Monte-Carlo final preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Ramos-Vinolas

April 22, 2017 Ricky Match previews 199

Rafael Nadal and Albert Ramos-Vinolas will be going head-to-head for the third time in their careers when they battle for the title at the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters on Sunday afternoon. Both of their previous encounters have gone Nadal’s way; 6-3, 6-0 on the clay courts of Barcelona in 2013 and 7-6(4), 6-2 at the same event one season later.

It is safe to that Ramos-Vinolas is not getting to face his heavily-favored countryman in the most ideal of settings. After all, Barcelona and Monte-Carlo are two of Nadal’s favorite tournaments. He is a a nine-time champion at the former and will become a 10-time winner of the latter if he triumphs on Sunday.

Of course, clay is also Ramos-Vinolas’ best surface by far. Playing the best tennis of his life right now, the world No. 24 is 19-11 this year and 16 of his victories have come on the red stuff. This is his second final of 2017 (lost to Pablo Cuevas in Sao Paulo) to go along with three other semifinal showings and three other quarterfinal performances–all on clay. Ramos-Vinolas punched his ticket to this title match by taking out Renzo Olivo, Carlos Berlocq, Andy Murray, Marin Cilic, and Lucas Pouille, winning his last three contests in three sets.

“I improved my tennis a little–my backhand a little bit,” Ramos-Vinolas answered when asked about his hot streak. “I improved my physical condition. I improved a little bit my mental condition. I also have more confidence. I think there are a lot of things that are going better. It helps me get better results than before.”

“He’s playing better than ever,” Nadal said of his upcoming opponent. “He’s winning huge matches during the whole week. He’s playing with big confidence, with great spirit and fight, overcoming tough situations in every match, and playing a high level of tennis all the time.”

Nadal has had no such trouble this week. The seventh-ranked Spaniard needed three sets to scrape past Kyle Edmund in his opener before picking up the pace to make routine work of Alexander Zverev, Diego Schwartzman, and David Goffin. Nadal is now 62-4 lifetime in Monte-Carlo and 23-5 overall this season.

If those numbers are not daunting enough, Ramos-Vinolas is going up against event greater odds because Nadal is 41-1 lifetime at the ATP level against fellow left-handers on red clay. Nor will it help that the underdog has a trio of three-setters in his legs and is playing in the first Masters 1000 final of his career.

Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 7 games or fewer

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199 Comments on Monte-Carlo final preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Ramos-Vinolas

  4. Rafa in two losing seven games or fewer. However Ramos-Vinolas has been surprising me all week. Rafa is still a pretty heavy favorite given the circumstances of the match.

    Reply

  5. ARV has made huge strides this season. Just hope this final is not anti-climatic and he can make a match of it particularly after yesterday’s SF debacle which was frankly disappointing after Goffin fell apart.

    Rafa to enter the record books with his 10th MC crown but I have a hunch it could take three sets if ARV plays his part.

    Reply

    • Yep, I agree with you Sanju, that it will not be straight forward. ARV is playing very well so Rafa has to play well and be focused, not losing concentration which he often does these days. I hope Rafa plays aggressive tennis and shortens points, as ARV is good at grinding and slugging it out.

      Reply

  7. It’s amazing how many people keep on cheering for Rafa on here. I really hope ARV comes through, and I think he can. My prediction is Ramos in 3

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    • Yes absolutely Rafa is one who’d never take a match easy and treats every opponent with respect and fights it out like he’d do with any one of the biggies
      I say go Rafa take him out and more importantly play a good match…

      Reply

  9. I agree with Mary, Rafa will take his opponent seriously especially now that he lost three finals this year! Hope Rafa plays well and shows the King of Clay mentality! I would not mind even if it turned out to be a lopsided match in Rafa’s favor!!It would only mean the highly confident Rafa is back!
    Vamos Rafa! Make us proud with your 10th MC title!

    Reply

  10. I think ARV will become the 2nd best Spaniard this season, before PCB and RBA.
    Nadal will win MC, but ARV will do very good the rest of 2017 and will end in top 20. Dont forget he played also a final on hardcourt 6 moths ago in Chengdu.

    Reply

    • Great value at 10:1 just on an upset alone.

      Was hoping for a sunny day but it is overcast.

      Also helps with a value bet IMO. Slower heavier conditions.

      Reply

  13. I kid you not, after loud cheers , there was some booing as Rafa stepped on the court!!! Those group of people must be nuts.

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  14. Nerves? Rafa won’t be nervous here, he has played on much bigger stages, against much tougher opponents, and with much more at stake.

    Reply

    • He was very nervous losing to Ferrer in the 2014 QF and nerves definitely played a role in his loss to Nole in 2015.

      AVR is no Nole obviously. But Rafa shouldn’t have lost to ferret in two.

      Reply

  22. Awesome finish to the game! massive groundies and a goood drop volley to finish off perhaps the longest rally of the match.

    Reply

  24. Great serving, great returning ,aggressive groundies. 9 winners to 6 UE

    ARV is nervous and clueless. It would have been a bagel if Rafa had converted one of those 3 BPs.

