Monte-Carlo QF previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Schwartzman, Djokovic vs. Goffin

Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic are one round away from a potential blockbuster semifinal in Monte-Carlo. They first have to get past Diego Schwartzman and David Goffin, respectively, in Friday’s quarterfinals.

Diego Schwartzman vs. (4) Rafael Nadal

It was a tale of two matches for Nadal as he heads into quarterfinal action at the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters on Friday. The seventh-ranked Spaniard struggled in a 6-0, 5-7, 6-3 opening win over Kyle Edmund but picked up the pace dramatically to destroy Alexander Zverev 6-1, 6-1 on Thursday. The latter result is more along the lines of what can be expected from Nadal in Monte-Carlo, where he is 60-4 lifetime with nine titles. This week’s fourth seed is 21-5 in 2017 and 21-2 against opponents other than Roger Federer.

Up next for Nadal on Friday is a third career meeting with Schwartzman, who is 0-2 in the head-to-head series. The Argentine went down 6-2, 6-2 on the hard courts of Acapulco in 2013 and 7-6(5), 6-3, 7-5 at the 2015 U.S. Open. Playing the best tennis of his life right now, Schwartzman is up to a career-high ranking of No. 41 in the world and he will climb to at least 34th next week. So far in Monte-Carlo he has taken out Bernard Tomic, Roberto Bautista Agut, and Jan-Lennard Struff in straight sets. At just 5’7”, Schwartzman obviously cannot serve Nadal off the court and he is forced to hit shots consistently outside of his strike zone against Nadal’s heavy topspin. If nothing else, however, the underdog will make this an entertaining baseline battle.

Pick: Nadal in 2 losing more than 7 games

[polldaddy poll=9728747]

(10) David Goffin vs. (2) Novak Djokovic

Djokovic and Goffin will be going head-to-head for the sixth time in their careers on Friday. All five of their previous encounters have gone Djokovic’s way and he is 11-1 in total sets against Goffin. Their most memorable showdown came at the 2015 Cincinnati Masters, where the Belgian led by a double-break at 3-0 in the third set and then failed to win another game in a 6-4, 2-6, 6-3 defeat. They most recently faced each other at last year’s World Tour Finals, with Goffin taking an injured Gael Monfils’ place for one match and promptly getting blown out 6-1, 6-2.

It has hardly been one-way traffic for Djokovic so far in Monte-Carlo. The 2013 and 2015 champion escaped Gilles Simon 6-3, 3-6, 7-5 after Simon served for the match and he outlasted Pablo Carreno Busta 6-2, 4-6, 6-4 on Thursday. Such struggles do not come as a significant surprise given the Serb’s lackluster form (14-3 in 2017 with only one title in Doha) and an elbow injury that forced him out of Miami. Goffin is 21-7 this season following impressive clay-court wins this week over Nicolas Almagro and Dominic Thiem. Against the very best players in the world, however, Goffin often gets overpowered or breaks down on his own serve–or both. He also clearly lacks belief against Djokovic, so an easier time at the office than he what he endured in rounds two and three should be in store for the No. 2 seed.

Pick: Djokovic in 2

[polldaddy poll=9728793]

339 Comments on Monte-Carlo QF previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Schwartzman, Djokovic vs. Goffin

  1. Rafa in two and Djoko in three. Djoko will meet Rafa in the SF and this time Djoko will lose in two, no more lucky escape in three sets for him! He will use up all his luck in that Goffin match!

      • I doubt! Goffin takes the ball early and is quick around the court; he won’t be counterpunching the way PCB does. PCB just waiting for errors from Djoko, and was poor in his anticipation of Djoko’s shots.

        Goffin takes things into his own hand, PCB depends very much on how his opponent plays. Goffin’s issue is the same as Simon’s and PCB’s, i.e. lacking in belief that he can beat a top guy, and so losing from a winnable position. I’ve seen Goffin did just that time and again even when he had Djoko for e.g. on the edge. He just couldn’t take the next step (of beating these top guys).

      • The result of the match depends of which Djokovic will show up. And I agree that he most probably will be better tomorrow. Starting slow and building the momentum. That encounter with Rafa will be amazing.

  2. Schwartzman’s done well to get rid of Agut, but he doesn’t seem like the type of player who’ll give Rafa trouble. Goffin will likely cause a few issues but I’m not convinced he can close the door on Djokovic. Probably Rafa in 2 and Djoko in 3. Hope it goes like that as I’d like to see them face off again.

  3. I think Rafa never or rarely played Diego..he’s sure an underdog whom i bet will go out there and play the tennis of his life…u know nothing to lose attitude…oh,very dangerous indeed!..he’s also in hot form lately..and likes painting the lines with his shots all the time..don’t get fooled by his small stature,he’s sure can hit the ball hard and ran very fast…I think rafa will have his hands full tomorrow but if rafa of today come out to play then he should win in 2 but if rafa of yesterday instead…yeah,rafa in 3 IMO..

