Monte-Carlo QF previews and picks: Nadal vs. Ferrer, Dimitrov vs. Monfils

April 16, 2015 Ricky Match previews 0

Monfils 2A blockbuster all-Spanish quarterfinal between Rafael Nadal and Gael Monfils will be contested on Friday in Monte-Carlo. Grigor Dimitrov and Gael Monfils are also in action.

(3) Rafael Nadal vs. (5) David Ferrer

In a matchup worthy of at least a semifinal, Nadal and Ferrer will be facing each other for the 29th time in their careers when they clash again in the quarters of the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters. Nadal is dominating the head-to-head series between the two Spaniards 22-6, including 18-2 on clay. The former world No. 1 once went on a streak of 17 consecutive clay-court wins against his compatriot before Ferrer finally prevailed 7-6(1), 6-4 last year at the same stage of this same event. Their most recent encounter came last spring at Roland Garros, where Nadal scored a 4-6, 6-4, 6-0, 6-1 quarterfinal victory on his way to another title.
 
Not unlike the situation in 2014, Nadal is has looked vulnerable going into the clay-court swing. At the same time, he appears to be restoring order on the slow stuff after disappointing results in Indian Wells and Miami. The third seed hammered Lucas Pouille 6-2, 6-1 then survived an in-form John Isner 7-6(6), 4-6, 6-3 on Thursday. Ferrer has defeated Victor Estrella Burgos (6-2, 2-0, retired) and Gilles Simon (6-2, 6-7(3), 6-1). The 33-year-old is an incredible 24-3 for his 2015 campaign with titles in Doha, Rio de Janeiro, and Acapulco. Ferrer is not going to go away quietly, but this is not the same Nadal that was on display on hard courts. His win over Isner–although possibly not as tough as this quarterfinal will be–should not be underestimated.Pick: Nadal in 3[polldaddy poll=8805809]

(9) Grigor Dimitrov vs. (14) Gael Monfils

A quarterfinal rematch of last year’s title showdown between fellow Swiss Roger Federer and Stan Wawrinka seemed to be in the cards. That was until Monfils and Dimitrov got in the way during third-round action on Thursday. Monfils upset Federer 6-4, 7-6(5) and Dimitrov ended Wawrinka’s title defense with a 6-1, 6-2 blowout. Thus the Frenchman and Bulgarian will square off for the fourth time in their careers.

Monfils leads the head-to-head series 2-1 and is 6-0 in completed sets against Dimitrov–all of those six coming at the U.S. Open. The world No. 18 prevailed 7-6(4), 6-3, 6-4 in 2011 and 7-5, 7-6(6), 7-5 last summer. Their other encounter came on the clay courts of Bucharest in 2014, when Dimitrov advanced via an opening-set retirement from Monfils. Clearly armed with a clean bill of health at the moment, Monfils preceded his win over Federer by taking out Andrey Kuznetsov and Alexandr Dolgopolov. Dimitrov, who has also gotten the best of Fernando Verdasco and Fabio Fognini, did not have to do much against a slumping Wawrinka. With a surface edge and basically home-court advantage, a confident Monfils should be able to get the job done.

Pick: Monfils in 3

[polldaddy poll=8805806]

119 Comments on Monte-Carlo QF previews and picks: Nadal vs. Ferrer, Dimitrov vs. Monfils

  3. I do not think that Ferrer is going to give this to Rafa. He’s going to have to earn it. I do not want history to repeat itself with Ferrer getting the win again in the quarterfinals against Rafa.

    I will say that I voted for Rafa in three sets, same as Isner. However, I will be very happy if Rafa proves me wrong and does it in two sets. Ferrer is playing well now, but Rafa seems to be getting it together.

    I really want to see Rafa string together a few wins against quality opponents. It will do him a world of good.

    Reply

  11. Poor game from Rafa broken when serving for it.

    More disturbing than when Isner broke him in the 2nd set the other day as Isner just played well.

    Rafa will also struggle against Nole especially if he chooses to stay so far back on serve.

    Other than that, Rafa is looking pretty strong but still has much work to do before RG.

    Reply

  13. A bit tight. Started well and became too passive on the points Ferrer won.

    Converted set point when Ferru missed a pass he should have made.

    Needs to stay aggressive which is continuing to improve match by match.

    Nole will be too much of an ask unless Rafa can improve consistency and maintain aggressive play at a higher level.

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  15. Rafa takes the set after initially being broken serving for it the first time. I’ll take it,

    As for what will happen with Novak, well this match isn’t over yet. One match at a time.

    Up until that break, I thought that Rafa was playing very well. This is the best he’s played to date. I have no problem with him bumping up against Novak because it was bound to happen at some point. It’s not the end of the world if he loses to Novak in the semis. That won’t mean anything for RG. It hasn’t in the past.

    I do agree that there is a lot more work to be done before RG. Rafa will get his chance in the next tournaments. Right now he needs a decent result, needs to gain some points and string together some wins against quality opponents.

    Reply

  16. I just noticed Rafa’s serving stats that were posted. Points won on first serve is not good enough. Points won on second serve is very good. No aces so far.

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  19. LOL! When I wrote my comment I didn’t see your comment!

    So we were both impressed! I don’t care if Rafa hits short in rallies as long as he can pull the trigger to win when it counts. He had a dtl backhand ROS for a winner in yesterday’s match with Isner. Little by little, that shot is coming back.