    This one could be a bagel or a 6-1 again

    Reply

  25. Rafa is perspiring like crazy! Why is it so? Maybe he’s very nervous, given the occasion? He took ave 33 sec between points in that last service game! Can’t believe he took that long, didn’t seem like it.

    Well, at least first set in the bag now, so hopefully he can be calmer now and maintains his high level.

    Reply

  29. Rafa seems to be losing the long rallies these days, maybe he’s less calm nowadays? He should keep the points short against ARV, ARV seems able to get most balls back in longer rallies.

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  32. Have to agree w/Rick…the MC Finals is just too big a stage for ARV to play his best tennis….yes, he got this far, bur time to say “au revoir”!

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  42. And the champion is: Rafa Nadal!

    Rafa won his 70th career title!!!
    ??????????
    ??????????
    ??????????
    ??????????
    ??????????
    ??????????
    ??????????
    Yayyy!!!

    Rafa became:
    ¤ the first man to win the same tournament 10 times in the Open Era,
    ¤ the first man to win 50 clay court titles in the Open Era.

    Hip hip hooray!!! ? ?

    Vaaaaaaaaaamoooooooooos Rafa!

    Reply

  44. So much drama in the end! Vamos Rafa!!

    Finally! A title this season to break the titleless spell, what more doing it by winning his 10th title at MC, a record. Also he has the most clay titles now in the open era, at 50 titles, one more than Vilas’ 49.

    Well done Rafa! So happy for you!

    Reply

  45. There u go Nny!…There’s your PERFECT recovery present from Rafa!!As for other rafa fans Hawks,Lucky,sanju,Nats,Mary,VR[sorry,if i miss any name..can’t think atm!]…BIG BIG CONGRATS U GUYS!!

    Off to Barca we go!!woohoo!!

    Reply

    • MA,

      Yes! This was wonderful to see! Rafa ends the title drought and sets a few more records along the way!

      This is going to give Rafa a big boost of confidence moving forward! A record that will most likely never be broken!
      ????

      Reply

      • Yeah Nny!And he also has a chance to add another 10th in Barca and RG!..hehe..BUT,i hope he will stay injury free for at least 2 months..after that he can do anything he want!!even though i hope he will stay healthy for a whole year!C’MON RAFA!!!WOOOHOOO!!

        Reply

        • MA,

          Yes, Rafa has to stay healthy! This title is going to help him. He needed a title so much! The bonus is that he broke records along the way! This should be the piece of the puzzle that Rafa needed. I hope to see him playing more freely and with more confidence.

          Bring on Barcelona!

          Reply

  47. Can’t say how pleased I am that Rafa has set another record. The first player since 1968 to win one title 10 times.

    Reply

  49. This is the year of Fedal. Buckle your seatbelts folks. This has been and is gonna continue to be awesome. Is it bold of me to say Rafa and Roger will occupy the top two spots in the world at year’s end? Because I don’t really think it is at this point

    Reply

  50. Thank god that is over and dusted. It’s been one hell of a rollercoaster week. Don’t think my nerves could stand anymore.

    So happy for Rafa

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  51. Oh forgot to say RAFA YOURE A BEAST!! TENTH MC TITLE FOR THE KING OF CLAY #vamos Nice to see Rafa make history again and get a title again. Obviously if Fed was here I woulda rooted for him but without Roger here, I want either Rafa or Stan to win these events. I want that throwback Fedal year mixed in w a little bit of Stanimal and Kyrgios magic as well.

    Reply

  53. Unbelievable this guy!! 10 titles at a masters 1000 event is INSANEEEEEEEE!

    He’ll be going for an 11th next year (God Willing) and perhaps he can then equal Martina’s record of 11 Eastbourne titles.

    He is extremely likely to win his 10th at Barcelona as well and it makes me so excited to think that will give him so much confidence. He finished this week playing great tennis!

    The ATP Race as of now:

    1.Federer- 4045
    2.Nadal- 3235
    3.Wawrinka- 1590
    4.Goffin-1415
    5.Dimitrov-1375
    .
    .
    .

    11 Murray-930
    .
    .
    .
    20 Djokovic-655

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  54. Unless Djokovic and Murray pick a good chunk of points in the clay season, they will fnd it very tough to stay with Federer and Nadal, the way things are going.

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  56. Rafa!! Congrats everyone! MC is Rafa’s playground… I’m sure it won’t happen because of the Monaco royalty, but I feel like it would just be wrong to not rename the center court at Monte Carlo, “Court Nadal”, some day! 🙂

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  58. So happy to see Rafa smiles and bites the trophy ?
    10th it is! Here is hope and wish for a few more 10th this year! ?

    Vamooosss!

    Congrats my fellow Rafans! ?❤️

    Reply

    • Yeah, so happy to see the Rafa smile! They shown all of Rafa’s previous nine trophy lifting/biting moments over the big screen there; we could see Rafa from being a teenager in 2005/2006, to a grown up young man and then into his late 20s, with that same mesmerizing smile!

      How amazing it is that most of us here have been watching him all these years and time just flies past all of us, a good twelve years have gone by! And Rafa is still winning, there!!

