Rafael Nadal may be sidelined for the beginning of the clay-court swing, but there is still plenty of intrigue for the Monte-Carlo Masters. Much of that has to do with Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz, who happen to be in the same quarter of the draw. Djokovic is playing in just his second tournament of the season, while Alcaraz is hoping to build on his incredible start to the 2022 campaign.
Although this is the only Masters 1000 event that is not required for the top players in the world, it boasts a strong field even beyond Djokovic and Alcaraz. Rounding out the top eight seeds are Alexander Zverev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Casper Ruud, Andrey Rublev, Felix Auger-Aliassime, and Cameron Norrie.
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters
Where: Monte-Carlo, Monaco
Surface: Clay
Points: 1000
Prize money: 5,415,410 Euros
Top seed: Novak Djokovic
Defending champion: Stefanos Tsitsipas
Draw analysis: With Djokovic and Alcaraz in the top half—and even top quarter—that is obviously the place nobody else wants to be. Tennis fans are already salivating over that potential quarterfinal contest, but neither player has the easiest path to make it that far. Djokovic could meet Roberto Bautista Agut in round three, while Alcaraz awaits either Sebastian Korda or Botic Van de Zandschulp in his opener before possibly facing Taylor Fritz. Alcaraz and Ruud are on a collision course for the semis in what would be a rematch of the Miami final (won by the Spaniard in straight sets). The Norwegian is in a favorable section of the Monte-Carlo bracket, as neither Norrie nor Hubert Hurkacz is at his best on clay.
At the bottom of the draw, the second-seeded Tsitsipas is the defending champion. It’s true that he has struggled since last season’s runner-up performance at the French Open, but two of his results undoubtedly would have been better if not for Alcaraz (U.S. Open last year, Miami two weeks ago). In a Monte-Carlo section with no seeded players in great form (the others are Auger-Aliassime, Diego Schwartzman, and Lorenzo Sonego), Tsitsipas is well set up to make another run in the principality. Meanwhile, with Zverev and Rublev not entirely on top of their games the door could be open for Jannik Sinner and Pablo Carreno Busta.
First-round matches to watch include Korda vs. Van de Zandschulp, Hurkacz vs. Gael Monfils, Sinner vs. Borna Coric, Marin Cilic vs. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Lorenzo Musetti vs. Benoit Paire, and Alexander Bublik vs. Stan Wawrinka.
First-round upset alert: Gael Monfils over (11) Hubert Hurkacz. You never know what you are going to get from Monfils, but on this surface—Hurkacz’s worst—the Frenchman will have a good chance if he plays anywhere close to his best tennis.
Second-round upset alert: Lorenzo Musetti over (6) Felix Auger-Aliassime. Auger-Aliassime did not win a single match in Indian Wells and Miami before losing his opener this past week in Marrakech. Musetti is rounding back into form at the moment and now finds himself on his favorite surface.
Hot: Casper Ruud, Cameron Norrie, Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner, Taylor Fritz, Pedro Martinez, Botic Van de Zandschulp
Cold: Novak Djokovic, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Lorenzo Sonego, Stan Wawrinka, Borna Coric, Ilya Ivashka, Benoit Paire, Karen Khachanov, Ugo Humbert
Quarterfinal predictions: Novak Djokovic over Carlos Alcaraz, Casper Ruud over Cameron Norrie, Stefanos Tsitsipas over Lorenzo Musetti, and Jannik Sinner over Pablo Carreno Busta
Semifinals: Djokovic over Ruud and Tsitsipas over Sinner
Final: Djokovic over Tsitsipas
who ya got?
Hard to see Novak winning with so much time off.
RBA probably beating Novak before he even gets to Alcaraz
It’s a great opportunity for Tsitipas to gain some valuable momentum and form over his rivals. He will want to make amends for last year’s disappointing loss which should be a strong motivating factor throughout the clay court swing. Expect a bold showing from him in each of the clay court masters events
Djokovic should be dialled with no Nadal in the field and after a disappointing loss in Dubai. It’s a great opportunity for him to gain some valuable points and kick ahead in the rankings before the US summer where he’ll most likely not even be allowed play.
And no, I don’t think RBA would beat Djokovic on clay – whoever this fake Anonymous is. Most likely it’s Ricky trying to deviate attention away from his 2 incorrect predictions.
But don’t blame Ricky, he’s only a product of his environment.
I’m interested to see how Alcaraz goes on clay and I’m actually a bit surprised to see him in the field given he went deep at both IW and Miami.
It would’ve sent a strong signal to the rest of the field if he missed MC-an indication he’s already at that top level where he’s scheduling to win the majors.
