Miami SF preview and prediction: Federer vs. Kyrgios

Roger Federer and Nick Kyrgios will be going head-t0-head for the second time in their careers when they collide in the semifinals of the Miami Open on Friday night.

Kyrgios won their only previous encounter 6-7(2), 7-6(5), 7-6(12) on the clay courts of Madrid in 2015, where he saved two match points before converting his sixth opportunity in the final-set tiebreaker. They were supposed to face each other again at the Indian Wells Masters earlier this month, but the 21-year-old withdrew prior to a quarterfinal clash due to illness.

Nothing has slowed Kyrgios down in Miami, where has advanced to the final four with victories over Damir Dzumhur (6-4, 6-3), Ivo Karlovic (in a third-set tiebreaker), David Goffin (7-6(5), 6-3), and Alexander Zverev (6-4, 6-7(9), 6-3). The world No. 16 is now 14-3 this season–including 7-0 in his last seven matches–and is through to his third semifinal.

Of course, no one has been better than Federer in 2017. The 35-year-old Swiss boasts a 17-1 record with titles at the Australian Open and in Indian Wells, and he is back up to sixth in the rankings and could find himself at No. 4 following this fortnight. Federer has not been entirely dominant in Miami, but battled into the semis by defeating Frances Tiafoe, Juan Martin Del Potro, Roberto Bautista Agut, and Tomas Berdych. After needing a pair of tiebreakers to get past Bautista Agut in the fourth round, the 18-time major champion fought off two match points to beat Berdych 6-2, 3-6, 7-6(6) on Thursday night.

“Obviously he’s the greatest player of all time,” Kyrgios said of his upcoming opponent. “But the way that he takes time away from players–that’s his strength. He likes to play his pace of tennis. He likes to take away time and play aggressive. He obviously like to play really aggressive on return (and) likes to get through his service games very quick…. I know what’s going to be coming.”

“They like the big stage,” Federer responded when asked about Kyrgios and Zverev before Thursday’s second quarterfinal had taken place. “Both have a big serve. Both (have a) real nice backhand, and the belief–so that makes them just very tough to play in any given match.”

Kyrgios certainly has the belief even against the best players in the world. In addition to his 1-0 mark against Federer, the mercurial Aussie is 2-0 at Novak Djokovic’s expense and an even 1-1 against Rafael Nadal.

Moreover, Kyrgios thrives on the big stage–and the big stage is exactly what he has been given in Miami. He has already played three night matches; one on the Grandstand (vs. Dzumhur) before twice enjoying night-session treatment in the stadium (vs. Goffin and vs. Zverev). Federer, who displayed signs of mortality against Bautista Agut and Berdych), has played day matches throughout the entire tournament up to this point. The No. 4 seed’s relative struggles in his last two outings and the fact that he has not yet played in these exact conditions have to be considered factors heading into Friday.

Nick at night equals upset alert.

Pick: Kyrgios in 3

[polldaddy poll=9712145]

190 Comments on Miami SF preview and prediction: Federer vs. Kyrgios

    • Agreed. Kygrios in three if he doesn’t withdraw due to injury. This guy enjoys playing the big boys at the big stages. Fed did look vulnerable vs Berdych, and Berdych should have served better to win that MP in the TB to win the match. If Kygrios gets to MP against Fed, I don’t think he will let it slip away.

  1. Kyrgios sure can beat Fed. He can beat anyone if he decides to play. However, as I said before, Nick has too much respect for Maestro, he will not want to look imperious as he usually does, as he does against Rafa for instance. Since withdrawing is out of question, he may as well just come out looking flat and uninterested. I really hope Nick proves me wrong this time and comes out strong and focused, but…”A burnt child dreads the fire”…so many times now I believed in Nick and he utterly disappointed me with his attitude and lack of dedication…don’t think it will be any different this time again…
    Also, don’t think Fed being tired would be an issue. There won’t be long points in this match, exactly as Fed would preferred…

    Fed in 3

  2. Fed has played well only against Delpo and he was the strongest opponent. Against weaker opponent he displayed a lackluster performance. With semi and final he would be back to his best and will go on to win the title.