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  59. Congrats all Rafa fans! Finally after a long wait we are able to see our man lift a trophy! If he wins RG, I do not care if he wins anything else or not thereafter.
    Rafa is playing aggressive but against the top guys he is likely to revert to his usual style.

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    • not at all. Let him consolidate his win in barcelona and he will be ready to play aggressive against the top players too. Btw, would you mind explaining how all of a sudden Rafa got power on his forehand ? did he gain speed in a couple of days? You were concluding that he has lost power on his forehand as he is slower now. It is mostly to do with his confidence. He can still play pretty aggressively with his forehand.

      Reply

      • I never said Rafa lost power on his forehand or that he suddenly gained speed in a couple of days. If you were logical, you would have understood my point. You show yourself in a poor light by making ridiculous taunting statements without bothering to understand what I said. I do not draw conclusions from single matches but from trends. If that is what you do, time for you to start taking a more scientific approach.

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        • It is no ridiculous taunting statement. I have read many times in your posts where you dismiss there is nothing mental and everything is linked to loss of speed! I DID NOT say YOU have said Rafa has gained speed ! You are the one not reading carefully.

          So what exactly is your ‘logic’ ?

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          • You said that if Rafa wins, would I say he has gained speed. You seemed to think I had concluded Rafa had lost speed because he lost a match and I will say he has gained speed if he won and so I should explain how he gained speed in a few days!!!That is a ridiculous statement as I do not draw conclusions from single matches but by observing over a period. So don’t keep making silly statements starting with “what exactly”. You are probably not reading anything properly, a fault you had admitted to once when you erroneously claimed that I had claimed I was a male and you had raised similar silly taunting questions.

          • Also vr I don’t know why you are trolling and attacking me creating bad blood when Rafa fans should be rejoicing. Stick to tennis analysis instead of making a fool of yourself by attacking without understanding or more likely without reading.

          • firstly, I don’t have any intentions of creating ‘bad blood’ and I don’t do that. Stop being so sensitive and playing the victim of ‘attacks’.

            okay, if you are really into ‘logical’ debating, we shall see who creates a fool out of themselves if we ever get to debate in future.

            And no, I am not keen on ‘attacking’ or creating ‘bad blood’ so I am off this.

  60. I am actually pretty psyched now for the inevitable post-Roland Garros race to #1 between Rafa and Fed! I know that #1 is not the first thing on his goal list, but I think that his choice of whether or not to play RG could prove decisive in if he can end the year #1. If Fed skips RG completely and Rafa wins RG, I think he would need to win Wimbledon and have Rafa NOT win US Open to realistically have a shot at year end #1. But if Fed plays RG and even just makes the semis, that could be enough to make the difference if it came down to the wire between he and Rafa.

    This is me going under the assumption that Rafa is going to win RG. The only person who can realistically take Rafa out at RG (Novak) is slumping hard, so it’s just really hard for me to see Rafa not claiming that 10th RG… I think he’s going to end this season with 10 MC, Barcelona, AND RG titles, personally. The one tournament that I, personally, believe Rafa MUST win in order to have a shot at #1 is Roland Garros… If he somehow doesn’t win that one, it’s hard for me to see him getting to #1 when all of Fed’s traditionally best tournaments are post-Roland Garros, and he already has a major and 2 Masters. So the way I see it, it’s Roland Garros or bust for Rafa. And I believe he is going to win it! 🙂

    Reply

    • Good post Kevin! I agree.Rafa has to have a great clay season to have a chance if Fed continues his form into the second half of the season and Nole and Andy continue slumping. If Andy gets back into form, Fed has competition at Wimbly. If Nole also gets back into form , Fed has competition on hard courts from both Andy and Nole. If Rafa has a great clay season, then his chances of grabbing # 1 are higher than Fed’s if Nole and Andy get back into form.

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      • You’re right, Mary, that Fedal finishing 1 and 2 could depend on how Murray and Nole play in the latter part of the year… If I was forced to bet money right now on who ends this season #1, I personally would use the following criteria:

        -If Rafa wins Roland Garros, and Fed completely skips it, I would bet on Rafa to end #1 because Fed would then probably have to win Wimbledon and US Open, or one of the two plus like 3 Masters titles and going deep everywhere else to end up with more points than Rafa.

        -If Rafa wins RG, and Fed plays it and goes deep (final or semis), then I would probably back Fed to end #1 simply because he traditionally does very well in the second half of the year, whereas Rafa only has a couple times.

        -If Nole and/or Murray happen to find their form again, that would, imo, make things equally potentially more difficult for Fed and Rafa in terms of year-end #1. So if Nole/Murray truly managed to find their form again, it would become too much of a toss-up for me at that point.

        -This is all so damn speculative and subjective because we never know what will ultimately happen with ANYONE through the whole season. I doubt it would be the case- but neither Rafa nor Fed could end up winning any of the remaining three majors, however unlikely that is… Rafa could win RG, and then his confidence could spark a run of winning all the big hardcourt tournaments while Fed doesn’t win a single other title for the rest of the year… Fed could go on a tear, winning something like Wimby, Cinci, US Open, Basel, and WTF, while Rafa wins nothing after RG… Nole could magically find his form and run the field again… Kyrgios could come storming back and blow everyone away… Even though these things are likely to not happen, the point is that we have seen things go the way we wouldn’t have thought they would before!

