Expert picks are back for Sunday’s Monte-Carlo final between Stefanos Tsitsipas and Andrey Rublev. A three-team panel debates which man will become a Masters 1000 champion for the first time in his career.
Ricky: This may not be Rafael Nadal vs. Novak Djokovic, but Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Andrey Rublev is just about as good as you could ask for in the Monte-Carlo final. Heck, it may be a lot better than Nadal vs. Djokovic (or Nadal vs. anyone on clay), because it should be extremely competitive. The head-to-head series is all tied up at 3-3 on the main tour and they have split their two previous clay-court encounters. Rublev won a competitive three-setter in the 2020 Hamburg final before Tsitsipas cruised 7-5, 6-2, 6-3 a little more than a week later at the French Open. This looks like a 50/50 match on paper, in which case I will lean toward the player who has had an easier path in Monte-Carlo–and the one who dominated their last clay-court meeting. Tsitsipas in 3: 4-6, 6-4, 6-3.
Cheryl: Since “expert picks” implies actually choosing a winner, I suppose I can’t say “it’s a toss-up”…but I kind of want to anyway. Tsitsipas has a lovely clay-court game and under normal circumstances I would pick him over Rublev on the dirt. He’s quick on his feet, he displays the necessary patience required on clay, and he’s striking the ball well. These, however, are not normal circumstances. Rublev is absolutely hitting the cover off the ball right now. His win over Roberto Bautista Agut was the match of the tournament by some margin. It’s also tempting to figure his upset of Nadal into the “Rublev’s form” calculations, but Nadal played so uncharacteristically poorly that the only relevant factor from that match is the mental edge of having beaten Nadal on clay. Rublev and Tsitsipas are an even 3-3 and their matches have generally been competitive, although Rublev nipped Tsitsipas earlier this year in Rotterdam in straight sets. They’re both in great form and I expect it to be a nail-biter to the end. Still, I can’t pick against Rublev; this just feels like his tournament. Rublev in 3: 7-5, 4-6, 7-6(2).
Pete (Tennis Acumen): After more than a decade of Masters 1000s being won by the Big 3 and Andy Murray, the rest of the field is only now beginning to win these prestigious titles. Monte-Carlo brings us an intriguing final between Tsitsipas and Rublev, who plan to reside in the ATP top 10 for most of the rest of this decade. Rublev, whose ranking was No. 70 at the time, served notice to the tour when he soundly defeated Roger Federer at the 2019 Cincinnati Masters; his upward trajectory has been steady ever since. Tsitsipas has been a threat on the ATP Tour since his run to the Canada Masters one year earlier in 2018 and has been in the top 10 for the last 25 months. While the abbreviated schedule last year significantly impacted some players on tour, Tsitsipas and Rublev have been able to stay the course and win often. The Russian has a slightly better resume in 2021 and for this reason he gets the nod in Sunday’s final. Rublev in 3: 6-4, 5-7, 6-3.
who ya got?
Tsitipas has improved just enough and just in time.
Tsitsipas in 3.
Tsitsipas is the better clay court player and will probably win most of their duels on this surface.
I’m leaning towards Stefanos.
From a betting perspective, you would think over 22.5 games is the way to go, with both players being fully motivated.