Monte-Carlo R2 previews and predictions: Rune vs. Thiem, Fritz vs. Wawrinka

Holger Rune and Taylor Fritz will begin their Monte-Carlo campaigns on Wednesday against Grand Slam champions. Rune is facing Dominic Thiem, while Fritz may have a tough clay-court test on his hands in the form of Stan Wawrinka.

(WC) Dominic Thiem vs. (6) Holger Rune

At some point you have to think Thiem will get things turned around. There is no way to know exactly when it will happen, but early returns in his first match since parting ways from coach Nicolas Massu are encouraging. Thiem, who was still with Massu when the Austrian advanced to the Estoril quarterfinals last week, played his best match of the season in a 6-1, 6-4 rout of Richard Gasquet during first-round action at the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters on Monday.

Up next for Thiem on Wednesday is a first-ever meeting with Rune, who has endured some struggles of his own in 2023. The 19-year-old Dane started well enough with a fourth-round performance at the Australian Open and semifinal showing in Montpellier, but he has slumped since retiring from a Rotterdam match due to a shoulder injury. Although Rune reached the French Open quarters last spring, his other clay-court results in 2022 were thoroughly unspectacular. If Thiem plays like he did in round one, the 29-year-old has a chance to pull off an upset.

Pick: Thiem in 3

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Pick: Thiem in 3

(8) Taylor Fritz vs. (WC) Stan Wawrinka

Fritz and Wawrinka will be going head-to-head for the third time in their careers but for the first time in more than four years. Wawrinka has won both of their previous encounters; in four sets at Wimbledon in 2016 and 6-3, 6-4 at the 2018 Tokyo tournament. Of course, he will be facing a much different Fritz now. The 25-year-old American is up to No. 10 in the world and is sporting a 20-6 record so far this season. Although clay certainly isn’t his best surface, he is far from hopeless on it.

Wawrinka is in somewhat resurgent form, with 10 ATP-level match victories already this season and ranking comfortably inside the top 100 at No. 90. The 38-year-old Swiss is playing well, but he will need something even better in order to beat an opponent of Fritz’s quality. You also don’t know how Wawrinka will turn up physically on the heels of a three-set battle with Tallon Griekspoor on Monday. Fritz should get the job done, but it may not be easy on clay.

Pick: Fritz in 3

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