Monte-Carlo final preview and prediction: Rublev vs. Rune

The Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters final matchup is probably not one that anyone expected at the beginning of the week, but if the most recent meeting between Andrey Rublev and Holger Rune is any indication then we should be in for a fun one.

They squared off in an absolutely wild encounter in round four of this year’s Australian Open, where Rublev prevailed 6-3, 3-6, 6-3, 4-6, 7-6(11-9). The Russian trailed 5-2 in the fifth set, saved two match points at 5-6, fell behind 5-0 in the ensuing tiebreaker, and eventually won the ‘breaker with a return winner off the net cord at 10-9.

Their only other encounter came last fall on the indoor hard courts of Paris, where Rune got the job done 6-4, 7-5. That was one of five top-10 victories for the 19-year-old Dane on his way to the title–including an upset of Novak Djokovic in the championship match.

Rune is now one win away from a second Masters 1000 triumph following wins this week over Dominic Thiem, Daniil Medvedev, and Jannik Sinner. The world No. 9 also got a third-round walkover from Matteo Berrettini.

Whereas Rune is already a Masters 1000 champion, Rublev is still trying to get over that hump–somewhat similar to his Waterloo that is the quarterfinals of Grand Slams (0-7 in slam QFs). The 25-year-old is 0-2 lifetime in Masters 1000 finals, with routine straight-set losses in 2021 to Stefanos Tsitsipas (Monte-Carlo) and Alexander Zverev (Cincinnati). Add doubles into the equation and Rublev is 0-5 all time in Masters 1000 title matches.

That’s not to say the fifth seed doesn’t have a chance. He is playing well once again in Monte-Carlo with defeats of Jaume Munar, Karen Khachanov, Jan-Lennard Struff, and Taylor Fritz. Since dropping his opening set of the tournament to Munar, Rublev has lost only one other set (to Fritz during a 5-7, 6-1, 6-3 semifinal victory).

Rublev’s forehand will likely keep him competitive in this match, but Rune has the better all-court game–especially on clay–and his taste of Masters 1000 success at the Paris Indoors will only give him an extra confidence boost.

Pick: Rune in 3

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