    • Nah, Rafa had played him twice, at Acapulco on clay in 2013 and USO in 2015, so Rafa knows him. Rafa won’t take things easy that’s for sure, he’s ever so cautious!

      • Oh really lucky?I just hope,rafa will not follow his AO trend..one day play great and the next day play like crap…but i’m ready to accept anything…when it comes to rafa,nothing is certain anymore…

        • I hope that Lucky is right about Schwartzman. But it’s as Mira Andi said. You never know with Rafa. As she said, if the Rafa who played Zverev today shows up, then he should get it gone in 2 sets. If the Rafa who played Edmund shows up, then it could go 3 sets. I just don’t like taking anything for granted.

          • NNY, Rafa didn’t play badly in that match with Kyle, he just serve badly at crucial moments. He was on track to win in straight sets but faltered, lost concentration and lost his serve, and then things went messy for him.

            Like what Rafa said in his post match interview, Kyle played with nothing to lose attitude after losing the first set 6-0 and so he’s hitting his FH as hard as possible every point. Rafa also mentioned the heavier conditions (and heavier ball) after the sunshine had gone down during set two/three, making it more difficult for his topspin FH to be effective and helping Kyle hitting without missing as the heavier ball won’t fly off course so easily.

            Read Rafa’s post match presser, it’s interesting reading his analysis.

          • Lucky,

            Thanks for the info about Rafa’s commments in his post-match presser about Edmund. I usually try to read his thoughts because it’s illuminating. What he said makes sense.

            Thanks for letting me know! It helps!
            ?

  4. It is amusing seeing how some fans here think that Rafa’s attitude is different each day and they make remnarks like which Rafa will play. They seriously underestimate Rafa. The same Rafa comes everyday but how he plays depends on how well he can play. It depends on a lot of factors including the opponent. But Rafa is always Rafa. Trying to find a way to win. It is easy for armchair tennis coaches to say Rafa should be aggressive and he should have done this and he should have done that.

  5. It was actually a very close and tense match when Rafa and Schwartzman played at US Open last year. It was like 7-6 6-3 7-5. Both guys are playing better now and are clay courters so this could be a good one. Still think Rafa wins fairly comfortably after last round’s demolition.

  6. Don’t get too excited about Rafa yet. He was good today but not excellent. It was tacticall well played and he was consistent but Zverev was BAD. I am hoping Rafa will keep improving and get rid of that hesitation.

    Djokovic keeps surviving and if he survives Goffin as well, he will not be easy at all.

    • VR: I agree that Zverev was bad today, but (unlike the first set against Edmund who was pretty much beating himself) I think Rafa had quite a bit to do with that, especially at the beginning of the match when he really set the tone. He came out aggressively and never let Zverev settle into any kind of rhythm. I think Rafa’s level today beats Novak’s current form.

    • vr,

      You are echoing my thoughts. I did see highlights of Rafa’s match and it’s true that Zverev was not on his game, but Rafa did look a lot sharper. It’s always hard to judge when the opponent doesn’t play well. That’s why I am not taking anything for granted. We still need to see consistency from Rafa. That’s why I am cautious in thinking that matches will be easy. I would like to think that Rafa will continue to play well and get his game together.

      I absolutely agree with your last sentence about Novak. He does indeed keep surviving these matches and that will actually help him build up some confidence. If you can pull out a match that you were in danger of losing, then it can work in your favor. It will be interesting to see him play Goffin. I do think that if he gets by Goffin, it’s not going to be easy.

      One match at a time for Rafa!

    • VR, nobody said Djoko is easy. Djoko could gut it out over three sets match of match, that shown his determination. Rafa must be at his best to beat Djoko, whether Djoko is lack luster or not, because Rafa fears Djoko (sad to say that)!

      • yeah. Unfortunately I haven’t seen the best of Rafa yet and we all know consistency is his biggest enemy these days. However, the last match was encouraging and the forehand was better. He can rev up the explosiveness on the forehand quite a bit and he is still giving a bit too much air on his backhand. Of course he can do that on clay to construct points (something he does better than anyone) but he’s GOT to have that flat CC and even the DTL backhand working for him to finish points.

        There is still hesitation on the DTL forehand but it is getting better. I was satisfied with the second serve return though! Hoping he will move up a gear today.

        It is the ideal time to stop his losing streak against Djokovic.

        • I agree, VR, it’s SUCH an ideal time for Rafa to turn it around… The last time Rafa lost 7 straight to Nole, it was at Monte Carlo where he turned it around! With Rafa playing arguably at a better level than Nole right now, and with Nole not at his best, AND the fact that it’s at MC, it really feels like the stars will be aligned for Rafa to finally beat Nole IF THEY ACTUALLY PLAY. As has been the case for a while now, I believe that the the edge that Nole will have on Rafa when they play again is a mental edge. If Rafa can’t get over that mental hump vs. Nole, it won’t matter how well/bad Rafa’s form is right now. I’m sure Hawks would agree with that… One thing is for sure- I feel like Rafa has got to at least get a damn SET off him again! If/When they play this clay season leading into RG, I really think that it could be a major turning point for each of their respective seasons for whichever one beats the other…

      • Agree Lucky and VR!!..Consistency and lack of belief to beat Novak i think..is it just me or the edge on novak side if they’re meet again tomorrow?Although,i’m really really glad if Rafa prove me wrong!..My God!It’s going on long enough!Lol!!

