Monte-Carlo final preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Monfils

Rafael Nadal will be aiming for a ninth Monte-Carlo title when he takes the court on Sunday. Standing in Nadal’s way is Gael Monfils, who has not dropped a set or even been pushed to a tiebreaker in the entire tournament.

Rafael Nadal and Gael Monfils will be squaring off for the 14th time in their careers when they collide in the final of the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters on Sunday afternoon.

Nadal is dominating the head-to-head series 11-2, including 4-0 on clay. Each of Monfils’ two victories has come in Doha, where he prevailed in 2009 and 2012. Outside of Doha, Nadal is 10-0 against Monfils and 22-1 in total sets. They most recently faced each other on the grass courts of Stuttgart in 2015, when the Spaniard came out on top of a semifinal showdown 6-3, 6-4. Their only previous Monte-Carlo encounter marked their first-ever meeting, which Nadal won 6-3, 6-2.

Looking for his ninth title at this event and first since 2012, Nadal is in the midst of what has been his best week of 2016. The world No. 5 took care of Aljaz Bedene, Dominic Thiem, and Stan Wawrinka in straight sets before overcoming Andy Murray 2-6, 6-4, 6-2 on Saturday.

“It’s a very important week for me, being in a final here again in Monte-Carlo (and) winning against very tough opponents,” Nadal commented. “That’s a lot of great confidence; good news for me.”

Monfils has enjoyed plenty of good news during his trek through the draw. Once in a quarter featuring both Novak Djokovic and David Ferrer, the Frenchman saw the path clear when Ferrer withdrew and Djokovic lost his opener to Jiri Vesely. Monfils has not dropped a set and has not even played a tiebreaker in victories over Gilles Muller, Paolo Lorenzi, Vesely, Marcel Granollers, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Monfils is 20-5 for the year and will climb to No. 2 in the race to London if he lifts the Monte-Carlo trophy.
Monfils
“The basis of my game is to be aggressive from the baseline and not step back,” Monfils said of his tactics against Nadal. “It’s going to be a physical combat. I saw a few rallies between Nadal and Murray. These were huge rallies on clay with deep shots, and I will need to play well if I want to win. To beat him I need to take many risks, and I need to have some luck.”

Even though this looks like a smarter, more controlled, and more motivated Monfils, the odds are still obviously stacked against him in this one–and not just because of his past futility against Nadal. The world No. 16 is a horrendous 5-18 lifetime in ATP finals and all five of his titles have come at the 250-point level. Monfils has the right idea when he talks about being aggressive against Nadal, but he has always found executing such a plan to be extremely difficult.

Pick: Nadal in 2

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285 Comments on Monte-Carlo final preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Monfils

  1. Gael in 2 – his return game stats are incredible this season ! This week he has won 57% of return games and he has always been the quickest out of the blocks ! A break in the beginning and consistent tennis which he has been able to produce regularly this season will help him edge a tight two set affair ! Ok , he could be pushed to three but don’t see him losing in France tbh ! The stakes are just too high for him as they are for Rafa !

  2. I have no idea whether people were being sarcastic after my comment or not hahaha.
    Just to clear things up, Monte-Carlo is still a French region and the crowd will still be a home crowd for Monfils.

  3. You can only move forward , you can’t go back to a state you where. His game might be better or worse but it will never be the same because he himself is not the same. As I mentioned in my blog that the factors have changed over time , some where relevant then but are not now and vice Versa. He will still have that fear factor though , no matter what but you will always not want to play him on clay !

  4. Now that I’ve seen Rafa’s match vs Andy my thinking is that Rafa of Set 3 would beat LaMonf easily…not sure that Rafa is going to appear in the beginning of the match…I really wish for strong and confident Rafa to show up from the start to the end. I wish for tentative Rafa to go away…

    Rafa of Set 3 resembles old Rafa… He totally outplayed Andy! Hope for my boy to just show up thinking like a Champion and playing like a Champion he is!

    All the best in the finals, Rafa!

    Vamos Champ!

  5. I guess Rafa in 2
    Rafa may start today’s match more relaxed and sharper after yesterday’s comeback win; Monfils may overdo his aggressive play spraying unforced errors.

  6. I wouldn’t put it past leMonf to steal a set. So playing safe:

    Rafa in 3

    but naturally hoping it will be in straights 🙂

  7. A double disappointment for Mummy Murray. First Andy falls short in the SF and then she has to be content with Jamie being the runner up in doubles.

  8. UN-REAL counterpunching from Rafa and then turning defense into offense. THIS is truly the vintage Rafa, ladies and gentlemen.

  9. Hands it back wrapped in anxiety.

    He looks so nervous out there. Amazing he’s been playing so well until that last game.

    Too bad.

  10. I just started watching in time to see Rafa get broken back after getting the break.

    I hope that nerves aren’t going to get to Rafa.

