Mission Impossible: Predicting the Top 10 Americans at the end of 2013

A five-year-old would have a better shot at explaining the Nash equilibrium than a tennis expert would have at correctly predicting the 2013 order of finish for the 10 highest-ranked American men. Put five of those tennis experts together and what you are going to have at the end of the year is utter embarrassment. After all, every American other than Sam Querrey is either playing terrible, hurt, young and unproven, or old and over the hill. Alas, this five-team panel gives its best effort….

Ricky:

1. Sam Querrey
2. John Isner
3. Ryan Harrison
4. James Blake
5. Michael Russell
6. Tim Smyczek
7. Rhyne Williams
8. Steve Johnson
9. Jack Sock
10. Rajeev Ram

Is Tommy Haas available? He’s an American citizen, right? We’re desperate at this point! Alas, I guess we have to let Haasi play under his German flag and this is what we are left to deal with. Querrey and Isner are no-brainers at No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, and Harrison at No. 3 is self-explanatory. The wild card (pun intended) in this, of course, is Blake. He still has plenty of talent left in him at 33 years old and I think he will get enough wild cards during the U.S. Open Series and catch fire just enough times to surpass every American other than the first three. Granted, he could just as easily finish behind 10 countrymen, but for now I am rolling the dice.

After that, it’s a crapshoot between Russell, Smyczek, and Williams. Rhyne is on fire right now, but Iron Mike and Tiny Tim have a ranking advantage at the moment and that will help them gain direct entry into some tournaments that Rhyne cannot get into. That may change sooner rather than later, but at this point the smart money is on Rhyne finishing third among those three. The next wave of Johnson, Sock, and Ram should come in right around the cut line of the Top 100. As for Brian Baker and Mardy Fish, there is no reason to have any confidence. Hard luck for both of those guys.

Ben (New York Times ‘Straight Sets’):

1. Sam Querrey
2. John Isner
3. Mardy Fish
4. Brian Baker
5. Ryan Harrison
6. Michael Russell
7. Tim Smyczek
8. James Blake
9. Rhyne Williams
10. Rajeev Ram

First off, this is completely impossible to do this year…just putting that out there. Querrey on top seems fairly safe at this point considering his and Isner’s current trajectories, but after that God only knows. I kept Fish and Baker where they are just because of the big cushions they have over the rest of the pack (though I realize that didn’t do Young any good last year). I see Harrison bottoming out soon then climbing back up to around where he was in the second half of the season. But while there might not be any Yanks Top 10, I think all these guys and maybe even one or two more will finish inside the Top 100.

Romi (Tennis Grandstand):

1. Sam Querrey
2. John Isner
3. Ryan Harrison
4. Tim Smyczek
5. Rhyne Williams
6. Steve Johnson
7. Mardy Fish
8. Michael Russell
9. Jack Sock
10. Brian Baker
Honorable mention: Christian Harrison

While some have already started writing off the No. 3 non-injured, non-retired American, I’m still standing firmly behind the 20-year-old Ryan Harrison and his younger brother, Christian. Ryan really doesn’t have that many slam points to defend this year…if only his first-round draws would be better. The No. 4 spot can easily be filled by Smyczek, who within the last year or so has finally started playing to his strengths as a smaller-framed player instead of going for a flashy forehand. The results have started to follow.

The players I chose as No. 5 and 6 can just as easily be No. 3 and 4. When the majority of your points span across one or two tournaments, you’re in prime position to make a shakeup on the bigger stages. And that is exactly where Williams and Johnson fall. Williams has more than halved his ranking since last August, projected to reach No. 133 next Monday by reaching the second round of Memphis. Similarly, Johnson, similarly has jumped 111 spots in the same time to No. 134. The key point here is that—aside from Smyczek—Williams and Johnson have been two of the most consistent Americans throughout the fall and winter. I don’t think I’m alone in saying we are expecting big things of guys who, after mostly only playing Challengers, can take seeded players to five sets at slams.

As a parting thought, it’s not hard to imagine that the Top 9 can end in the Top 100, with Nos. 3-7 all within about 30 rankings spots of each other (45-75). American tennis and its rivalries have returned, my friends.

Steen (Tennis East Coast):

1. Sam Querrey
2. John Isner
3. Michael Russell
4. Rhyne Williams
5. Ryan Harrison
6. Tim Smyczek
7. Mardy Fish
8. Steve Johnson
9. James Blake
10. Jack Sock

Querrey is playing better than Isner and has more upside being clearly Top-15 level, while Isner seems to have flat-lined after a quality 2012 campaign and is going to struggle to stay in the Top 20 like he is now. I tend to think a lot of opponents have simply figured his game out. Russell is consistently consistent and was only .500 on the ATP level last year. If he can get his ranking to the point where he is playing more ATP events and fewer Challengers, he could finish Top 70 or at least Top 80. Williams is hitting his stride and is due for a serious breakthrough; not sure where it will come, but I could see him making a few semis this year and maybe even an ATP final. He could also be Top 70 or better.

