Monte-Carlo QF previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Rublev, Tsitsipas vs. Davidovich Fokina

Rafael Nadal’s quest for a 12th Monte-Carlo title continues on Friday in the quarterfinals against red-hot Russian Andrey Rublev. Meanwhile, Stefanos Tistsipas takes on Alejandro Davidovich Fokina for a spot in the last four.

(3) Rafael Nadal vs. (6) Andrey Rublev

Rafael Nadal has had a long-standing love affair with the clay courts of the Monte-Carlo Country Club. The King of Clay has won a record 11 titles, starting in 2005–when he beat Guillermo Coria–through his most recent crown in 2018 over Kei Nishikori.

The Spaniard has been as ferocious as ever this week. He predictably dismantled Federico Delbonis in the second round and gave the No. 14 seed Grigor Dimitrov a complete shellacking in the round of 16 on Thursday.

Andrey Rublev earned his spot in the quarterfinals with a grueling two-hour and 45-minute third-round win over another Spaniard, Roberto Bautista Agut (7-6(2), 5-7, 6-3). The Russian is one of the most in-form players on tour at the moment, but he hasn’t performed well against Nadal in his previous matches. Rublev hasn’t gotten close to taking a set from Nadal in two hard-court matches.

With Nadal seemingly in full mastery of his heavy forehand, the world No. 2 should find his way into another semifinal.

Cheryl pick: Nadal in 2

Ricky pick: Nadal in 2

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WWW: Nadal vs. Rublev?

(4) Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Stefanos Tsitsipas ran into a bit of controversy earlier this week after telling chair umpire Arnaud Gabas during a doubles match, “You are a disgrace, you’re a disgrace. Go back to Futures, that’s where you belong,” over a controversial line call. But the encounter didn’t affect his singles performance.

Tsitsipas took out the Australian Open semifinalist Aslan Karatsev in the second round and Cristian Garin routinely in the third round. He has looked sharp and confident all tournament so far. He faces surprise quarterfinalist Alejandro Davidovich Fokina on Friday.

Davidovich Fokina already has some impressive upset wins to his account in Monte-Carlo. The young Spaniard took out Alex de Minaur in the first round, Matteo Berrettini in the second, and Lucas Pouille in the third.

Tsitsipas is striking the ball well and he is a talented clay-court player in general. Look for Davidovich Fokina’s run to come to an end on Friday.

Cheryl pick: Tsitsipas in 2

Ricky pick: Tsitsipas in 2

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WWW: Tsitsipas vs. Davidovich Fokina?

15 Comments on Monte-Carlo QF previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Rublev, Tsitsipas vs. Davidovich Fokina

  1. Tsitsipas is playing well, really well. He’s come a long way since the ATP Tour Finals.

    Rafa will have his hands full if they meet in the final.

  2. I think Rublev can get a set….but Rafa in 3; and Tpas in 2 ( but disappointed to see those remarks towards the umpire….uncalled for!)

  3. That was horrible. What is wrong with Rafa ? His fitness levels are really sub-par post last year’s RG..noticed it in Paris ,wtf, australia and in this match..n those DFS n ue galore..

    Is rafa done or too early to say that ?

    • Too soon to say, dear. Give him another year. (I personally wrote him off in 2015 and have since sworn off writing Rafa off. He’ll tell us when he’s done.)

    • Rafa is not done but he will have less frequent peak performances as he ages. It’s biologically impossible to keep performing like Rafa has over the past 2 decades.

      He will most likely peak for RG and find enough juice but he wont be winning the majority of the clay season like he has done in previous years.

      You really start to hit a wall when you get to mid-30s at professional sport level. That’s how demanding this sport is.

      Most people don’t notice the downward spiral until their 40s but in professional sport it becomes apparent a lot sooner.

      Rafa will probably need to start fine tuning his scheduling similar to what Fed did when he reached his age.

  4. I agree. I do understand that it’s only normal to wonder at this point. The pandemic is not helping either. Many of the players are not in good form right now. Going months without playing in stops and starts. No fans in the stands.

    I think Rafa will let us know when it’s time for him to go.

  5. At the beginning of the second set, I thought Rafa would lose it in straight sets when his first service game was broken. I thought the score would be worse than in 2019 when he played his worst match on clay, to lose to Foggy.

    At least Rafa showed a glimpse of his fighting spirit to fight back and won the second set. Rublev was consistently playing well, despite losing the second set. He’s the better player in the match and deserved to win it, winning 11 more points than Rafa.

    Before the match, I saw Rublev and his coach chatting away, it seemed to me then that they’re prepared for this match. They were indeed well prepared, attacking Rafa’s backhand the whole match and it paid off.

    Rafa was not helping himself when he served poorly, poor serve stats with seven DFs. His BH was leaking errors when under constant attack. Rafa was definitely not looking sharp, a bit surprising when he was playing well vs DelBonis and Dimitrov.

    Going forward, I think we shouldn’t be expecting Rafa or Djoko to dominate the way they did in the past; both of them did struggle through matches more often nowadays (Djoko at AO wasn’t having a smooth ride either). They’ll lose more matches compared to their past glorious days, but they’re still a force to be reckoned with especially at the slams.

  6. Not only fine tuning his schedule but also fine tuning his game. I know it’s on clay, but Rafa is still playing from way behind the baseline and doing lots of running.

    I know his serve was the problem; when he couldn’t serve well, he couldn’t have the chance to move forward to control the court. I feel he should fine tune his game by concentrating on serving well; maybe he should serve more down the T to win easy points quickly; and then rally when necessary.

    Right now, he prefers to rally and only when in trouble, he then tried to serve down the T. In the past when he’s younger and more confident, he could be clutch when needing his serve to bail him out. Nowadays, as he gets older, he’s not that clutch anymore; so perhaps he should win points quickly with his serve when he’s not under any threat and so less pressured; and then relied on his bread and butter shots, esp his FH, when he’s in deep trouble.

    I believe that way, he could shorten points and putting less pressure on his body; he should concentrate on serving down the T more often I feel, and also body serves to catch his opponent unprepared.

  7. You guys are acting like this is 2015. Why are you even asking questions such as: is he done?

    He just won RG without dropping a set last year, serving Novak a bagel

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