    Fed in 2 tight sets

    • Delpo the strongest opponent?? Delpo was so one dimensional in their match, hitting CC BH exchanges with Fed almost the whole match!

      Watch how Agut played against Fed, rushed Fed and Fed had to scramble to cover his FH and many times he’s late to get to the ball. Agut was smart enough to move Fed from left to right and vice versa, attacking Fed’s FH to score points, even when Agut doesn’t have Delpo’s big weapons.

      Even ‘Bird brain’ Berdy had done better than Delpo! It’s a pity that Delpo hadn’t the belief to beat the big boys yet, despite his big weapons, he was disappointing vs Djoko too.

      • Delpo was frustrating to watch. I really like him but sometimes he can annoy you because of he just refuses to go DTL with his backhand. I understand the wrist issues but there is no reason for not going DTL at all. His backhand becomes a safe haven for good players. His slices are not bad but not that great either so backhand can really limit his game even though it’s a consistent shot.

        • Currently if Agut and Delpo meet each other than most probably Delpo might win even though Agut has defeated him in the past.

          Agut really has no weapon to trouble top players and he would like to grind and that works with lower ranked players but not against the Big 4

          • Agut vs Delpo has nothing to do with Agut vs Fed and Delpo vs Fed.

            And, nobody here is saying Agut is superior to Delpo! Agut doesn’t quite have any weapons. He is just solid and consistent from the baseline. What we are talking about is that he tried to vary the patterns of play more and changed directions of his shots more smartly. Delpo never did that. His limited game will be good enough to beat most but not the big 4 perhaps.

            When he was beating big 4 in Olympics, he was actually going for some backhands DTL. But at that time, his forehand was just insane and everything else didn’t matter as much.

          • Currently? Not necessary as Delpo hasn’t get back to his best level yet.

            Agut’s problem, other than his ‘no weapon’, is his non belief that he could beat a top player. I’ve seen it many times about him, it’s typical of him, he had Raonic on the rope at AO this year, but let the set slipped away. He could’ve won two sets and then Raonic would have to go five sets to beat him.

            He’s finitely not of the caliber to beat the top guys, he lacks the tennis acumen to seize the opportunity and plays the right shot when he has his opponent on the rope; a few right shots at the right time and he could’ve won a set against Fed I feel, but he’s just not good enough to do it.

  3. One problem with Kyrgios is that he has the tendency to drop mid-court, short balls. They are basically floaters. He does that especially with his backhand when he just ‘pushes’ the ball with his backhand. You CANNOT get away with those against Federer! He will swallow them in a flash! He must avoid doing that often.

    Having said that, Kyrgios has the necessary weapons to take Fed down here. If he can serve really well (which I think he will) and stay very focused and determined, he can surely get his second win over Roger.

    Kyrgios is not fearful of the big 4.

  4. Kyrgios in 3. He’s too consistent from the back and has the serve advantage. Plus he believes he should win.

    Withdrawing from their previous match in IW is a worry.

    • Yup, don’t know why you’d pick against a guy who’s 17-1 and has lost just one set out of his last 19.

      Normally I’d give Nick a 40-50% chance in this one because he’s mentally very confident and plays the big points well but looks like he tweaked his knee last night. He also treats #GOAT2.0 with waaaay too much respect which will give #GOAT2.0 a mental advantage.

  5. In my eyes this is the match of the YEAR….very excited I just cant go against so I’ll stick with my prediction of a Roger and Nadal final. Roger in 3 CLOSE sets

  6. I definitely felt like Fed had the advantage before their Indian Wells match was “cancelled”. But now, for this match, I give Kyrgios the edge. I’m not even picking a winner, though. Could go either way.