Harrison is the opposite end, struggling and with ATP points to defend. He needs to get it together to keep in the Top 80, otherwise he will be stuck with ATP qualies and Challengers, which won’t help him at all. Smyczek is playing the best tennis of his career and is nipping around the Top 100. Given that he is playing more ATP matches this year with better results, I expect him to climb but I do think he has a ceiling. Fish is still sick basically, may well retire by the end of this year, and while keeps losing points by not playing. Johnson and Blake will both duke it out to be Top 100 by the end of the year. Sock just seems a bit distant and aloof with his game right now and I don’t think you can count on him for much besides staying where he is right now… below No. 150. As for Baker, you can’t count on someone who is coming off a serious knee injury and, as an unfortunate result, missed his opportunity to earn a ton of free points before April at events he didn’t even play in last year.

Josh (The Sixth Set):

1. Sam Querrey
2. John Isner
3. Tim Smyczek
4. Michael Russell
5. Brian Baker
6. Ryan Harrison
7. Rhyne Williams
8. Mardy Fish
9. Steve Johnson
10. Denis Kudla

Querrey is the most consistent guy in a less-than-impressive American male contingent, in my opinion. Sam is kind of like a minivan; he’s not going to overwhelm you, but he is reliable. Isner’s serve still wins him his fair share of matches this year, but a lack of confidence and an abysmal return game will hold him back from returning to the Top 10 this year. Moreover, from what I’m seeing thus far, he seems even less aggressive than he was under the tutelage of former coach Craig Boynton. After losing to Thomaz Bellucci and Denis Istomin on indoor hard, I can’t say that his 2013 results breed much confidence.

Filling in 3-10 is where it gets tricky (and I’m not even confident about Nos. 1 and 2). There are so many injured and struggling Americans currently in the Top 100 and a handful of rising talents just on the fringe of the threshold. With Andy Roddick retired and Fish a walking question mark, this is where we see the biggest ranking dropoff. With that said, I give the nod to Smyczek as the third-best American come November. At 25, he has more experience than the younger class below him, possesses a solid ground game, and seems to be more emotionally stable on the court (a trait that’s been rather difficult to find in Americans of late). At 34, Russell will use his steady to play to remain in the Top 100 through the end of the year, and with Harrison losing to the Benjamin Beckers and Lukasz Kubots of the ATP Tour and Baker as fragile as a glass vase, that’s good enough for No. 4. Hopefully Baker will be back from his meniscus tear in time to be 100 percent for Wimbledon, where he has to defend round of 16 points.

Williams’ career trajectory has taken a sudden upward turn since winning the Australian Open wild card playoffs last December. He has since won his first Challenger title after taking a seeded Florian Mayer to five sets in Melbourne. I don’t know if I’m in the minority, but I don’t believe Fish has played his last match. As for Johnson, after a five-set battle with No. 10 seed Nicolas Almagro at the Aussie Open and a run to the quarters in San Jose, the two-time NCAA singles champ has proven his collegiate success can translate to the pro game. He’ll finish 2013 just outside the Top 100 alongside Fish. Kudla, a Ukrainian-born American, enjoyed a solid 2012 behind two Challenger titles. He hasn’t exploded out of the gates in 2013, but I foresee a good year for Kudla that puts him just above Blake and Ram in the year-end rankings.

OVERALL:

1) Sam Querrey (1^st, 1^st, 1^st, 1^st, 1^st)

2) John Isner (2^nd, 2^nd, 2^nd, 2^nd, 2^nd)

3) Ryan Harrison (3^rd, 3^rd, 5^th, 5^th, 6^th)

4) Michael Russell (3^rd, 4^th, 5^th, 6^th, 8^th)

5) Tim Smyczek (3^rd, 4^th, 6^th, 6^th, 7^th)

6) Rhyne Williams (4^th, 5^th, 7^th, 7^th, 9^th)

7) Mardy Fish (3^rd, 7^th, 7^th, 8^th, unranked)

8) Brian Baker (4^th, 5^th, 10^th, unranked, unraked)

9) Steve Johnson (6^th, 8^th, 8^th, 9^th, unranked)

10) James Blake (4^th, 8^th, 9^th, unranked, unranked)

[polldaddy poll=6909089]

Comments and your own Top 10 submissions are encouraged!