  11. I woke up and started watching at 4-3 and immediately thought I’m bad luck charm for Gael cuz he played an horrendous game to get broken. Then he breaks right back with incredible tennis. C’mon Gael!! ALLEZ

  12. Insane defending from Gael but Rafa should have just played the angles and spread the court for the last 2-3 shots as Gael was about to faint

  13. tremendous defensive forehand CC on the run to seal the game! that was such an explosive shot…

    7-5 Rafa…go for it

  14. God Monfils with so many errors in his service games. Rafa may have been making some errors but on the big points Monfils was almost always either double faulting or missing easy short balls. Horrible finish to the set from Monfils. Gael pissing me off right now. Can’t believe he went and doubled on set point against. So dumb of him.

  15. I will take it. Whatever it takes to get the win. Hopefully Monfils will be tired now and Rafa can close this out in 2 sets.

  16. I feel like Monfils wins this set with a break here but he just lost the game. Now Rafa still can win this set. Gael just seemed kinda tight those last few points. C’mon Monfils get this to a third set.

  17. If this goes 3 sets I don’t know that I can watch it.

    I wondered if Rafa played his best against Andy and might not have it for the final. Also, nerves seem to be kicking in big time with Rafa.

  18. 9 service breaks in 19 games.

    What a joke.

    I’m switching to scoreboard watching now because this is just horrible to watch and I’ve got stuff to do. Just not worth watching this nasty tennis.

    I’ll tune back if rafa gets close to winning.

  19. Lol. Monfils giving him all these short balls off returns obviously Rafa is gonna make him pay. Monfils couldn’t be worse at making the most of his opportunities today. Too many break leads thrown away. He could’ve been up in this match right now but instead Rafa a game from victory. Of course he’s lost leads in this match as well. C’mon Gael hold here please.

  20. One thing Gael has impressed me with is his backhand and most notably his backhand off the Rafa forehand. Lol I jinxed it he just shanked one way out.

  21. I didnt know winning a Masters can be so difficult for Rafa! What is he doing? His serve is so poor, my goodness! Broken three times in a set?

  22. So he just could not do it in 2… Proved me wrong , Rafa.

    Now, whatever, just do it in 3 WITHOUT GIVING US ALL THIS STRESS

  23. I wish you could mute the commies. Reusable I know.

    Scoreboard watching now. Should have stuck to my guns earlier.

    Spring gardening is much more rewarding than watching this shite.

  24. Well I said I thought leMonf was capable of taking a set. But wasn’t banking on Rafa presented it to him so meekly., Gael has got into his head big time.

  25. I really dont like the way Rafa plays today. Why cant he serve more often like this first game third set? Why must he make life so difficult for himself? Monfils is not going away, so Rafa has to serve well to hold serve and capitalize on Monfils errors!

  26. Rafa will win, he does not look tired indeed. His roaring even is even getting louder, while Monfils quiet down in the second set. Monfils shoulder is up and down breathing, taking deep breath whenever he has the chance. Rafa will grind Monfils to his end.

  27. I have the feeling it’s not about Gael! It’s all about Rafa! He has to have belief! You can do it, Rafa!

    Vamos!!!

  28. They’ve swapped serves in almost every game. Enough Rafa! Allyou have todo to hold on to your serve, the rest will follow.

    Vamos Rafa!

  29. Alright this is just disappointing. Monfils back to a bunch of misses and looking all tentative with less aggression and more defense. He has to hold here or he is done. Rafa is hitting better though but it’s like Monfils has just let that get to him. Come on Gael fight!!

  30. Rafa’s physic is marvelous.
    He runs like a rabbit with second to none defense capability
    It will be very interesting to see Rafa playing Nole at the next Masters final on clay.

  31. Novak will not have his chance to win RG this year.
    Rafa is really back to sweep clay court once again this year.
    No doubt.

    • Lol!!! I am not so sure about that, Rafa still has a lot of kins in his armour AND in his head!!! But it would be great if he surprises me!!!

  32. So glad I stayed to watch the third set and saw Rafa demolish Monfils. But it was a crummy final when all is said and done. I think Monf should be penalised for malfunctioning gear – and only be allowed to retie his shoe laces once during each game. He takes liberties to give himself time to recover between points.

  33. Congrats Rafa

    Congrats Rafans

    We have been waiting for this since 18 months and as always Montecarlo comes to Rafas defence. 2010 it was MC, 2012 it was MC where Rafa stopped losing streak against Novak. 2013 though he lost he knew he had to improve just a bit to catch Novaks level.

    2016 what next ? Hope this is the springboard for Rafa.

    Contrary to some opinions here I don’t want Rafa to face Novak till RG . Let him face in final there. Novak smells blood when he sees Rafa and will do anything to puncture his confidence.

    Well done Rafa.

    Pls excuse him the nerves of 2nd. It was bound to happen when you have not won a big title in a very long time.

    • It is kind of inevitable they will face each other at least once before RG…

      Let’s be prepared. I am not afraid of Novak on clay esp if Rafa continues this and wins Barcelona. Will favor Novak in BO3 until rafa proves otherwise….but, this is a great moment! Rafa has made the first real stride…REAL stride.