  7. Ricky writes: “The Argentine went down 6-2, 6-2 on the hard courts of Acapulco in 2013…”

    There is a mistake on the ATP website, the Acapulco tournament was played on clay courts in 2013. The tournament switched from clay to hard courts in 2014.

    • Djoko maybe but not Cuevas. Cuevas not coming to play today, like he’s tanking the match, very disappointing! Might as well let Stan reached the QF, when I think Stan would put in better effort at least.

  8. Rafa played excellent match against Zverev! It was tactically very well prepared and the execution was brilliant. One should ask himself why did Zverev look so hopeless out there when he was clearly in form and demolished his previous opponents? Well, that’s where Rafa’s role comes up! Rafa simply did not let him play his game! Zverev tried the same as he did in that AO match: hitting hard and running at every ball, trying to outhit Rafa but Rafa was defending in a fine manner and used every opportunity to switch to offense or use drop shots! This tactics is so much important should he meet with Nole.

    One thing I agree, and that’s what I have been saying all along: Nole is the toughest opponent Rafa could get on clay! Rafa is doing fine and he should be ready for Nole!

    • It’s Rafa’s fault that Djoko becomes his toughest opponent on clay. Rafa lost his confidence in 2011 after that two consecutive losses at IW followed by that close Miami loss. Rafa had never lost a Masters final to Djoko prior to 2011.

      Rafa was tentative at Miami and Rome final that year whilst Djoko was aggressive; that two wins in clay finals over Rafa had made Djoko believed that he could beat Rafa on clay, even in a final. Djoko was super aggressive at MC in 2013, almost bageled Rafa in the first set; from then he started to beat Rafa every year on clay – 2014 at Rome, 2015 at MC and RG; 2016 at Rome.

      • Nah. Give credit where credit is due.

        Nole in so many FO finals and a title plus so many clay titles.

        Nole has proven that he deserves to be Rafa’s biggest challenge on clay.

        Someone has to be lol.

          • It got to start somewhere right? Imagine Rafa winning those two clay finals in 2011, Djoko won’t be so confident facing Rafa on clay! Success breed success, I thought we kept saying that about Rafa, that Rafa must win a title now for him to feel confident again?

            Do remember, beating Fed on grass and Rafa on clay were big deals back then; beating them on their fav surfaces gave these players confidence (in facing them in future, or when playing on these surfaces in future).

          • @lucky,
            True, but Novak came close to beating Rafa even before that! He is grown up training on clay, he is great clay court player and he had always challenged Rafa on clay more than Fed to that matter. It was just the matter of time and circumstances for Novak to beat Rafa on clay…confidence loss followed naturally after Rafa lost his aura…

          • Yes nats, like I said, it got to start somewhere, but it’s unfortunate for Rafa, that it started so soon just right after his glorious year of 2010.

            Had Rafa not gotten the virus at Doha, and then injured his thigh while playing Ferrer at AO in 2011, his 2011 might turn out very different. He might be able to hold off Djoko for another year or so, had he won that Miami final, and not getting his confidence dented.

            Of course we could only speculate about what if; but we could see how important those two wins on clay were for Djoko, that he celebrated like he’s at the top of the world (he wasn’t no.1 yet at that time).

          • Don’t disagree with you LS in terms of gaining confidence, but Nole was a big part of that, not Rafa.

            Everybody said Nole was crazy for saying he was in control of the match at RG in 2006 after having to retire and that Rafa was beatable on clay.

            Sure, it was a ridiculous statement, but he BELIEVED.

            And belief makes all the difference at the elite level.

          • “Had Rafa not gotten the virus at Doha, and then injured his thigh while playing Ferrer at AO in 2011, his 2011 might turn out very different. ”

            Related: Two part question for all Rafans:
            A. Has Rafa ever lost a match when healthy and
            2. When, if ever, was the last time.

            #Musings

  9. ATM Rafas not playing Madrid or Rome, and its not 2011 its 2017, and hes not playing Novak hes playing Diego (cant spell his name), lets see if both get to each other first, thats before we start writing off this player or that player ….

  10. Another interesting day for rafa today!…Urgh!I can’t wait to see his form! ..whether his superb perfomance yesterday will be continued[oh!i wish!]…or Diego will have his own story to tell?And Rafa will play late,that means the ball will get heavier when the temperature get colder…considering his struggled against Kyle with these condition?But,i have no doubt that rafa will prevail..it’s just a matter of how many sets…[insyaallah]..

      • Eugene!…As much as i adore Novak,i have to say “Please God!let Goffin win today..just so Rafa can win his 10th this weekend…he really really need this win very badly”!Thank u God!…There Eugene!Hope u satisfied with my answer..

