Monte-Carlo final preview and prediction: Fognini vs. Lajovic

An improbable Monte-Carlo final pits Fabio Fognini against Dusan Lajovic on Sunday afternoon. Fognini stunned Rafael Nadal in the semifinals, while Lajovic did not drop a single set en route to his first career ATP final.

The Monte-Carlo Masters has been under the firm control of Rafael Nadal for more than a decade, but on Saturday the Spaniard was upended in straight sets by Fabio Fognini. There will be a brand new Monte-Carlo champion this year: Fognini or world No. 48 Dusan Lajovic.

Lajovic has had a fantastic run this week. The Serb hasn’t dropped a set, though he played three seeded players en route to the final–including 2018 French Open finalist Dominic Thiem, Belgian David Goffin, and Daniil Medvedev (who dispatched Novak Djokovic in the quarterfinals). Except for Nadal’s lackluster performance in the semifinals, Lajovic has been the surprise of the tournament thus far.

Fognini came into Monte-Carlo off a positively miserable start to the year. The Italian had a 4-8 start to the season–and now he has beaten Nadal at one of his most successful events. He had actually beaten Nadal on clay twice before, including back in 2015 in Barcelona, so he had already proven to himself that he could do it.

Lajovic and Fognini have never played each other. The Italian is ranked higher at No. 18 in the world, but Lajovic has actually been more impressive this week. Although Fognini will have had the boost of having beaten Nadal, it should be Lajovic in for his first-ever ATP title.

Cheryl pick: Lajovic in 2

Ricky pick: Lajovic in 3

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33 Comments on Monte-Carlo final preview and prediction: Fognini vs. Lajovic

  1. dusaan in 2!!! I think fog will have a major drop in his level after that huge win and dusaan has nothing to lose he’s more consistent ill gladly take dusaan +3 handicap.

  2. Fognini will take this match seriously given its a Masters 1000 title and on home soi (sort of) and its against a player he knows he can beat.

    Fognini will play out of his skin. Fognini in 2.

    Imagine if Lajovic wins, he’ll think he’s part of the big 3 for the rest of his career. We could see some of his best tennis going forward.

    • I agree. This is not a first round or second round match. This is a final match. Whoever plays in the final will play to their full potentials. Fognini in 2. He is too good for Lajovic.

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  4. Fognini is the cleanest ball striker out there, he is always standing when hitting the ball, moves amazingly and can hit incredible angles. Yesterday Medvedev played very badly. Fognini will destroy Dusans one hand backhand. Mark my words.

    • Agree about Fognini’s balance when hitting the ball. It’s very unusual and quite incredible how he can generate so much pace with so little movement. His timing is amazing.

      • I totally agree, he’s upright when hitting , generates so much power and angle even when late on the ball , other players aren’t so obviously natural .

  5. I go for Dusan! Fog is inconsistent and one nervous and rude butthead! It was easy to beat subpar Rafa! Even Coric would have had the same shot at this Rafa!

    It’s laughable how much people read into this victory of Fog. He is nothing but fog indeed and Serb will beat him.

  6. This match is entirely on Fognini’s racquet. If he plays close to his best he will win easily. I think he will. Fabio in 2.

  7. I think Foggy, if he plays well, will win in three sets. Lajovic plays well and he’s willing to move forward to the net and plays with varieties; so he’ll give Foggy problems, making Foggy run for his shots.

    Foggy will have to use his power to overcome Lajovic; any drop in level Lajovic may win.

  8. Must say I was surprised how serious and focused Foggy was in thiis final! When he behaves like this and plays well he totally deserves the trophy! Dusan OTOH was terrified in this match and played lousy match! I don’t think he will get another chance like this…

  9. Oh god, thank-you! Old Fognini made it. I thought he’d blow it. This is incredible for the Italians and Fognini’s 😀

    Especially happy for Flavia, Schiavone, his dad, sister – and everyone biting their lips in his box. Bravo Fabio 😀

    Sorry for Dusan – and wishing him many more chances like this and a deep run in Barcelona. He’s playing so well. Great hug at the net.

  10. By my calculation, I think Foggy will move to world no.12 with this Masters win, not bad again for the 30 something year old players.

    • He’s almost 32 and you are right – has bumped up to #12. By far the best win of his career. Would never have guessed it – he’s not had a great year.

  11. Hope Fabio pulls out of Barca. He playing with a lot of pain but he says he doesn’t want to do anything about it until after RG. Crazy plan, imo.

    • Not that crazy, for a tennis player. Clay is by far his best surface and he’s playing well, so he’ll want to amass as many points as possible before having to rehab.

  12. Well done FF , one of the games great under achievers, bit of a headcase, dont like some of the things hes done, but do appreciate he has a lot of talent, first masters 1000 congratulations ….

  13. Congrats, Fabio! He kept his head and played steady when he needed to. Didn’t get down once again after a first set break. Not a high quality match, and Lajovic really didn’t play that well, but he must have been understandably nervous. Well done to Fognini; would love to see him more in the late end of tournaments.

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