  7. Both were probably a little bit fresher in Indian Wells (until of course Nick got food poisoning) but this shapes as a really exciting match. Kyrgios generally gets psyched up for the big names, in fact I read the other day that he’s one of only two players have beaten the big three on their first attempts, the other being his Davis Cup coach, Hewitt. If Nick’s focussed, and of course that’s usually the biggest ‘if’ with him, he can win this. Naturally he’ll rely on the serve, but the baseline rallies will be interesting. Will he play super-aggressive and try and go for the lines, or is he content to engage in the longer rallies with Federer? If it’s the former and he’s in the zone, the game could be on his strings, but if he’s hot and cold then that strategy might just play into Fed’s preference for fast tennis. If it’s the latter, he could potentially wear Fed down by running him around side to side. On the other hand, Fed’s generally more adept at constructing the points, and he might be able to outmaneuver Kyrgios this way if Nick isn’t careful.

    Fed in 3

  8. I think Kyrgios has a real chance to get the upset here. I don’t know that I but into th S idea that he will have too much respect for Fed not to beat him. The idea is to win and I would think Kyrgios would have even more motivation because it’s Fed. It’s a big prize.

    I don’t know about the knee. If he plays then we have to assume it’s okay. I think Fed was fortunate to get past Berdy. He did not look that great at times in the match. It’s just that Berdy couldn’t get it done when it mattered.

    I think it could go either way. Fed has the experience and the confidence. Kyrgios has the outrageous talent and explosive shots to get it done. Kyrgios will need to remain focused and not get distracted. He let it happen to him at times against Zverev, but still kept it together to get the win.

    This is a close one and tough to pick. But I think that Kyrgios can get the win in 3 sets.

  9. I think that if Federer continues to serve a relatively low percentage of first serves in like he has been in Miami, he will really struggle against Nick. If Nick gets into a groove of crushing return-winners off of Fed’s 2nd serve, it will not be good for Fed… If Fed can serve really well, he can at least get it to tiebreaks and then try to up his game in the tb’s. I don’t realistically see how Fed can win if he serves under 70%… Obviously anything can happen in a tennis match, but he will struggle a lot if he can’t get 70%+ first serves in, I believe.

  10. (((Jeff Sackmann)))‏ @tennisabstract 42m42 minutes ago

    Last Fed loss in the match after a third-set TB win: 2006 Rome Masters, d. Nalbandian in SF, l. to Nadal (in 5th set TB) in F.
    (excluding the 2014 WTF: beat Stan in SF in 3rd-set TB, withdrew from final)

    #CryBaby
    #MirkasRightLOL

  11. (((Jeff Sackmann)))‏ @tennisabstract 42m42 minutes ago

    Fed might be tired, but … the last 11 times he won a best-of-3 match in a deciding tiebreak, he won his next match. 9 of 11 in straights.

  12. Fed is the better tennis player, Nick is the better athlete who happens to play tennis.
    Depends on which Nick shows up, I think ego will win out, Nick will show up and beat Fed in 3.

  13. RT a Rafan: “In Spanish presser Rafa was asked if he could choose, who would he prefer for the final. Rafa said even if he knew, he’d not tell it. ” 🙂

  14. Fed said in the presser yesterday that he is NOT feeling tired. He hasn’t played marathon or anything. He had a walkover in IW and the matches here have been under 2 hours. He showed tremendous fitness in the AO. PLayed three 5 setters. I don’t expect him to be tired. The only thing is he could be emotionally drained a bit so mentally a bit tired. That only time will tell.

    I hope Nick is healthy.

    • I agree with you, VR. I think if there is any sort of tiredness with Federer tonight, it would be largely emotional at this point. We’ve probably overstated how physically tired he might be… Yeah, it’s been a while since he’s played this much tennis, but it’s not like he took two years off haha. He’s spent a whole career playing tons of matches and being relatively physically unaffected by them.

  15. An example of a ‘floater backhand’ from Nick there at Deuce. Got Punished!

    Now nick hits a series of awesome backhands. Adv!