        • I was just curious about you preference. Some users here expressed their wish for Nadal to finally meet Djoko and see where his level currently is. However I think this Novak is not yet the real Novak, so he’s not a good ‘point of measurement’ if I can say that. I see what you saying, Rafa needs this title. Goffin is good, but Rafa would play with more confidence against him.

          • Eugene…To me,at this point winning a title here much more important than to see where Rafa’s level at the moment..if he win,he can restore back his confidence to the fullest and break the invisible wall that still planted very firmly in his mind..this win can solve many problem for Rafa..

      • So far Goffin has played very well and Novak looks a bit out of sorts. But we have to see how Novak responds in the second set, can Goffin keep it up?

  11. The tennis channel commies have taken note of Novak’s demeanor in this match. Negative body language and lack of a spark or intensity.

    Goffin came out focused and has played as though he believes he can win. But he cannot afford any letdown,

    • This time Goffin really believes. If Nole is to win, he will really earn it this time. Not like against Carreno or Simon. Might be 2:1 for Goffin.

    • Yeah Nny…the uninterested look is back on his face as if he didn’t care what’s going to happen..

      And,it’s really good to see Goffin stay with Novak at every point..it’s not easy to do that..if he can create a 1st win over Novak today,it’s going to be huge achievement for him..

      • MA,

        Well it looks like I got my answer. Goffin didn’t keep up the high level of play and Novak got himself into the match. Goffin had his chances early in the second set. It’s not enough to play one great set of tennis against Novak.

        • Yeah Nny.But,there’s 1 more sets to be played..let’s see whether Goffin will be able to rise to the occassion or not…

  12. If this goes three, Nole will win. I think that fall looked worse than it was. Nole seems more awake and in it. Part of me wants Nole to win but I’d like Goffin to get his first win over Nole too. It’s a win-win.

  13. Nole gained rhythm and playing well, while Goffin’s level dropped. Exactly what my fear was: Novak to use this match for building confidence and getting into the groove for tomorrow…

  14. Goffin’s body language poor now. He seems resigned to his fate. Pity, he has the tools to beat Djoko but lacks the killer instinct when it matters.

    • hello ed. You are right about our man Goffin — he has the tools and right now he’s coming close but he’s….bound to blow it. Geez, the same with Federer and Andy vs Goffin.

      • Goffin doesn’t have the mental toughness to beat the big guys. He has hung in there and tried to break back, but Novak”s serving has been very strong.

  15. Wow that was a big hold for Novak. Big opportunity blown for Goffin… Let’s see if he can keep pressuring Novak’s service games. First he’s gotta not go down a double break!

    • I’d be so proud of Goffin if he could beat Nole, Federer, or Andy. He’s lost to each of them 5 times…going on 6 times to Novak.

  16. And I don’t think Nole will need to fall down and roll on the ground or rip a shirt to get psyched up if Rafa is across the net. These close matches with Simon, PCB and a refresher course vs Goffin have been good tune-ups for Nole.

      • Nny!…Now,at least we can’t underestimate Goffin anymore..he’s already showed us that he can stand at the same level with one of the most difficult player in history….now,that’s something!

        • As Ed said, Goffin has the tools to beat any of them but he caves in vs Nole, Andy and Federer. He’s made it tough a couple times with Andy and Nole… but this would be HUGE!

  17. Oh My God!I can’t believe Goffin can produce such a high quality tennis like this!Against Novak of all player!!Full full credit to him even if he lost later..

      • Well it just goes to show you!

        I guess Goffin believes after all!

        You never can tell in this sport!

        Goffin did not fail! He outplayed Novak when it counted the most. He won!

        Congratulations to Goffin! I think Benny picked him to best Novak! Well done

    • No, MA, I’m happy! Nole has beaten David 5 times. I want him to beat Andy and especially Federer …I’m a big Goffin fan.

      I don’t expect Goffin to beat Rafa here at all ….they’ve never met. And it’s clay…Goffin’s made it close once before vs Nole.

      • You’re a fan of Goffin rc?Oh cool!!!In that case,big big congrats to u rc!With this perfomance Goffin deserves to win this title rc..it’s a shame cause i want rafa to win as well!hehehe..But,if Goffin win..i will be happy for him also rc…God!He’s sooooo awesome today!!!..And novak too of coz!!

  18. He made it….he won Yay Goffin!!! His first win over Nole.

    And Nole as classy as it gets congratulating David. God, I’m so happy right now 😀

  19. I don’t think Nole wanted to go all out to win this match and risk re injuring his arm.

    He is saving himself for Roland Garros.

    (See what I did just there?)

  20. But seriously, very happy for Gopffin taking out Nole today.

    Sure on one level I want to see Rafa make the semi and beating Nole breaking the streak of bad losses, but more importantly is a 10th MC title, becoming the only player to win 10 Masters titles at one event and helping to restore his confidence.

    One step at a time.

    VAMOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOS!!!!!

    • Absolutely right, ratcliff. Can’t remember last time I saw Novak getting dominated from the baseline like that. Those two desperation drop shots said it all. Take nothing away from Goffin.