      He will crush the field in Barcelona…

      His serve needs improvement but it is so much easier to work on improvements once you have the calmness in your heads. This title will calm him..

      • I’m not afraid of Nole.

        I’m afraid of Rafa.

        He won’t get away with those remaining inconsistencies against Nole. Way way too many service breaks and UEs when he was tight. And failing to consolidate three times including serving for the first set was painful to witness.

        But he’s finally starting to look so much better more often this week than in the past.

      • Rafa can’t face Novak in the final at RG unless he is not in his half of the draw.

        Does anyone know if Rafa has a shot to get to #4 before RG?

      • As much as I am so excited about Rafa’s win here today I really cant look too far ahead. I think for me it has got to be one title at a time as Rafa has broken my heart several times over these past 18 mths. I will only cheer when he actually wins. I have no expectations going forward. But Vamos, Rafa!!!

  34. Canadian coverage not showing trophy presentation. And live streams stopped. Amazing. I might have to renew my TennisTV subscription just to see this as it probably won’t go on youtube either.

    WAY TO GO RAFA!!!!

    (wasn’t pretty)

    • In the states they only showed a brief clip of Rafa holding the trophy and playing the Spanish national anthem, then they went back to fed cup.

      I am officially furious at the tennis channel for not staying with the trophy ceremony.

  35. Mike w APRIL 16, 2016 AT 12:29 PM
    Picking Rafa again on this site looooooool..always picking with ur heart and not ur head on this site when it comes to nadal……face it he’s not good anymore, just accept it
    ***********************************************
    You were saying? 🙂

  36. What a bad way to end it from Gael. Talk about a weak finish. Errors after errors this set couple with Rafa stepping his game up a bit = Nadal wins. Match point Rafa. After such an intense two sets Monfils just couldn’t do anything in the final set. Rafa wins. Bad third set from Gael but Rafa upped his level and intensity so he deserved to win of course. Congrats to Rafa. Edging closer to stealing Stan’s spot in the top four. Stanimal will have to do well at the upcoming events to keep his lead over Rafa heading into the FO. If not he could get someone like Novak in the QF. Stan probably needs the four seed more than Rafa but Rafa will probably get it before RG. Reason Stan needs it more is cuz Rafa is gonna make run no matter what seed he is. Then again he could run into Nole in QF too so basically they’ll both be looking for four seed but Nadal will probably get it. Gosh I’m still sad Monfils couldn’t clinch a spot in top 10. Still rose two spots to 14 but it could’ve been 6. Btw I like Rafa I just wanted Monfils to crack top 10 and get a first masters title. Anyways fantastic week for Rafa and Monfils. Gael continuing his fantastic season up to 20-6 and Rafa gaining some clay court momentum up to 17-6 on the season.

    • Gael ran out of steam though and as usual the king of clay had more energy and totally deserved it. I was just a bid sad that the last set was so anticlimactic. Nice celebration from Rafa. This was a big week for him. He should be able to win Barcelona now.

  37. Pau Ferragut Retweeted
    Rafael Plaza ‏@Rafael_Plaza 27m27 minutes ago Roquebrune-Cap-Martin, France View translation
    Monfils está muerto, usando la raqueta como bastón. Nadal también. ¿La diferencia? El mallorquín es el rey del sufrimiento. Hoy y siempre.
    Monfils is dead, using the racket as a cane. Nadal also. The difference? The Mallorcan is the King of the suffering. Today and always.

  38. I like Monfils so I’m glad he came 2nd although I would have preferred Rafa to take the scalps of Stan, Andy and Fed in the process.

  39. Yes!! Vamos!! So emotional for Rafa!

    He’s so nervy throughout the whole match, resulting in all those DFs and loss of serves. I hope this win will finally make him believe in his own ability and his own game. He has to improve his serve for sure and cut down on his FH errors.

  40. It’s difficult for rafa to make up 1100 points plus to overtake stan current points deficit plus defending deficit. Unless he wins Barcelona and 1 more masters and final of other masters

    • Its not 1100 points, its 865 points. Its possible if Rafa wins Barcelona and Madrid and adds points at Rome( he reached QF at Rome last year).

      I feel Rafa after overcoming nerves and doubts to win MC, will have confidence in his own game now, so he will most probably beat the others to win his titles on clay. Djoko no doubt is his main obstacle but Djoko hasnt proven that he’s as formidable on clay this year as he was last year.

      I do feel as long as Rafa can work on his serve and BHDTL shot, he will have his chances vs Djoko.

      • Stan has 90 from Madrid and 360 from Rome. Rafa has 600 from Madrid and 180 from Rome.

        Stan now has 6460 points and Rafa 5595. Rafa can still add points at Barcelona if he does better than SF there.

  41. I’m so proud of what Rafa has achieved, amazing perseverance, it’s easy to be a champion when everything is going your way but to be able to overcome and turn around the bad times has a lot of value!

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