  16. Federer’s break point conversion rate has been atrocious this tournament… Missing that chance in Nick’s opening service game will not help matters! He’s probably so pumped already after saving that break point…

  17. One more thing about the break points and then I won’t mention them again- This break point conversion rate will be the Kyrgios that break the Federer’s back tonight…

  18. Wow that serve from Federer at game point. Majestic!

    Fed cruising on his service games and Nick struggling. Serve bailing Nick out. He must improve his baseline game or he is gone.

  19. Phenomenal topspin forehand to finish the game. That one had so much action on it. Fed is actually able to generate more topspin with his bigger racket. I was curious and suspected that would be the case. Did research and found out that beginning of 2016 his average RPM on the forehand in Brisbane was 3000-3050 RPM, whereas the famous 2012 numbers given by John Yandall quoted fed’s forehand avg at 2700 RPM.

  20. Crowd booing Nick after he says ‘shutup’ to someone in the crowd whose cell phone rang twice. he should not let the crowd get to him.

    Big DF from Fed! 3-2 Nick. He he cranks two big serves here, fed’s in big trouble.

  21. Rog seems more tense in this match..he usually calm and collected…but then face someone who has the big serve tend to do that to u..

    • The crowd is a disgrace! It’s more like a soccer crowd.

      Nik is going to be up against it with this crowd. He should not let them get to him.

      • Mohammad Llayani is doing a really good job in trying to keep things under control.

        Nik has to really try to settle down and focus on the tennis.

      • Nny…This kind of crowd that makes Nole fans so angry because they will cheered and do everything for Rog..even cheered his opponent’s UE’s,lost points and mistakes,especially the crowd in Ny..and Nole got his fair of this awful behavior..

    • Fed wins TBs because he’s calm under pressure; the others are not. Fed made so many errors in the TBs yet his opponents couldn’t take advantage.

      In the first place this first set shouldn’t even need to go to a TB, Kyrgios just not good enough to take advantage after breaking serve.

    • I don’t think he’s like Sam Stosur in that regard. More like Djokovic who performs badly when crowd is clearly against him.

      • I honestly was just assuming he is the type to play better when everything is against him. I figured with his personality he would invite the booing haha!

  22. Alone against everybody! Nick lets the crowd get to him…great play by Fed in crucial moments though…returning great, those ROS are awesome…

    • People generally think he’s a brat, and Miami spectators tend to not be nice. I wish people could put aside their dislike of a player as a person and just appreciate the tennis, though…

  23. As I predicted, this match is going to come down to Roger’s ROS. He started getting a read on the Kyrgios serve toward the end of the set, and if he keeps it up he should pull through.

  24. Fed anticipated where Kygrios was going to serve, Kygrios serving out wide played to Fed’s hand, when I thought serving down the T would catch Fed unprepared. He then DF trying to serve down the T next and handed Fed a SP which Fed gladly obliged by taking it.

    Now Fed will win in two. Kygrios still inexperienced to take advantage of leads when playing against top guys, when the top guys are playing well.

    • What makes you so sure Fed will win in two? Fed won the first set in a tiebreak the last time they played and Kyrgios won.

        • I don’t disagree with you that Nick could lose heart. But he did look really out of sorts and tired right before he broke to serve out the match against Zverev yesterday, so who knows?

  25. Kygrios keeps hitting CC to Fed’s BH, not going to work. At least he’s stepping forward in set two to dictate points so doing better now, at least holding serve easily in set two.

  26. Can’t belive Mirka’s behavior to whistle along with those idiots who decided to punish Nick’s decision to change the racquet?! Unbelievable!

  27. I think nick’s standard not reach the level like his match against Zverev yesterday..or maybe it is neutralize by Rog’s superb skills..

      • Yeah Kevin,nick’s made a lot of unnecessary UE’s and his shot’s also less lethal..not very sharp..but then I already expect this…he must be drained after the epic match against Karlovic and Zverev…He’s lucky tho because his massive serves rescued him many times…but I give him credit for his great fighting spirit…

  28. I was right it would go to three! Way to go Nick! He played brave and it paid off!

    Fed will win in the end, though! But Nick deserved this one set!