    • Now the path is open for Rafa. He needs to win this title!

      I am okay with him not meeting Novak right now. There will be other chances. He needs to run his 10th title here! That is the missing part of the puzzle!

      Go get it, Rafa!

  21. As I said this morning, Rafa’s match would be a very late start. Sunset is in 35 minutes and Rafa hasn’t started.

    Can’t see this one finishing. I don’t think there are lights are there?

  22. Djokovic looks done, idk how the guy is supposed to win another GS or any tourney at this point. maybe he’ll find a way back but at this point that’s hard to believe. Defending 3600 points these next 5 weeks with Rom, Madrid and RG…could possibly drop to 5th in the rankings. Yikes.

    I hope he finds a way to play well again because it would be sad if he didn’t but he looks awful. Maybe play a 250 to gain some confidence?

    • He will play his best again, The Don. There was some glimpses of it today. He really didn’t like losing to Goffin in MC like that. He was polite to Goffin but his face showed a different emotion on his way out. I think this loss will help him get focused. He came out with a weird look on his face (distracted and amused) and lost that first set lamely. He decided to play in the second set and it was almost enough to win him the match. Goffin fought and competed better today vs Nole than I’ve ever seen him. So some credit to Goffin…but it is time for Nole to get serious and start competing like we know he can.

        • No, imo this look was different in Rio and the loss in a completely different context / time of his life. Blowing his Olympic chance in the middle of personal issues was a devastation deeper than losing in MC to Goffin. This will loss is going to motivate him.

  23. I don’t think Nole wanted to make Rafans happy tomorrow.

    Either that, or he was only kidding.

    Or just being polite.

    Unless he’s injured.

    • that would be a long injury. outside of maybe 1 match vs delpo this year every match he played he has looked horrendous for his standards.

    • MA,

      I had to go out, but am following the score. I also recorded the match. Am I on my way home now.

      Vamos Rafa!

  24. Seriously, is it just me that can’t see this match being played before darkness?

    That would seriously throw Rafa’s chances of a title in jeopardy .

  25. Diego, Goffin, AVR and Pouille stand in Rafa’s way for a 10th MC title.

    Hoping he won’t feel extra pressure as the only Big Four (plus CryBabyMirkasRight) left.

  26. This could only be good news for all you Rafa fans who want him to win the title! Titles breed confidence, no matter who you have to face.

  27. Nadal has gotta take the title. If he doesn’t, that will be crazy. Goffin could pose some problems, but he should still be able to get by him.

  28. It was a good sign that they were breaking each other! That meant both have breakable serves! So advantage Rafa as he is very good at defending break points!

        • Rafa played barely well enough to beat the No. 41 player.

          As I said already, happy for the win (but not how he got there).

          (Sorry you can’t keep it about tennis but understandable, because my tennis analysis, unlike yours, is impeccable.)

          #maryneedshelpwithtennisanalysis

          • hawkeye losing his touch with tennis analysis. If two players have breakable serves, the one who is better at defending break points wins.
            #NotRocketScience
            #hawkeyefeelingHisYears

          • Not about the match result Mary as I’ve already explained. It’s about his form going forward.

            As I said, happy for the win and the chance for MC No. 10 (but not his level of play).

            Too bad you have to resort to personal attacks. You shouldn’t concern yourself personally with how I think Rafa played.

  29. This Diego guy really hits so hard! Average ground stroke speed is 124 kph, 5 over Rafa’s! Thankfully Rafa wins the first set; I hope he’s calm now and and breaks down Diego’s game.

    Rafa always hits to opponent’s BH and now he often gets burnt by their hard hitting I/O CC FH. He should think of hitting to opponent’s FHs at times to keep them guessing.

        • Only scoreboard watching but I KNOW it’s bad because he’s held just four of eight service games.

          He’s obviously horrible in this match.

          He’s only won half of his service points.

          Those are vulgar service stats.

          At least he’s back on serve, not that that counts for anything in this match.

          • Ok Hawks..thanks for your thought…very different from sascha’s match isn’t it?I think play in cold and heavy condition affected him…but,the good thing is,he’s winning now and more importantly,his mental strength is superb despite the non stop onslaught from Diego..that’s really good news indeed..

          • Yeah could be that for sure MA and the way he ended the match was fantastic. I think he won the last 12 or 14 points.

    • There were one or two people on here who said Diego might have the game to give Rafa a challenge.

      I not watching it because I am out, but as long as Rafa wins, that’s fine with me,

      • That’s me Nny..i’ve seen Diego on action against Agut and i knew immediately that Diego can give rafa trouble..He dispatched Agut in straight sets..and Agut like all Spanish players is a clay court specialist…to defeat him in starights that means there’s something really good in him..and he shows us atm…

        • He’s gotten even stronger this year compared to last. This guy Diego. But Rafa is going to break back….! Yessss

          This is Schwartzman’s first masters 1000 QF!

  30. If Diego can overcome the deficit and live to win a set, I might put him in the toughness category with Dominika Cibulkova. If Diego loses in straights…nope not up to Dominika’s mentality.

