Monte-Carlo QF previews and predictions: Wawrinka vs. Nadal, Murray vs. Raonic

April 14, 2016 Ricky Match previews 70

Rafael Nadal and Stan Wawrinka are set for a blockbuster quarterfinal on Friday in Monte-Carlo. Andy Murray and Milos Raonic are also aiming for a spot in the last four of this season’s first clay-court Masters. 

(5) Rafael Nadal vs. (4) Stan Wawrinka

With Novak Djokovic shockingly out of the tournament after just one match, Rafael Nadal is arguably the favorite to capture his ninth title at the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters. The fifth-ranked Spaniard has not lifted the trophy since 2012, but his bid to restore order at what was once his most dominant event is off to a blistering start. Nadal cruised past Aljaz Bedene 6-3, 6-3 in his opener and although he ran into plenty of trouble at times against an in-form Dominic Thiem on Thursday, the fifth seed managed to score a 7-5, 6-3 victory. That avenged a recent loss in Buenos Aires, where Nadal had a match point against Thiem in the semifinals before falling 6-4, 4-6, 7-6(4).

Up next for the 14-time major champion is an 18th career showdown against Wawrinka, who is trailing the head-to-head series 14-3. Nadal has won four of their five previous clay-court meetings, including via a 7-5, 6-4 decision in their only Monte-Carlo encounter (also in the quarterfinals, in 2012). Wawrinka has advanced this week with straight-set defeats of Philipp Kohlschreiber and Gilles Simon. The fourth-ranked Swiss, however, will have to do much more than that in order to prove he has regained the form he lost in Indian Wells and Miami (fell to David Goffin in the fourth round of the former, bowed out to Andrey Kuznetsov in the second round of the latter). Although this is an ideal surface both both players, Wawrinka would rather go up against Nadal on a fast hard court or even grass.

Pick: Nadal in 3

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(10) Milos Raonic vs. (2) Andy Murray

Murray and Raonic will be squaring off for the eighth time in their careers when they battle for a semifinal spot on Friday. The head-to-head series stands at 4-3 in favor of Murray, but it is all tied up at one win apiece on clay. Raonic prevailed 6-4, 7-6(3) four years ago in Barcelona before Murray got the job done 6-4, 7-5 last spring in Madrid. They most recently faced each other in the semifinals of this year’s Australian Open, where the Scot survived 4-6, 7-5, 6-7(4), 6-4, 6-2.
Murray
Barring injury, both players are well on their way to the World Tour Finals. Raonic is No. 2 in the race with a 20-3 record, a title in Brisbane, and a runner-up finish in Indian Wells. Murray is not far behind at No. 3, but he has not done much since his performance Down Under. Despite playing their way into this showdown, both men have been alarmingly mediocre in Monte-Carlo. Raonic defeated Marco Cecchinato in straights before outlasting Pablo Cuevas and Damir Dzumhur in consecutive third-set tiebreakers. The adductor injury he sustained at the Aussie Open appeared to be a minor factor against Dzumhur. After beating Pierre-Hugues Herbert in three sets, Murray recovered from a set and a double-break deficit to overcome Benoit Paire 2-6, 7-5, 7-5 on Thursday. The second seed is more likely to scrape out a tough, ugly encounter–especially on a surface that slows down the Raonic serve.

Pick: Murray in 3

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70 Comments on Monte-Carlo QF previews and predictions: Wawrinka vs. Nadal, Murray vs. Raonic

  2. Both matches will be interesting! Rafa beating Wawa in 2 would be huge! Although I am yet to see the replay of his match vs Thiem I have hopes that this Rafa although not as sharp as he shoul be has more confidence and more belief which is key for Rafa’s game!

    Andy to beat Milosh in 3, I agree…

    Vamos Rafa! Fight to get back to your best!

    Reply

  5. I think that Rafa will win in 3 sets. Stan looks to be getting into decent form, but Rafa is not Simon!

    Rafa did show some mental toughness in his win over Thiem. I expect him to come out playing better against Stan.

    After murray’s battle with Paire, I think he will get the win over Raonic in 3 sets.

    Reply

    • I also agree. Raonic is not in top form although so far has managed to pull out the wins. Rafa is working his way back into form and with so many seeds falling by the wayside he knows he has a good chance. Bet the tourney directors are praying for good SFs and a Fedal final.

      Ditto, Andy. His first set was dismal but he got better and better as the match wore on. Getting tired of listening to the commentators putting him down. They rarely mention he had major back surgery and then in 2015 devoted all his efforts in bringing the Davis Cup back to GB.

      Reply

      • Yes, I agree that Andy should be getting some credit for that Davis Cup win.

        I get tired of hearing about how he is so weak on clay. We know that hard court and grass are Andy’s best surfaces, but he has shown that he’s an all court player who can do well in the dirt.

        I think a win like this one against Paire, a match that he should have lost, will give him a big boost. I am expecting Andy to play a lot better against Raonic.

        Reply

  6. Agree, Nny. Rafa is not Simon (much as I love Gilles). And I don’t believe Stan will have enough (backhand) to beat Rafa here, never mind take a set. Rafa is confident and on a roll. Rafa in 2.

    Andy in 3.

    Reply

  8. I havent watched the replay yet. What happened to Gillou – it’s not like he doesn’t know how to play WaWa on clay.

    Reply

    • Has more to do with Stan’s transformation (esp. on clay).

      Simon played him close on clay in 2012.

      But Stan has schooled him twice on clay since including today’s score of 6-1, 6-2 and last year’s RG 4th round meeting 6-1 6-4 6-2.

      He’s still a crybaby though (except when he beats Fedole).

      Reply

  9. Can’t pick between rafa and Stan… If he can keep his unforced errors down.. then he has the game to hit through Nadal on clay… can’t choose at all.

    Andy in the other game. Will have too much for raonic on clay

    Reply

  16. Andy wins 62 60.

    Raonic was out of sorts. Apparently, this is the first time Raonic has played a match and not served any aces. He was clearly below par; maybe not fully fit.

    Reply

  23. Rafa has always owned Stan; one of his losses to Stan was through injury and the other 2 were during his no confidence down time, but when he is firing Stan has no hope against him.

    Reply

  24. Must admit I stopped breathing when he was serving for the match. Trying not to get ahead of myself but watching Rafa today was like the old times.

    Reply

  25. So much better from Rafa today. Great to see.

    More of this please.

    If he can keep this up, there’s hope he can find his full form again (or close enough).

    Rafa in two over Muzza.

    Reply

  26. Great to see my boy winning in straights! I was hoping for this kind of win! Can’t watch the matches cause I am on the trip but hope to get the link to the match and watch it later and ENJOY!

    Vamos Champ!

    Reply

  28. I wa going to watch my recording of the match, but checked the result. I am very happy to see that Rafa got this win! Now I will finish watching it and see how Rafa did it.

    Reply

    • here’s my prediction about Rafa v Stan:

      ratcliff APRIL 14, 2016 AT 6:15 PM

      “Agree, Nny. Rafa is not Simon (much as I love Gilles). And I don’t believe Stan will have enough (backhand) to beat Rafa here, never mind take a set. Rafa is confident and on a roll. Rafa in 2.”

      3 picks right today! ?

      Reply

  29. For me, after Nole lost, it wasn’t going to be anyone but Rafa. He played bravely in IW, took his losses as positives because they were postives, and came through beautifully.

    Now I really am worried about FO… but it’s great for tennis.

    Reply

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