        The one thing we do know for sure- Fedal will have likely won all the biggest tournaments between the two of them by the time Wimbledon starts… Therefore, I certainly wouldn’t bet too much $ against the two of them finishing the year 1 and 2! 🙂

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    • I don’t think #1 is a priority for either Fed or Rafa. Doing well in the Race obviously is. It’s really all about the majors for them now. Of course Rafa wants to do well in the clay court season – it’s his Prime Time for banking those ranking points. I expect Andy would like to stay at #1 for awhile but not sure about Novak. I think he wants to enjoy his tennis and his life more now, not just focus everything on winning.

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  61. Lot of haters think Goffin can beat Rafa at Barcelona and prove he was cheated at Monte Carlo. But I have a feeling he maybe taken out before he reaches Rafa. Of course if he does meet Rafa, he will lose and the haters will say the poor chap is totally demoralized after the bad call at Monte Carlo and it may take him 10 years to get over it! Just imagine if that bad call hadn’t been made Goffin might have ended the year at #1 winning the rest of the tournaments this year!

    Reply

    • I don’t think people are going to make a big deal out if what happened in the semifinal match with Rafa and Goffin, it’s old news. Goffin has to learn to deal with bad calls when the unfortunately happen.

      I don’t think people are going to draw inferences or conclusions from what may happen in Barcelona.

      Rafa will go into Barcelona with renewed confidence. I expect him to play better as he moves forward in the clay season. There’s nothing to prove because Rafa won that match at MC fair and square. He earned the win by raising his level of play.

      I am looking forward to Barcelona!

      Keep it up, Rafa!

      Reply

      • nny, I was just being sarcastic about the importance of that bad call as made out by haters.
        However do not underestimate the irrationality of the anti Rafans. In another forum a hater claimed that Rafa had bribed the umpire and then the poster went on a rant about how Rafa is always cheating. Another poster claims Rafa is a cheater because he already knew the ball was long.

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        • Mary,

          Honestly, I am not surprised about those things that were said on another forum. I get that there are some people who have nothing better to do with their lives. I feel sorry for them.

          I guess how I should have phrased it is that I am moving on past that incident. The haters will always hate, no matter what. I have confidence that Rafa will handle Goffin if it happens at Barcelona.

          Thanks for the clarification. I get where you are coming from.
          ?

          Reply

    • He certainly should win it! Although there is the off chance that he could actually end up having a tougher road to the title than the one he ended up with in Monte Carlo… Even if that happened, the King should not be losing a clay 500.

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  63. I think I got it right when I said that Rafa having reservations in going all out to win Miami when the clay season was round the corner.

    Rafa did hit his FH (and BH)with depth, served relatively well, moved so well around the court and did go all out to win a clay title. I think he’s back or almost back to his former good to great level now; winning a title, esp a tenth MC title, should help in giving him confidence and self belief going forward.

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  64. Great expectations are everywhere!!! A great sign that Rafa has his iconic and unmatched mental strength back!!!

    RT
    Carole Bouchard‏ @carole_bouchard

    “It’s time to enjoy but not to celebrate”, Rafa about moving on. When is time then? “We’ll seee after Roland-Garros if there’s a reason to”.

    Reply

  65. RT
    Carole Bouchard‏ @carole_bouchard
    Rafa dit qu’il savait qu’à force de jouer des finales, il allait bien finir par en gagner une.

    Translated from French by Bing Wrong translation?
    Rafa said he knew from playing in the finals, he was fine eventually win one.

    Reply

  66. Rafa has a total of 1320 to defend for the rest of the year!!!!!!

    Barcelona – 500
    Madrid – 360
    USO – 180
    RG – 90
    Cincy – 90
    Beijing – 90
    Shanghai – 10

    Total – 1320

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    • It doesn’t matter whether he has 1000 or 10000, by the end of the year all those points would have expired. However, it might help him improve his rolling ranking which is currently 7th , I think.

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      • Hope this year is a repeat of 2013. If Rafa continues to play well, he can beat Fed on clay and outdoor hardcourt. Fed’s backhand looked great because Rafa’s forehand wasn’t working so well. It must be remembered that Fed’s backhand was considered great until Rafa came along in 2004.

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      • Yep, the Barcelona points have been taken off.I can’t predict the health factor but otherwise, Rafa is in a great position to shoot up the rankings. The time period till RG is so crucial for him.

        Federer’s backhand was just not made to look good, but it actually has improved quite a lot. Rafa, made it look more impressive than it actually is though. Team Nadal had decided not to attack Fed’s backhand too much in Miami and their patterns were working fine but execution was poor. By shaking up the patterns a bit and hitting the forehand better, Rafa can overcome Fed. On clay, I have total faith in Rafa and that is what matters most at the moment.

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        • Rafa is in a good position now. I didn’t realize that the 500 points from Barcelona were already taken off. He’s #5 in the rankings now. Only 820 points to defend. He’s got an opportunity now.