    • Rafa is leaving it all out there to get this over in 2. But Diego didn’t get discouraged being down to start the set. Now he’s broken Rafa. Yeah, this guy is dogged and determined – never say die attitude. Definitely reminds me of Dominika.

  31. Diego up a break in the second set. Rafa is hitting right back at him; Rafa is playing a one dimensional game right now, no varieties.

    • When I watch this match, I’m sure it’s more about Rafa hitting short.

      The guy can’t hold serve FFS.

      Nothing new.

      • Well, I haven’t been thinking Rafa was chronically hitting short. I thought Rafa played great! But I bow to the specialists – it’s just my humble opinion when speaking of Rafa.

          • Okay thanks — he needs to clean up his serve! I didn’t look at the stats for any match today. But honestly, I thought Rafa was hitting deep enough but I give Diego credit for hanging in with Rafa, hitting deep too. Eventually I thought Rafa had more in the tank and started adding variety.

            Did Rafa serve better vs Sascha? I didn’t see his other matches this week.

            Rafa has Goffin, whom he’s never played, ARV or Pouille. I guess I’m most worried about Pouille. I want Rafa to win another title here.

          • Shhh Augusta. Now we can’t use the excuse that Rafa wasn’t familiar with his game if he loses.

            At least we still have:
            1. He doesn’t want to play 100% and risk injury before French Open.
            2. He is already injured.
            3. He’s just being polite.
            4. He was only kidding.
            5. All of the above.
            6. Some or all of 2-3 AND 1 or 2 (but not both).

          • I just looked at all match stats for Rafa v Diego and Nole v David.

            low percentages for all of them in points won on serve. A bit higher in the Nole v Goffin match but nothing spectacular. Nole is not hitting a big serve consistently.

            ROS….we are talking about the top ranked ROS this year!:1) Andy,2) Rafa, 3)Nole, 4)Diego, yes Diego Schwatzman, 5) Kei 6) Goffin!
            http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/stats/leaderboard?page=serve

            These were two great matches, I thought 😀

          • I just thought that stat was amazing. I like tennis analytics.

            And, to be fair, I was only scoreboard watching.

            I did see some great highlights from Rafa posted on twitter.

            So I’ll definitely have a look on TennisTV.

            Speaking of stats, thanks for that rc. Wow, that really helps put it into perspective and it’s amazing that those two matches featured 4 of the 6 best ROS.

            Diego being the lowest ranked which suggests he must have a relatively low rate of holding serve…lemme look. He’s 69th in serve rating which isn’t terrible but significantly below his ranking. 72 in holding serve getting broken about 30% of the time.

            On clay, Rafa’s no. 1 ROS rating winning 42% of his return games. Diego is 4th winning 39% of his return games.

            And if you filter your search by just clay, the top four ROS rankings in order are, can you guess?

            Rafa, Goffin, Nole and Diego.

            Wow. That’s amazing.

          • I remember you like stats. I do too but I get lazy. If you specify for clay, look at the leaders….particularly ROS and you see Diego up there…Rafa is the best but Diego is no slouch he can bring down someone’s service % right up there with the very best.
            http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/stats

            Okay…you already looked at it. LOL…
            To me, on clay you can throw out that #41 ranking number for Diego – he’s a tougher customer than that!

          • Axiom: Rafa, when not injured, is invincible.
            All deductions about Rafa’s losses have to be based on this.
            An axiom, as you know, is a self evident truth.

    • What a slugfest! Diego’s error count in mounting — he’s the first to blink and can’t keep this up vs the King of Clay. He’s pretty good though, Diego.

  32. Yes! Come on Rafa one more break and you’ll win the match! At least Rafa change up a little bit – hit some high looping shots, hits more to Diego’s FH and serves intelligently that last point of his service game.

    He’s so good at the net, now using drop shots so intelligently! Sigh, he should play this way earlier in the match.

    Yes, Rafa breaks and wins the match, 6-4, 6-4! Thank goodness not a third set! Well done Rafa, vamos! I thought Rafa is going to lose the second set, but well done Rafa, to change up in the last few games and Diego couldn’t handle those.

  33. None of these outside-the-top-ten cats can take the King of Clay, even when he’s playing sub-par for his standard… Rafa for the title!

  34. This season has been awesome to be honest. I’m loving all the upsets and deep runs from underdogs at the tournaments along with Fed Rafa and Stan as the top 3 in the race and Kyrgios starting to mature and consistently become a threat too. And I’m just fine with Djoker and Murray struggling lol. Honestly couldn’t be happier with the way this year has gone on the ATP. Rafa needs to win this title now. He deserves his first of the season, and it would be nice to see him take down Barcelona next week as well.

  35. Only saw last set from the period when Diego took the lead at 3-2 until the end. Rafa seemed to have a bit of a lull there, but Diego was on fire for a few games. Couldn’t sustain it and Nadal really picked it up in the last several games. He clearly didn’t want to go three sets in the cold.

  36. Nny!Yay!Congrats to u for rafa’s win!Hope u will feel muuuucchhhh better with this win Nny!To semis we go!!!Wooohooo!!

