Monte-Carlo Masters preview and predictions

When the clay-court swing moves to Europe, it won’t leave until after the French Open. Following less prestigious events in Houston and Marrakech, Monte-Carlo marks the true beginning of one of the most entertaining eight-week stretches in every tennis season.

And this Masters 1000 tournament should not disappoint. Although Rafael Nadal played—and dominated—two Davis Cup rubbers earlier in April, this week is his first ATP appearance since retiring from his Australian Open semifinal against Marin Cilic due to a hip injury. Eyes will also be keenly focused on Novak Djokovic, whose attempted 2018 comeback from various physical problems has so far been an unmitigated disaster. With Djokovic struggling, Cilic not at his best on clay, and Dominic Thiem rusty, can anyone challenge Nadal?

Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters

Where: Monte-Carlo, Monaco
Surface: Clay
Points: 1000
Prize money: 4,872,105 Euros

Top seed: Rafael Nadal
Defending champion: Rafael Nadal

Draw analysis: For the sake of balance, the fewer times that Nadal and Thiem are in the same quarter of clay-court draws the better. But that is exactly the case for the first of three Masters 1000 events, as the aforementioned duo could go head-to-head in the Monte-Carlo quarterfinals. The world No. 1, who opens with either Aljaz Bedene or a qualifier, should have zero trouble reaching the last eight. Thiem, on the other hand, awaits Andrey Rublev or Robin Haase and he is possibly on a collision course for the third round with either Djokovic or Borna Coric.

A tough top half of the bracket also includes first-round bye recipients Grigor Dimitrov and David Goffin. With Goffin having played only one match since Rotterdam because of an eye injury, the Belgian’s section is wide open. Roberto Bautista Agut, Benoit Paire, Feliciano Lopez, and Denis Shapovalov are among those hoping to take advantage. Dimitrov has a friendly draw, likely running into Filip Krajinovic in round two and perhaps Albert Ramos-Vinolas in the last 16.

Alexander Zverev finished runner-up at the most recent Masters 1000 tournament in Miami and a similar result is not out of the question in Monte-Carlo, where he is arguably the favorite to face Nadal in the final. The 20-year-old German, who got clobbered by Nadal during Davis Cup action but also crushed David Ferrer, finds himself in a section of the draw along with Lucas Pouille, Fabio Fognini, Diego Schwartzman, and Richard Gasquet.

Big serving will be on display throughout the bottom quarter, which is home to Cilic, Tomas Berdych, and Milos Raonic. A more traditional clay-courter, however, may be the one to go through to the semis. Pablo Carreno Busta, a Roland Garros quarterfinalist last season, could meet current Marrakech finalist Kyle Edmund in the second round and either Berdych or Kei Nishikori thereafter.

Berdych vs. Nishikori is a first-round showdown to watch, as is Paire vs. Lopez, Edmund vs. Alexandr Dolgopolov, Thanasi Kokkinakis vs. Karen Khachanov, and Fernando Verdasco vs. Pablo Cuevas.

First-round upset alert: (WC) Gilles Simon over (16) Adrian Mannarino. Simon has not been great since capturing the Pune title in week one of the season, but he may not have to be great in this one. Mannarino, who is just 9-8 in 2018, is at his best on either grass or a low-bouncing hard court and clay is undoubtedly his least favorite surface. Meanwhile, Simon got a couple a clay-court matches under his belt this past week in Marrakech. Mannarino leads the head-to-head series 2-0, but both matches went three sets (one ended in retirement) and they have not faced each other since 2011.

Hot: Diego Schwartzman, Daniil Medvedev, Borna Coric, Tennys Sandgren, Denis Shapovalov

Cold: Dominic Thiem, David Goffin, Novak Djokovic, Albert Ramos-Vinolas, Kei Nishikori, Gilles Simon, Mischa Zverev, Alexandr Dolgopolov

Quarterfinal predictions: Rafael Nadal over Dominic Thiem, Grigor Dimitrov over Roberto Bautista Agut, Diego Schwartzman over Fabio Fognini, and Pablo Carreno Busta over Milos Raonic

Semifinals: Nadal over Dimitrov and Carreno Busta over Schwartzman

Final: Nadal over Carreno Busta

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Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!