  29. Well at least Kygrios didn’t lose heart and fought through. Well done for winning the second set TB. Hopefully he still has it to play a good third set.

    • Nik is showing some grit in roughing it out with this crowd.

      Uh oh! TV called in Nik! They said he’s been at 26 seconds and had a soft warning already.

  30. I don’t understand why nick so reluctant to make a DTL shots…he kept hitting to Rog’s BH….like Rafa!Lol!!

    • It is absolutely outrageous! Shsme on that crowd!

      You could sense it coming. When Nik had it on his racket, the crowd was going to get on him.

  31. Boo to the crowd, so disgusting! It tints the win for Fed in my book, very disgusting from the crowd.

    I hope Rafa teach these crowd and Fed a lesson. I totally dislike such fawning over Fed, the commentators included.

    Kygrios has himself to blame too, for literally throwing away the first set by giving back the break with a lousy service game.

    • Lucky,

      Right on! This is an embarrassment to the sport. I am sick to death if crowds trying to fix the match for Fed! I am sick of the over the top her worship and preening from the commentators!

      I have had it! I want Rafa to go out there and play like his life depends on it and gets this win!

      This win is tainted for sure! I am speaking as someone who’s doesn’t even like Kyrgios, but even I can’t take this disgusting spectacle!

  32. I am super happy Roger won but the crowd was total bullshit. Show respect for Nick the guy is fighting as hard as he can and playing magnificent tennis and seems to have turned the corner mentally but the crowd got him riled up and that’s understandable. Unbelievably atrocious behavior from the crowd. Honestly that racket smash was justified. Miami crowd is full of jerks. Just saw one dude yell at Kyrgios as he was walking out. Total bs bro the crowd behavior sort of tarnished how awesome the quality of the match was as a whole. Hold your head up high Nick. He’s so gonna be pissed about this in the press conference and makes sense that he would be. I believe he and Fed will be the two biggest favorites at Wimbledon if they keep this level up. Really hope Nick recovers. Again I’m a Federer fan and very glad he won but this was unfortunate. People have to forgive Kyrgios at some point.

    • You may be happy that your guy win, but I am sickened by that vile display! How would you feel if things were reversed and it was Fed who was cheated of a win because of an unruly mob of a crowd?

      Sorry, but your words ring hollow to me. Fed got the win and that’s all that matters! Not the way he got it!

      • I was just trying to say that even though I’m a fed fan I get how bullshit this was. Kyrgios is one of my favorites players as well so this was especially unfortunate to watch.

  33. Disgraceful crowds!Unfortunately this situations will keep happen everytime Roger play…Nole will ride this situation successfully like he did in USO 15 but nick,he still inexperienced and need to learn a lot how to handle this awful situation..

    • MA,

      I rarely lose it over a tennis match! But this was too much for me! I have a bad taste in my mouth from watching this debacle! The Fed pandering and hero worship has become toxic!

      • Nny…Yeah!me too!Only rafa got this reaction from me before but to see nick lose like that makes me hurt and feel for him…hopefully he will learn smartly how to handle this situations as he aging to be a matured man in the future…I’m very proud to see how my half countryman fought tooth and nail and showed that he is a very very talented young player and got a tool to be a great player one day[if straightened his head that is!]…

  34. Also I don’t think the crowd will be so crazy like this and against Rafa in the final because Rafa is a legend who most love and respect but Kyrgios has made some bad mistakes and because of that he was gonna be up against it from the start.

  35. These players, simply don’t have the guts to finish Fed off when they have the upper hand! Berdych is one, Kygrios is another. Playing against Fed, when you’re up a break, you have to up your own service game to hold serve, just can’t take things easy.

    Rafa will be another one I’m afraid. The way he’s playing so far, won’t cut it against an inspired Fed and the disgusting Fed backing crowd.

  36. Also, Rafa doesn’t give people a single thing to boo about. If you have the track record that Nick has, and you act like he does on the court, and you’re playing Roger Federer in Miami, you’re gonna get booed.