MC is a big tournament, he’s not going to miss it, wants to go for the big titles, good to see, he’s young, he’s had a week off too, should be fine.
I disagree with that and I’ve been right, time and time again when it comes to fatigue and scheduling. He should’ve started his clay season in Madrid and I wouldve taken notice of that big time, that this guy is already serious about winning majors and is light years ahead of his time.
He has to walk before he can run, needs to take down the clay titles 1st, you are probably wrong in this case, he isn’t as likely to do well at the majors just yet.
Regardless, he should’ve missed MC.
I did consider that was their assessment. Still doesn’t change my mind. The policy should always be that if you play IW and Miami and go deep, you sacrifice MC. You cant have your cake and eat it too.
I don’t make the rules of how the human body works best.
Then you’ll be aware of how many times young Nadal played all three clay Masters, plus Barcelona, and won most of them, plus Roland Garros? Granted, young Rafa either skipped Hamburg due to playing 5 set finals in MC and Rome or (in 2007), lost the Hamburg final to Roger. But from 2005 to Hamburg 2007 he lost zero matches on clay.
In these degenerate days there are no 5 set Masters finals and young Alcaraz seems pretty healthy so I don’t see why he shouldn’t be able to play a full Euro clay season.
I anticipated you making the Nadal connection. Only difference is Nadal is a a lot bigger physically. When I look at Alcaraz im not seeing someone that can expend/exert themselves the same way Nadal did.
So, no, I dont think he should be using Nadal as benchmark for scheduling.
Gilles Simon would probably be a more appropriate reference and Simon wouldnt be playing MC if he just went deep at IW and Miami and won a tournament just prior to those events.
or maybe not Simon. Djokovic would be a better reference and I doubt Djokovic would be playing MC in similar circumstances.
or maybe Djokovic would; we saw how wrong he got his scheduling when he played he won AO, RG, Wimbledon and then thought he could still win the Olympics and USO.
Nice call on the upsets, I totally agree.
Hot: Coboli, Munar, Rune, Dellien, Goffin, Alcaraz, Ruud, Hurkacz, Norrie, Harris, Rublev, Garin, Sinner
Cold: Cressy, Cilic, Karatsev, Lajovic, Humbert, Griekspoor, Paire, Sonego, Carreno-Busta, Delbonis
QF: Alcaraz over Djokovic, Ruud over Monfils, Tsitsipas over Musetti, Zverev over Rublev
SF: Alcaraz over Ruud, Tsitsipas over Zverev
F: Alcaraz over Tsitsipas
Alacaraz isnt beating Ruud in this kind of form on clay.
PS Auger-Aliassime is also cold.
Damn right, he knows the clay season is ahead of him, same with Fritz. Sharp bettors will be laying these 2 all season whenever there’s a sniff of an upset.
I expect the following players to be particularly strong this clay court season:
Djokovic
Medvedev
Zverev
Tsitspas
Ruud
Alcaraz
Sinner
Carreno
Monfils
Cilic
Garin
Karatsev
Cilic on clay, not really. PCB and Karatsev are in poor form.
You can probably add to the mix Kecmanovic, Delbonis, Ramos, Davidovich Fokina.
Delbonis can’t win a match to save his life right now, Ramos and Davidovich have not been impressive for a while now.
And Fognini. Was going to add him but thought the list was getting a bit long. Expect him to raise his level.
Rublev will try but hits it too flat to do anything significant on this surface. Medvedev can actually do quite well on clay when he sets his mind to it and I expect him to given the circumstances.
He’ll know he has an edge come the US hard court season and will be motivated to accumulate as many points as he can here.
That’s funny since Rublev has 2 clay titles and has been to the final here, last year in fact.
Well, you probably shouldn’t expect a repeat. As time goes on I think he will realize where his strengths and weaknesses are and so will the rest of the tour.
I’m not expecting a repeat, but people should not expect Rublev to be poor on clay either, he’s already more patient in his game, so he should improve on clay even more.
Cerundolo could do well after having a breakthrough event and it wont take Thiem long to get back into the swing of things, if he’s motivated.
Let’s dig out these posts after Rome and we’ll see who was right and wrong.
I hope N. Djokovic wins Monte-Carlo đź’Ş
Alcaraz has the Big Mo…..and the whole week should be full of great matches….can’t wait!
Really looking forward to seeing Stanimal hit top gear again. His RG win was one of the greatest performances of all time.
I agree with you Zurich!! I am looking forward to seeing Stan play and would also love to see a match up between Novak and Alcaraz!!!
Why would Rublev be poor on clay he reached the final last year