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  22. Rafa is really cruising now. He needs a win against a top 10 player. This is all part of getting back to where he needs to be.

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  24. Two poor service games he’s been broken now. He was just at 25 seconds when the violation was called. Doing everything they can to keep Rafa down this year.

    #Preserve17

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    • Slightly yes, mostly due to Rafa becoming more passive. Needs to shut it down. Big hold here for Rafa. Can’t let Ferru come back after being up the double break.

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  36. I just am at a loss for words. I don’t know how Rafa can be up two breaks and then give it back. I do not understand this.

    This is when I start to get sick. It’s just too difficult to watch this.

    Reply

  43. Honestly, is this goes to three sets then I will stop watching. There is only so much of this that I can take.

    You can’t give up two breaks in a set.

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  46. Rafa won only 50% of first serve points? For real? That is one shocking stat.

    I don’t understand how Rafa let that second set get away from him. I am still in shock.

    So it’s going to be a longer slugfest. Unbelievable.

    Reply

  68. so it is 5-2 to rafa. He has won this now (I THINK SO) and the last game was one of the best today. he dictated play so much.

    It should have been a 6-2 6-2/3 victory but rafa has just not been sharp enough on big points and he got passive midway through the second set. Ferrer then raised his level and stepped up the court to dictate play against a nervy rafa.

    The third set has been much in terms of aggression. He hit the ball more aggressively right from the first point.

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  76. Important win for Rafa. It will give him confidence to build on the way he refused to fold after losing the second set the way he did and getting his first top 10 win in over nine months.

    Tomorrow’s match means a lot more to Nole than it does Rafa.

    #Underdog

    Reply

    • I completely agree…the semi is already successful appearance for Rafa who was losing to nobody just weeks away…it’s time for Nole to be hunted by his own demons called “RG slipping away yet again”…having seen Rafa’ s movement and his determination must raise questions in Nole’s head…Rafa huge underdog tomorrow…all he needs is to go out there and enjoy…

      Reply

  81. hawkeye,

    Why do you say that tomorrow’s match means a lot more to Novak than Rafa? I don’t get that. You don’t think it means a lot to Rafa?

    This was one time when I wish that my prediction wasn’t right. I would have loved to see Rafa close it out in the second set, but that doesn’t seem to be the way of it these days. I am okay with Rafa meeting up with Novak. It’s clay, Rafa has had two really good wins against tough opponents. Now we will see how much more work has to be done. But I am happy to see Rafa hanging in there and fighting back in that third set.

    It goes without saying that Rafa cannot afford to give up double breaks in a set to Novak!

    Reply

    • Because Nole is expected to win given their respective YTDs.

      If Nole loses, then it raises huge doubts. If Rafa loses, doesn’t mean much for RG. Rafa is 2-4 vs Nole in lead up ATP events to RG since 2011 but 3-0 where it counts at RG.

      As Rafa said this week, he is not the favourite for nothing right now.

      All pressure is on Nole.

      Reply

      • hawkeye,

        Thanks for the response. That sounds reasonable to me. Also, I absolutely agree what losing to Novak in MC or any other lead up ATP event, does not mean anything regarding RG. That’s the mistake that the so-called experts made two years ago when Rafa lost to Novak at MC. People started calling him the favorite to beat Rafa at RG. We all know how that turned out. As you said, there is a losing h2h versus Novak in these warmup events leading up to RG. The big number is that Rafa is undefeated at RG. Novak has not been able to get it done.

        I think Rafa might enjoy not being the favorite now. It takes the pressure off him and he can just work on getting into his best form.

        Reply

  82. That’ s the way…good game from Rafa..having Ferry on the other side of the net wasn’t going to be easy…Rafa is fighting his own demons and he is doing it right…can’ expect 100% yet but boy some of Rafa’ shots were simply amazing…I think our Rafa is coming back…
    Great win after all…
    Vamos Rafa!

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  83. Rafa Said:
    “But I gonna fix it. I don’t know if in one week, in six months, or in one year, but I gonna do it.”

    When he said this recently, it was all I needed to hear.

    Reply

  86. I have to tell myself that this is a process. When I feel like tearing my hair out watching Rafa give up a double break lead in the second set against Ferrer, I have to remember that this is an ongoing journey. Rafa seems to get the second set blues. But as long as he is able to keep fighting and come back strong in the third set, then it’s all good.

    I think this is a win-win situation for Rafa. If he manages to beat Novak, then that will be the icing on the cake. If Novak prevails, then Rafa will know what still has to be done and can be happy with bettering his result at MC this year and gaining points. He can move on knowing that he played some of his best tennis in this tournament.

    I am okay with Rafa meeting up with Novak. It’s time for Rafa to face him.

    Reply

  88. A Rafa win tomorrow will seal his comeback; a win for Nole wouldn’t mean too much because it’s expected considering Rafa is not at his best atm but a loss for Nole would be wounding for him.

    Reply

  89. The way Rafa lost the 2nd set was disconcerting, but the way he won the 3rd set was very, very satisfying. That signaled mental strength.

    Reply

  93. I don’t expect Rafa to win tomorrow..however after 2 grueling 3 setters..hope he recovers physically and gives Novak a good fight to regain his confidence

    Reply

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