      • And crowd cheered first serve faults and unforced errors.

        You could see after he beat Fed that he wasn’t celebrating as he should have because he was upset with the boorish zombie fedfawn crowd.

    • Nah, they booed him there at AO2014, when he took a long MTO. Those were mainly the Swiss fans, wanting Stan to win and stops Rafa from chasing Fed’s slam tally. They do anything to protect Fed’s legacy.

  37. I badly wanted Rafa to get double career slam at AO..Fed stopped him

    After 4 unsuccessful attempts, badly want Rafa to get Miami this time..again Fed to deny him?

    I somehow cant see Rafa beating Fed as Fed barely making errors, timed ball very well today off both wings…Rafa may let the final chance of getting Miami get to him.

  38. This was the worst overall crowd I’ve seen in my lifetime, though. They don’t give a shit about anything. You can just smell the booze through the t.v….

    • USO fedfawn crowd was every bit as bad against Nole in 2015.

      Nole channeled it for a while but the constant lack of appreciation from the fedfawn crowd has been a factor in his eventual burnout.

  39. Federer at almost 36 faster, more flexible, better reaction time and stamina than ever before.

    How is he doing this.

    #Rhetorical.

  40. Miami has lot of spanish speaking people

    Also Rafa is experienced enough to not let crowds get to him

    Rafa needs to come to play.

  41. I am also a little bit disappointed to see Roger celebrated after the match without respect of nick’s misery…by his fans doing of all reason..

    • It was a super-tense, extremely close match, and he won… He gave Nick a nice pat on the chest and said something to him as he was walking out. It’s like he did cartwheels around the court and didn’t say a word to Nick. Shitty one-sided crowds is a part of almost every other sport. I don’t know why it has to be such a controversial thing in tennis.

      • Because it’s only for one guy all the fucking time.

        Cheering opponent errors and calling out during serve and returns.

        Disrespects the rest of the tour and the sport.

  42. RT @TheBorisBecker: We should embrace @NickKyrgios for bringing #energy #quality#youthfulness #spirit into #tennis …#miamiopen2017

    Except they disrespect the game instead with fedfawn blind bias.

    Not tennis fans.

  43. RT @BenRothenberg: One of the more hostile crowds I can remember in tennis recently, and turned against Nick Kyrgios. He’s riding the highs and lows. ?

    Pathetic.

  44. Just finished watching the match; full day of playing sport, and no time to watch. A few comments.
    1. The match of the tournament, and one of the best 3-set matches I have seen in a long time. Hard to recall a match where there was less between the two players, both playing at a very high level. I actually thought it got better as the match went on. I thought Roger’s ROS got better (and was the key, if there was one), but Nick’s got better as well. I love his aggression and his attitude. I also loved that he smashed his racquet on his way to shake hands. Showed how much he wanted it.
    2. Yes, the crowd sucked, but that’s mostly about Nick. Every crowd is pro-Fed, but Kyrgios is tennis’ bad-boy, and the comment about Wawrinka’s GF especially set fans (and players) against him. Not too often that you have other guys on the tour talking about how a player needs someone to smash his mouth in (Ryan Harrison I think). However, I predict that once Kyrgios wins a slam (and it will be soon at this rate), fans will get behind him in a big way. He’s too good, too exciting, and plays in a way that’s too hard not to like. Incidentally, I think Rafa will have nearly half the crowd on Sunday. They love him in Miami.
    3. Props to those who picked another Roger-Rafa final. I missed half of it (Nadal), and I wasn’t totally sold on Roger (I had either him or Nick in the final). Well done.

    • Nah more selective bias.

      The fedfawn crowd were very disrespectful to Tomas in much the same way in the quarters when he was threatening to beat their false god.

  45. RT @carole_bouchard: Also one can’t wake up in 2017 about the RF/crowd situation when we had the 2015 US Open final mass hysteria. Djokovic still won that one.

    ? tell it to the fedfawns.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.




Skip to toolbar