          The most important thing is for Rafa to keep winning! Another title in Barcelona will do very nicely. If Murray and Novak continue to struggle, then there is Madrd and Rome.

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        • Well Feds’s backhand might have improved but if Rafa had not had physical setbacks, he would still have been able to overpower that backhand. I think Rafa should have taken a break in 2015 for 6 months to heal himself completely instead of rushing back but I think he felt the pressure of time passing and felt he needed to win some more before 30.

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          • It is not entirely about overpowering the backhand. Nadal was a victim of falling prey to the old patterns. For Fed, he could easily anticipate most of Rafa’s shots (as they were hit to his backhand) and he was ready to attack. He has been generating more power and is more comfortable hitting DTH even on higher balls. Rafa was so much used to those patterns. It is not easy to change them all of a sudden but they started doing it in Miami.

            So, Rafa knows he won’t profit as much by simply pummelling fed’s backhand. He knows the backhand is obviously still the weaker side but he has to be a bit more careful with the patterns.

          • The same happened with DJokovic in 2011. Rafa was DOMINATING djokovic pre-2011 and even though Djoko had a DHBH, Rafa used to attack it quite a lot and he was having a lot of success, esp on clay. He used to attack Djoko’s forehand pre-2011 but only when he was really on the offensive. Djokovic used to land some short balls with his forehand before 2011 (esp in the earlier years). Rafa was playing really well in IW and Miami with the old patterns but Djokovic (with his improved fitness, movement, more aggressive backhand and forehand counterpunching got the better of Rafa. I am sure Rafa was like okay, he is great on hard courts but it’s tougher to do it on CLAY! But, Djoko had the advantage of KNOWING where Rafa would hit most of his shots and Rafa was so used to doing it. Surfaces kept changing and Rafa kept losing and it was at their year-end training they decided they would change the patterns significantly. Then we saw new patterns in AO 12 and then MC 12. People were like DJokovic’s level has dropped but they failed to see how Nadal turned the tables! I believe he can and will do the same against Fed.

          • And, Rafa should make Fed run to cover his FH, and so would expose Fed’s loss of speed in moving to cover his FH. Agut did that against Fed and won some points but couldn’t sustain that for long. Rafa should be able to do better than Agut.

      • How do you get 820? Rafa has 360 from Madrid, 180 from Rome and 90 from RG, so only 630 points to defend on clay; 900 if we include Cincy plus USO and 1000 if we include Asian swing points. So all in all Rafa has only 1000 points to defend for the rest of the season, and he’s certainly in very good position now to gain many points and goes up in the rankings.

        Reply

    • Rafa had 180 points from Rome last year, he lost to Djoko in the SF. So he has 1500 points to defend, less off 500 from Barcelona, so he has now 1000 from last year.

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  67. This MC I think team Nadal was showing great tactical skills out there with Rafa following the script with improved almost perfect execution. Rafa ensures depth and his shots are more powerful and more penetrating than in Miami. I loved when Rafa was mixing it up with drop shots and approaching the net with success. Great sign!

    Though I did not see the statistics I think Rafa’s loss in speed ( yeah I agree with Mary on that one) which sure makes much lesser of an issue on clay but becomes a huge liability on HC, somehow becomes apparent in long rallies in which Rafa more than often ends up losing the point when playing quality opponent. I believe Rafa is aware of it so he decides to make the points shorter and plays smart, tactical tennis by exploiting the weaknesses of his opponents and taking advantage of it! It works way better than just trying to outhit the opponent..,nowadays there are so many hard hitters who can run forever to keep the ball in and Rafa should not be caught in thier trap…

    Both his FHs and BHs have improved on clay and will only get better as his confidence grows!

    I expect Rafa to win Barcelona hopefully without long, grueling matches! I pray Rafa staying healthy and confident to win RG!

    Vamos!

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    • don’t think there is anyone here who thinks Rafa has lost speed. How on earth would he not lose some of his speed? The thing is, even with his current speed, he is more than capable of playing at a level good enough to beat anyone, esp on clay. His biggest issue has been lack of confidence. The only remedy for him is to build momentum by winning matches and titles. He is totally on the right path now. And, it is no secret that when you are extremely confident, your movement also gets a boost.

      I agree that it is more important than ever to keep the points short but it also true that Rafa gains confidence when he plays long rallies. He actually used the Schwartzman match to his advantage. He reduced the penetration on his shots, gave more net clearance and was just prepared to hit more and more. He thrives on hitting more and more balls. He should try to keep points shorter, esp on his serve but I am confident he will start winning more longer rallies too.

      Thiem played a practice set with him in MC and the youngster was like ‘his movement is incredible…’ so even the young Thiem is still in awe Rafa’s movement on clay. So, we need not worry too much and I am confident he is still moving well enough to DOMINATE on clay.

      Reply

        • @ vamosrafa,
          I see what your point is and I fully agree! Rafa’s more than capable of dealing with his opponents on clay where he can slide and with clay being so much friendlier to his fragile knees…I also agree that with Schwartzman Rafa hit more long rallies which I think came from Rafa being confident in beating him in the first place thus playing his well known game. I believe though against more dangerous opponents Rafa would not go for long rallies similar to what he did with Zverev. This is where I see Rafa and his team working on creating good strategy which gave results!

