There is already guaranteed to be a somewhat surprising Monte-Carlo finalist when you consider the top-half quarterfinal lineup. It’s Hubert Hurkacz vs. Grigor Dimitrov and Taylor Fritz vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina on Friday.
Grigor Dimitrov vs. (11) Hubert Hurkacz
Hurkacz probably didn’t want to leave the friendly confines of Florida, where he trains and also plays his best tennis. The 14th-ranked Pole won the Miami Open in 2021 and this year he captured the doubles title with John Isner. European clay is not as favorable of a setting for Hurkacz, but so far he is having no problems at the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters. The No. 11 seed is through to the quarterfinals and he has done it thanks to a trio of impressive clay-court victories over Hugo Dellien, Pedro Martinez, and Albert Ramos-Vinolas.
Speaking of good wins on this surface, Dimitrov upset Casper Ruud 6-3, 7-5 during third-round action on Thursday. The 29th-ranked Bulgarian preceded that result by getting past Nikoloz Basilashvili (via retirement) and Dusan Lajovic (4-6, 6-3, 6-2). Although Dimitrov is probably content to play this particular matchup on clay, Hurkacz is in superior all-court form and his defeats of three clay-court opponents are encouraging. The 25-year-old should be able to win enough free points with big hitting to book a spot in the semis.
Pick: Hurkacz in 3
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs. (10) Taylor Fritz
When the draw came out, the quarterfinal matchup in this section of the bracket was expected to be Novak Djokovic vs. Carlos Alcaraz. Instead, it’s Fritz vs. Davidovich Fokina. Djokovic lost his first match to Davidovich Fokina and Alcaraz fell right away at the hands of Sebastian Korda, who then got bounced by Fritz in the third round. Davidovich Fokina has also taken out Marcos Giron and David Goffin both in routine fashion, while Fritz preceded a straight-set victory over Korda with three-set wins at the expense of Lucas Catarina and Marin Cilic.
The result is a third head-to-head meeting on Friday, with the two previous encounters–both on clay–having been split. Fritz prevailed 3-6, 6-4, 6-4 in 2018 Madrid qualifying before Davidovich Fokina got the job done one year later in Estoril (7-6(3), 6-4 in the quarterfinals). This should be a spectacular matchup on clay with both players in especially strong form at the moment, whereas on any other surface a big edge would obviously go to Fritz. Considering Davidovich’s comfortability on the red stuff and the way he followed up the biggest win of his career with a dominant performance against Goffin, the 22-year-old may be able to keep this run going.
Pick: Davidovich Fokina in 3
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I think you’ve got these 2 right.
Dimitrov has been in great form for a while now also. Inconsistent but a high level when he applies himself.
Happy Dimi won!!! He needs to do something about his return game though! Hopes he reaches the final