    • MA,

      I checked the score when I got home. So happy to see that Rafa won!

      Now I am going to watch my recording of the match.

      Rafa is in the semis!

      Go get this title Rafa!

  37. On to Goffin who must be really on a high! But as we have seen, most players crash out after defeating a big name so Goffin may have a let down tomorrow!Hopefully Rafa will not have to work too hard to be in the final and will be ready to eat for breakfast (or is it dinner) whoever emerges from the other half!

    • It is possible that Goffin could have a letdown after his big win over Novak. One can never be absolutely sure, because this win could give Goffin real belief and confidence. He certainly earned this win. How much it took out of him we won’t know until tomorrow.

      I am hoping that Rafa can capitalize on this opportunity. I am sure he will be ready for Goffin and not take him for granted.

      I don’t care about stats. Rafa won and that’s what matters. His serve percentage may go up in the next match. But it’s all about winning.

      Vamos Rafa!

      • Here’s something for hawkeye. Use your ears to roll back the years! And clear the brain fog!
        “.. and it has created positive results for learning disabled and autistic children as well as older Alzheimer`s victims.
        And it`s useful for any kind of brain fog or dullness, even emotional instability. It can improve memory and focus, and it`s even made some a little smarter. It seems to work for everyone regardless of mental condition.
        How to Do This Simple Exercise
        With your feet pointing straight ahead, spread them apart about shoulder width. Grab your right earlobe with the thumb and finger of your left hand. Cross over your left arm and do the same using your right hand on the left earlobe. ……”
        Link to the full article
        http://www.naturalnews.com/028207_brain_health_exercise.html#

  38. On a somewhat related note, I am becoming more and more confident each tournament that Fedal will finish 2017 in the top two spots in the rankings…

  39. Diego keeping Rafa defensive and breaks again for 3-4. Would have been nice to see Rafa resist being pushed back so much but he wasn’t horrible.

  40. Very strange game from Rafa to hold for 5-4. Played some good points and finally won after three deuces. However many points he hit very short and he started sweating suddenly like crazy and the sun is down with the crowd wearing sweaters and heavy jackets.

    • Hawks..I feel strange myself when i looked at Rafa sweating like he take a bath with it!Camera showed Diego’s coach,Chela wears a thick jacket like he’s in winter season and rafa sweating non stop!…I think maybe because of the nervousness and adrenaline on high flow atm…

      • Yeah it’s a sign of his anxiety IMO. Also the cold night air doesn’t suit his play.

        However while not at his best, he managed to not let it severely affect his play although it very well may have against a much better opponent. That said, Diego punched above his weight class no doubt.

  41. Rafa plays well to get his third break to take the first set.

    Still. 18 UEs from Diego vs 13 from Rafa. A pretty high number but it didn’t really seem that way.

    Rafa was better than I thought other than the first game.

  42. Great comeback from Rafa to break for 2-0 after being down 40-0 including a stretched out wide FHDTL get winner that lands just inside the corner.

  43. Now this was Rafa’s second bad service game failing to consolidate with a double fault and three consecutive UEs to get broken to 15.

    Too cold and more than half of the crowd has left.

    Diego serving 1-2.

  44. Rafa’s fourth poor service game with lack of zip on his serve and dropping the ball short repeatedly to go down 0-40. A good serve from Rafa but Diego with a good return takes control of the point getting his third break of the match now up a break serving at 3-2.

  45. Diego holds to love consolidating the break for 4-2 but his serves landed mostly in the middle of the box and Rafa really needed to do more with his returns but instead let Diego take comtrol of the points.

  46. Save a couple of points, Rafa played a very strong and agressive game taking control and holding for 3-4 still down a break.

    Knowing Rafa goes on to win the next three to take the match, this was the turning point where Rafa plays it out strongly.

    Happy to be watching aware of the outcome of the match.

      • MA, the loss in speed is infinitesimal and cannot be judged with the naked eye but at the elite level that Rafa plays, it can make a difference between a winner and a just out ball.

        • So we can judge indirectly that an elite athlete has lost some speed in his foot/reflexes due to injury or age when his error count goes up as compared to when he was at his peak. This would also be apparent by the fall in his wins.

          • Other greats like fed and Agassi can make up for small losses in speed but apparently not for our one dimensional Rafa.

            (Hint: he’s more than just speed. Always was and still is.)

          • That doesn’t alter the fact that he has lost speed. But he should be able to compensate by introducing more variety and improving his serve. But our man’s life is complicated by his injuries. I do not think any other player would have been able to play at top level for so long as Rafa has done despite his physical problems. I think some tennis player ( Tipsa? Federer?) said that Rafa is an inspiration to athletes struggling with injuries.

        • Nah, negligible physically.

          Mary slips up saying it can’t be seen by eye just indirectly trying to recover from the truth lol.

        • Okay Mary…I certainly respect your opinion and view very very much everytime i read your comments..Thank u for responding to me..