          I am encouraged with changes Rafa is able to make during the match, implementing plan B where needed..,I also noticed Rafa confused some of his opponents by combining short and long hitting where they would end up going backwards snd “falling on their back”..it was both brilliant and fan to watch ?

          Reply

          • true! Rafa knew he could handle Schwartzman so was happy to engage in long rallies. He is the type of players who LOVES to hit more and more balls on the court and that’s how he gains confidence in his shots when he sees them landing on the right spots (both in practice and matches). But, when he saw things were getting trickier against Schwatrzman, he got a bit more aggressive and that was enough to win 16 consecutive points. He was in cruise control.

            Keeping rallies short is a good thing against players like Zverev and Kyrgios but the relentless Rafa , who moves opponents from side to side by using angles, created from enormous spin, is what made him so daunting. He would bully opponents and DRAIN them on clay. It happened to Djokovic a lot before he got his superhuman fitness in 2011. So, I agree that he needs to keep a good mix. Shorten points but also play long rallies (being in command of them most of the time) to beat the heck out of opponents.

            Btw, I was happy with his ROS! It is an underrated part of his game on clay and people don’t even see how tough his returns are to handle when he is hitting them well.

          • Yep, me too! I was surprised how improved Rafa’s ROS is in this MC! I actually feared his ROS would be his major weakness based on what I saw in IW and Miami! But a different Rafa showed up on clay and it will only get better.

          • See Nats, I said it before, that on clay Rafa could slide into points so speed isn’t any issue. We saw Rafa’s hesitation at Miami, and a split second of hesitation and he ended up late for his shots. To me he wasn’t slow, but was unsure, as in not anticipating well the next shot and that made him looked slow.

      • vr,

        I agree with your analysis. Of course there is some loss of speed as a player gets older. That is inevitable and not exclusive to Rafa! But the key is winning. Winning and getting titles breeds confidence and belief and that pays big dividends in the crucial moments of future matches. Confidence can change a player’s game. Speed, overall movement, shot making, accuracy and depth all improve.

        There is an old saying about mind over matter. Never more applicable than with Rafa. I think when a player has that core belief and underlying confidence brought on by tangible success in the form of match wins and titles, then a player can be more aggressive, more willing to take chances, playing more freely. It all comes together seamlessly and that is what I hope happens with Rafa as he continues on with the clay season.

        Reply

    • Today has been my happiest day (relating to tennis) in more than 2 years! It is so nice to see Rafa playing well. He obviously has more confidence in his body now and let us hope his body does not let him down this year. Fed, Nole , Muzz all have had benefit of weak eras. It is Rafa’s time to rule. It would be great if he could shorten the rallies.
      I hope he brings in lots of variety to keep his rivals guessing. My Dad thinks Rafa may have several aces up his sleeve but will not reveal them till RG so that his rivals would not be forewarned.

      Reply

  68. The Barcelona points will come off tomorrow and Rafa will move to #5 with 4235 points. Kei will go down to #7 with 4010 points.

    Reply

  69. 10 At MC, hopefully 10 at Barcelona, and RG, then sweep the clay season with Rome and Madrid, i think if he does it might act as a springboard to winning another USO, i think SW 19 would be unrealistic to hope for ….

    Reply

    • In fact I would be happy if he skips the grass season but I have the feeling he won’t. He is still hopeful of doing well at Wimbly with a good draw.

      Reply

      • He has not had the opportunity to prepare for Wimbledon with an extra week of preparation and rest. He can use that additional week to adapt better and be prepared for the dangerous early round matches. I don’t think he should stay away from grass. His knee is holding up fine so he would be able to bend low for his shots. If his serve is good at that time, and assuming he’d have won RG, I wouldn’t rule out his chances.

        Reply

  70. He’s lost a bit of speed. Some due to natural aging but more due to anxiety which makes it harder to move and lack of trust in his body.

    The latter source of speed loss is revoverable and Rafa has recovered much of that over the last year.

    I agree with VR about the patterns vs Fed but also Rafa has not kept his shots consistently deep and high to the BH as well as he used to because his belief vs Fed isn’t as good.

    But he can get there and be the best again without any help from the field.

    Reply

    • yep, the losses against Fed are a combination of the two things you mentioned. 100 % correct.

      He has lost some speed due to age and yeah all those injuries would just not let you move freely. The more he wins, the more confidence he gets, the sooner he’ll be able to overcome confidence issues and showcase his 100% potential.

      Reply

  71. Looking over the race rankings, it will be interesting to see if Federer pays attention or not, and if he sees how close Rafa is after Barcelona. Will Fed decides to have a go at Madrid? If he were to throw in for a warm-up pre RG, taking RG seriously, it would be Madrid I think. Obviously Andy, Nole, and Kei should be going to Madrid with Rafa. That 4th seeding could be up for grabs right until the last minute. I don’t see Federer going to Rome but I’m very bad at predicting what Federer will do! lol

    Reply

    • Fed may play at Rome just before RG. I think Rome is better preparation for RG.

