Monte-Carlo final preview and prediction: Tsitsipas vs. Ruud

Stefanos Tsitsipas
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Stefanos Tsitsipas and Casper Ruud will be squaring off for the fourth time in their careers on the main tour when they battle for the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters title on Sunday afternoon.

When the tournament began (and especially after Carlos Alcaraz withdrew), a championship match between No. 1 Novak Djokovic and No. 2 Jannik Sinner seemed like an obvious destination. That became increasingly probable heading into semifinal Saturday, when Djokovic ran into Ruud and Sinner faced Tsitsipas. Instead, each semifinal produced a significant upset.

Ruud’s 6-4, 1-6, 6-4 success against Djokovic marked his first win over a world No. 1 and also his first win over Djokovic (previously 0-5). The 10th-ranked Norwegian’s maiden trip to the Monte-Carlo final has also featured defeats of Alejandro Tabilo, Hubert Hurkacz, and Ugo Humbert. On the heels of a somewhat disappointing 2023 campaign, a resurgent Ruud is now 24-6 this season.


Even though Tsitsipas is already a two-time champion of this event (2021, 2022), his third appearance in the final is a big surprise because it has come basically from out of nowhere. The Greek is struggling down at 12th in the rankings and really didn’t have anything more than a semifinal result in Los Cabos to show for his 2024 efforts prior to this week. Before beating Sinner, Tsitsipas ousted Laslo Djere, Tomas Martin Etcheverry, Alexander Zverev, and Karen Khachanov.

The 25-year-old’s aforementioned Los Cabos run came to an end at the hands of none other than Ruud, who prevailed 6-4, 7-6(4). That gave Ruud a 2-1 lead in the head-to-head series after they split a pair of meetings in 2021 (Ruud won 7-6(4), 6-4 in Madrid before Tsitsipas got the job done 6-1, 6-4 in Toronto).

This should be a good one between two guys who have impressed throughout the week and have always been great on clay. Based on his 1-0 clay-court record against Tsitsipas and his proven stretch of positive results this entire year, a slight edge goes to Ruud.

Pick: Ruud in 3

[yop_poll id=”1031″]

15 Comments on Monte-Carlo final preview and prediction: Tsitsipas vs. Ruud

  1. Sinner going from hard to clay, and his game being better suited to hard, made it improbable when combined with his immediate circumstances.

    Same with Djokovic, 37, on his weakest surface and tough prior match.

    Ruud and Tsitsipas both have lot to play fair in terms of their rankings.

    Tsitsipas’s form is not really a surprise when you think about it.

  2. Plus Sinner needs a rest. Their camp probably decided it was better to get a few matches in at MC rather then go Madrid, Rome, RG. I don’t think he was too worried about losing here.

  3. You picked Rune but not Tsitsipas to trouble Sinner but Tsitsipas was the more authentic clay courter but that’s where you probably got it slightly wrong and not giving enough weight to fatigue and transitioning from hard to clay – arguably his weakest surface.

  4. You have underestimated Tsitsipas capabilities on clay not even including him in voting list for tournament winner. Tsitsipas in 3.

  5. Tsitsipas to win his third Monte Carlo Masters title! He loves playing here and just seems to be bring out another level. Should be a very exciting match to watch!
    Tsitsipas in 3!

  6. Hindsight is 20/20, but after that first set I instantly remember losing a bet with Rudd to win at least a set in his last final (I think it was with Alcaraz), and he got smoked.

    Now that makes two finals where he got smoked 2-0.

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