          • Mary knows a lot about tennis and I respect her tennis opinions too even if I don’t always agree.

          • Yeah Hawks…even she’s always took a dig at me..it doesn’t matter..i value her precious opinion like i value all my dear and smart and intelligent poster’s here..every each one of u guys!U GUYS ARE AWESOME!!!

      • MA,

        Thank you for posting this link of that unbelievable shot from Rafa! As I watched my recording of the match, I had to stop and rewind that shot to see it a few times!

        Now that is vintage Rafa!

        The shot of the match for sure! Rafa’s still got it!
        ??

      • If you see the existing studies on the age related performance of elite tennis athletes, there is a slow decline after 29. With better training, diet and maybe with doping, the age at which performance deteriorates may go up but it definitely happens. Although the fall in speed/ reflexes would not be evident to viewers, the difference in results would be dramatic. As a matter of fact, outside athletics, a man would still be considered in his physical prime in his thirties.

        • Greats in tennis are able to adapt for small drops in speed. Agassi and fed to name two.

          Many players are now playing their best tennis into their 30s and Wawrinka winning two slams in his thirties.

          But that apparently doesn’t fit the narrative nor the confirmatory bias of a Rafan.

          Strange.

          • The problem with hawkeye and MA and some other Rafans here is that they do not bother to examine the research on this. Instead they just state their opinion over and over again hoping that would convince everyone.

          • The problem is is that Mary and some others are generalizing and assuming Rafa’s too slow and injured to return to being the best again.

            I still believe in Rafa’s potential to adapt to small invisible by the naked eye loss of speed like other top players despite past injuries.

          • I did not say Rafa will not be the best again. Considering the rest of the big 4 are aging too, he has every chance of dominating unless nextgen come up.

      • Mira, whether Rafa lost any speed or not, its the ability to anticipate the next shot that can matter. Rafa was already anticipating the next shot from Diego and moving in that direction, and so he was able to get there to hit that unbelievable passing shot. He’s still so strong and powerful, hitting that shot from out wide position yet it just touched the corner! Amazing!

        The ability to anticipate or to read your opponent’s next move is important, as you have a bit more time to get ready, unlike just waiting for and reacting to your opponent’s next move.

        Rafa wasn’t quite good in his anticipation skills lately and that’s why he looked hesitant and was late for his next shot, making him looked like he had lost some speed (he might have but only very very slightly. Of course we’re not comparing him to his 19/20 yo self when his speed was incredible).

        • Lucky!Very agree with u!…One of rafa skills is that he’s very good in anticipating his opponents next shot…take a look at his AO 14 semi final against Roger and USO 10 final against Novak[and this is just a few example of it]…God!He’s so so amazing in that matches Lucky!…I think if he win MC,he can change many things whether it involve his game or his mind…

        • Not just about speed. Many players adapt as can Rafa. I believe his greatness can allow him to do this like other great players in their 30s.

          Rafa hesitates like most players due to lack of confidence in those moments.

          • Awww Hawks!!You!!..U makes me love u more and more!!hahaha…Hey..you’re also have a kind heart u know!…U just praised Mary for her tennis knowledge despite you guys very rarely seen eye to eye in everything..it’s gonna take a BIG heart to do that Hawks!And u got that in u..not to mention,you’ve been an Angel to me…To me,you’re not only kind,big hearted,generous,smart,intelligent,full of knowledge and i’m very honoured to got to know u here Hawks..and Nny,rc,amy and other’s as well..Thank u for willing to be my internet friend..okay Boss?Hehe..

  47. Wow vintage Rafa opening up his shoulder and letting loose hitting deep and agressive to break back at love to get back on serve at 4 all reminding me just how good Rafa used to do this more consistently.

  48. Wow 14 straight points from Rafa to seal the win representing just how good Rafa can still be and HAS to be to win tournaments.

    IMO it’s not about age.

    Overall an uneven match from Rafa and his serve certainly let him down too often for my liking.

    That said a much better match than I concluded from scoreboard watching earlier today.

    Rafa cleaned up his game in the second set with seven UEs (20 for the match).

    Still a funny stat to see winning the match in two despite winning just slightly more than half his service points.

    Sorry y’all have to listen to my bitching ’bout Rafa all the time haha.

  49. Here are references to a few articles which also refer to the research on which they are based:
    Peak performance and Age among Super Athletes : Track and Field, Swimming, Baseball, Tennis and Golf by Richard Schulz and Christine Curnow.

    Science and Practice of strength training by Vladimir M. Zatsiorsky, William J. Kraemer
    The demand in Forensic Medicine to assess the Age of Adolescents and Young Adults : Crime Procedures ( A contribution of the German Academy of Forensic Odonto-Stomatology)
    Ageing and Human Muscle: Observations from Sweden:( Canadian Journal of Applied Physiology,vol 18(1), pp2-18,1993)
    The Jock V. The Clock by Claudia Kalb (Newsweek, May 24,1999)
    When does a footballer get old? – The Sport Digest
    Breaking down thirty-year-old running backs by T. Cockcroft

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.




Skip to toolbar