      I don’t think Fed is too worried about his seeding at RG; he’s more worried about his seeding at Wimbledon. He certainly wants to avoid both Djoko and Murray until at least the SF there at Wimbledon so he’s eager to get to at least the no.4 seed at Wimbledon.

      A lot depends on Stan and Rafa; if both do well on clay, Fed will have to work hard to get some points on clay, and then wins both Stuggart and Halle to get ahead in his seeding on grass.

      Reply

      • I agree with Lucky that he may do Rome because it’s the most similar to RG. But I also think that if he simply wants to get points before Roland Garros, he would be smarter to play Madrid because he’s much more likely to win there than at Rome. But I that he just cares way more about maximizing his chances at Wimbledon than he does about his ranking. But you have a good point, Lucky, that maximizing his chances at Wimbledon could also mean being ranked as high as possible going into it, so maybe he would consider playing Madrid or Rome? Although if he made semis or final of RG, that’s all points gained in the rankings because he isn’t defending anything there… Lucky, did Fed say that he might play Madrid or Rome? Or are you guessing that he will?

        Reply

        • I doubt Fed is going to reach SF or final at RG. Don’t be too optimistic about that; Fed can’t grind on clay at age 35; if he plays a warmup event or two, perhaps he can get to QF at RG.

          I don’t know about Fed’s plan, just guessing. Madrid may not be easy for him either, as its Rafa’s home turf. Both Murray and Djoko may want to do well there being another masters event and getting closer to the FO with Rome left as the last warm up. They have winner and finalist points to defend at Madrid, as well as Rome and RG, so they won’t take things easy at Madrid for a start.

          Reply

      • Goodness yes, Rome is better prep for RG. I was just thinking Fed has a better record in Madrid. I would not expect Fed to be a serious challenge for Rafa on clay in RG. But if Federer wants to go for #4 seeding, he should go where he’ll have the best shot of picking up points = Madrid over Rome and winning a couple rounds at RG. There isn’t much time for picking up points on grass…to Halle, as usual, he goes. No matter, as I said, I’m bad at guessing Federer right. He may be looking at the Race Ranking with the will make it another year to challenge WTF.

        Reply

        • Fed will make the WTF; winning a slam puts him in good position to make it there.

          Fed has 5125 points now, with 90 at Rome last year to drop off at start of Rome this year. Assuming he does nothing this clay season, he will have 5035 points before start of grass. He’s playing Stuttgart and Halle this year just like last year. He had 270 from these two events last year. So assuming he wins both this year, he will add 480 points (500+250-270) so he should have 5515 points after Halle.

          Wimbledon add in points from grass events of the past two seasons (100% from last year and 75% of Wimbledon points from the year before last if I’m not wrong). Fed has 270+720 = 990 from last year, on grass, and then 900 (i.e. 75% of 1200 runner up points in 2015 at Wimbledon) from 2015, so his total seeding points for Wimbledon this year will be 5515+990+900 =7405 points.

          If both Stan and Rafa do well on clay this season and gains many points, that may make their seeding at Wimbledon more favorable regardless of how poorly they did on grass in the past two years. So, Fed will be monitoring them closely and may then decide to play a warmup event and then the FO. Fed is too far off from Murray and Djoko, with both having some good ranking points on grass from the past two years; so Fed certainly hopes he’s ahead of Stan or Rafa or both when the grass season arrives.

          Stan can pick up many points on clay – he has only 100 points from Madrid/Rome last year so plenty of potential to pick up points. If Murray and Djoko can’t improve much on clay, Stan may make his move and may even reach the FO final if Rafa is seeded no.4 at RG and won’t meet him until the final.

          As for Rafa, we know what he has to do to get to no.4 seeding at RG, winning at RG will put him in good position for a top four seeding at Wimbledon.

          Reply

          • Seeding is less important than the luck of the draw. Nadal has been unlucky with the Wimbledon draw for some years, coming across Kamikaze Rosol/Kyrgios/Brown all playing do or die tennis and knee problems against Darcis who risked the slippery grass to beat Rafa then ending up with a shoulder injury.

            If Rafa gets a break and not draw a couple of the above he stands a good chance at Wimbledon.

    • I am wondering if Rafa has a real shot at the #4 ranking before RG. That’s why I am curious to see if Fed will play in at least one clay tournament before RG. I think we all know that Fed’s priority is Wimby, but he will want to make sure that he is in the top four at that time. If he does decide to play one tournament, will it be Madrid or Rome?

      I just hope that Rafa keeps winning. Gets another title in Barcelona and heads into Madrid with some real momentum.

      Reply

  72. I still can’t believe Rafa just won MC…it was like a dream..after all those long and painful years,this feels like surreal to me…THANK YOU GOD!!THANK YOU!!!

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    • MA,

      Yes it is like a dream! Seeing how happy Rafa was when he lifted the trophy, just warmed my heart! That is what I love to see – happy Rafa! It has to be a great feeling for him to win this title again, his 10th! A record! Now he has the most clay titles, surpassing Guillermo Vilas with 50 wins!

      So Rafa has made more history, which is why I think this win is going to help him so much. It’s more than just a title. He has made his mark with records that most likely will never be broken.

      It feels like a weight has been lifted off me now! I hope that Rafa can go on a tear this clay season!

      It’s been a great day and chatting with happy Rafa fans is a good thing!

      Reply

      • Nny!Hey…IT IS A GREAT DAY!!My God Nny..i still remembered every each words we traded with each other after he lost at AO and how dejected u felt at that time,and i said to u to have a patience because even then i believe that Rafa will taste his own heaven soon..it’s just a matter of time..and you’re absolutely right nny!It feels like a heavy stone have been lifted from our shoulder…and oh!that relief feeling!..it’s undescribable!!So so soooooo happy!!Woooh!

        Reply

    • Mary..I respect u very very much,whether as a Rafa fan and more so as a human being..i think you’re one of the most smart and intelligent poster’s here..i think you’re also a very amazing human being in your real life and i’m very honoured to know u as one of my dear rafans here…BUT..

      The thing is I LIKE/LOVE AMY and I LOVE/LIKE MARGOT…whether AMY is MARGOT or MARGOT IS AMY is not important to me Mary..same with i don’t care much what u are on TX..u can be whoever u want there Mary..it’s nothing to do with me,although i admit,i really like your moniker there Mary because she/he is a warrior who’s always defended posters who’s got abused by mean poster on TX…she/he’s a hero to me..always will be..
      Now,back to Amy and Margot…they’re both a very amazing human being Mary..and i don’t have to look past what they’re projected here or on TX to be friends with them..i like very much what i saw in them both Mary..and i don’ have a right to judge both of them…as far as i know they’re free to be whoever they want..Amy is like my own sister here and Margot also like my sister on TX..i have a chemistry with them both Mary..and if u let me,i also wants to be friends with u too…and that been said,i want to ask u as one of the senior poster’s here to let me continue my association with Amy..heh heh..not that she’s here anyway..it’s only once in a while when i summoned her,then she’ll come..Is it okay with u Mary?

      Reply

        • Me too Hawks..but whether amy is Margot and vice versa are not relevant now..the damage has already been done and someone very important to us has already been hurt..and much much more important,we lost a very very good poster,very loving,smart and very precious here..it was like we lost a very precious germ..at least,that’s how i feel hawks..

          Reply

          • augusta00000000000008, MA has ALREADY explained very clearly. Please read more carefully.

            Agreed MA.

            I wish Amy and Deuce still posted here. Haven’t been to TX for a while. Might have to drop over to call out those looking for an excuse to hate on Rafa over that Goffin call. I’d point out to them that no player gifts a point to another player from the far side, including Federer when a bad call (exactly the same situation) denied Rafa triple break point in the 2005 Miami final that if converted, would have allowed Rafa to serve for the championship.

          • Mira Andi (AT 1:31 PM),

            If my memory serves me correctly, one poster named ‘amy’ wrote on the Grandstand that she’ll be busy with political events until summer.

          • AT 1:31 PM says: “I wish Amy and Deuce still posted here.”
            .
            Poster ‘deucy’ wrote on the Grandstand: “…I can’t stand Uncle T. I think he is a bully…”
            I typed the same her sentence in Google Search and saw almost the same written on the Tennis-X: Margot Says: “…Re: Uncle Toni. I think he is a bully…” (March 22nd, 2015)
            I believe that there is not enough U.Toni haters for her taste on the GS (and obviousy there is a lot of haters on the Tennis-X; Fedlovers, for example, have always hated Toni).

          • OMG!!! As if there are only two posters in the world that think Toni was a bully!!!!

            Even Toni admits that he thinks sometimes he was too hard on Rafa.

            Maybe Toni is Amy and Deucey. All end in the same eeee sound.

        • it is you who post under various identities not me. when i told margot last summer that we had worked out that you were holdserve she said ‘why am i so not surprised’.

          Reply

  74. Federer says he doesn’t want to play on clay is because he doesn’t want to aggravate his knee injury. He is well aware that the King of Clay could do well in the clay season and pass him in the race, but he says he is not chasing rankings he just wants to be fit to go on playing.

    I have said before that I had the very same operation in 2013 when I bruised the cartilage on my knee when I slipped on the sidewalk and whilst it’s healed there is still a sensation on my left knee and if I move my leg the wrong way it hurts. The surgeon actually told me that it would never be 100% again.

    Reply

        • lol. Can’t be doing with the BFF groupies. Nor the incessant pre-occupation with sussing out who is who on different sites. Incidentally Hawks is right Margot is Margot/Deucy. Her style of writing is unmistakable and she doesn’t hide behind different monikers.

          i

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          • I agree! We don’t need that kind of nonsense at all! There has been too much of that and it’s both pointless and has nothing to do with tennis!

          • btw, Hawkeye was right. I also got re-directed to a spam page or something when I clicked on a tenngrand link via google..

          • I see people here celebrating Rafa’s great run and just being happy about it.

            That doesn’t sound like a social site or some kind of love-in. It’s just a good, old fashioned felt good moment for fans who have wanted to see Rafa win a title. Nothing wrong with that.

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