Rafael Nadal and Fabio Fognini will be squaring off for the 11th time in their careers when they battle for a spot in the Miami Open final on Friday.
Nadal is leading the head-to-head series 7-3, including 3-1 on hard courts. That is not a particularly bad record by Fognini’s standards, however, and it has been even better for the Italian of late. He is an even 3-3 in their last six showdowns, a stretch that includes a shocking 3-6, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4 comeback in the third round of the 2015 U.S. Open. Nadal has since won two straight at Fognini’s expense; 7-5, 6-3 on the hard courts of Beijing in during the 2015 fall swing and 6-2, 7-6(1) on the red clay of Barcelona last season.
Another Nadal-Fognini showdown could not have been expected when the draw was released with the two veterans in different quarters, but Fognini is in the midst of his best–and certainly most surprising–Masters 1000 result. No matter that the world No. 40 won a grand total of two matches in his first four tournaments of the season; he is suddenly in fine form. Fognini upset Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the Indian Wells second round and is through to the Miami semis thanks to victories over Ryan Harrison, Joao Sousa, Jeremy Chardy, Donald Young, and Kei Nishikori.
“I (am) always feeling good (on hard courts),” Fognini assured. “Of course this one is the best (hard-court) result of my career at the moment…. At the moment I’m just happy. Of course it’s a big, big tournament for me. (I’m) feeling really good on court; happy about my performance. Of course the result, it’s positive. It’s like a dream, maybe.”
Nadal’s entire 2017 campaign has been stellar, albeit not quite dream-like simply because Roger Federer handed him a pair of defeats at the Australian Open (final) and Indian Wells Masters (fourth round). The sixth-ranked Spaniard is 18-2 against non-Federer opponents in 2017 and has advanced this fortnight by taking out Dudi Sela, Philipp Kohlschreiber, Nicolas Mahut, and Jack Sock. Only Kohlschreiber has managed to steal a set–which the German did in stunning 6-0 fashion only to go down 0-6, 6-2, 6-3.
Kohlschreiber and–to a lesser extent–Sock threw everything they had at Nadal and came up empty-handed. Fognini survived tough three-set tests against Sousa and Chardy, but the competition level from start to finish has been nothing like what the underdog will face on Friday. Nishikori was far less than 100 percent physically in their quarterfinal clash and even Harrison, less importantly, was massively hampered by a back problem in round one.
Fognini had never been this far in a such a big hard-court tournament and going one step farther at the expense of an in-form Nadal may be too much to ask.
Pick: Nadal in 2
[polldaddy poll=9710873]
who ya got?
Well..i will still go with Rafa…sure Fog has the game to hurt rafa..i’m pretty pretty he will go on court and blast a winner all over place..Rafa game style who loves to rally and give a ball to his opponent’s BH multiple times and more often than not will leave a big gap on one side of the court..and Fog will feast on this deliciously tomorrow..
But,hey..this is also not Rafa of 2015…u will not make a fool of rafa this time around Fog!!…So,Rafa in 2 or 3..C’Mon!!
Rafa should not allow Fog to get under his skin which happened the 3 times that he’s beaten Rafa. Just come out and show who is boss Rafa. Rafa’s standard was very high against Sock and whilst Fog can play games and hit winners from anywhere catching his opponent out, he doesn’t have the weapons that Sock has.
Guess, this is the best present Flavia can get from Fog especially when they are expecting a baby. I think Fog was partly lacky as well, but no doubt he played great to get here.
Rafa OTOH has those different versions of himself and everything but continuity in his current showing. Tends to perform brilliantly in one game and then disaster in the next. Fog will sure look to benefit on it. However, I think Rafa’s game has evolved during this Miami enough to deal with Fog. As long as Rafa can get some free points on serve, and hit with more power to ensure Fog doesn’t have time to position himself for those amazing DTL forehands, Rafa will be fine.
Hope Rafa wins in two! Hope Rafa treats us with some of those beautiful winners we’ve seen last night. Again no TB please ?
Vamos Champ!
Rafa will beat Fog in 2. His intensity has been improving with every match.
I thought he played well against Sock. His ROS was better, forehand aggressive and less prone to errors and backhand counterpunching was solid.
What I didn’t like is that rafa used more body serves again. Sure, it worked for him here but I would like to see him go for the lines more! He will need that if he is to win the title.
Fog was up against a 60-70% Nishi. Thing is, he can step is up against Rafa and hit through Rafa’s topspin. His forehands DTL are always a threat to Rafa as they are very flat and Fog takes them early.
I expect Rafa to win this in 2 sets.
Success breeds success. Rafa is peaking nicely but he will need a good serving day to go through to the SFs.
Rafa in 3
If you’re logic you will say Nadal over Fognini in 2. But tennis isn’t always about logic, especially when Fabio Fognini is playing.
I still pick Nadal to win but in 3 tight sets and i wouldn’t be that much surprised if Fabio makes the big upset. You could say he got lucky so far but he is here. And Fabio could beat anybody in a good day, like he already did 3 times against Rafa.
More over i think Rafa played too good against Sock. Let me explain. Everybody knows tennis is about good feeling and sensations or away about frustration. It’s obvious Rafa had great sensations against Sock. How will he react if he has less good ones against Fognini ? I think the actual Nadal could be a little frustrated, especially if Fog is in a good day.
That makes many “if” but thats what i expect from this match. I hope it will be a good one.
i dunno. Nadal in 3 is probably the odds-on pick.
This is a very different Rafa that Fog will be facing. He got his wins against a Rafa who was in a terrible slump. Fog is not going to have his way with Rafa. When Fog puts his mind to it, he is capable of playing quality tennis. But I don’t see Fog frustrating this Rafa.
I take nothing for granted at this point in the tournament. But I do think that Rafa will be ready.
Nny!Agree!!Fog certainly will have his hands full this time!I think we will going to see another racquet abuse tomorrow!!C’mon Rafa!!Wooohooo!!
Fog has little say in this.
Another Rafa vs Rafa.
Nothing new.
Couldn’t agree with you more, Hawks…. The fact that we even have to entertain the idea that Rafael Nadal, a 14-time major champion and one of the best ever, could potentially have another difficult match against Fabio Fognini, let alone be at risk of losing to Fabio Fognini for the fourth time in 2 years, to me shows that the 2015 Fognini thing was entirely mental…
Rafa handled him the past two times they played, so I’d like to think he’ll be just fine mentally, but who knows? I expect that Rafa will not mess around, given the golden opportunity he has to get to the Miami final and have a good shot at that elusive title! If Fed doesn’t make the final, I really believe that this title will have been handed for Rafa to take in the final. I don’t care if it’s Kyrgios or Zverev- Rafa will never let that good of an opportunity to finally win Miami slip away, imo…
Kyrgios though.
He saves his best for the best.
He absolutely does. But we haven’t seen him take out one of the really top guys in a final yet, so I’m just not totally sold on Nick being consistent enough for a big win like that. He’s always been capable of being the big guns, but we haven’t really seen him put together a run yet at a Masters or slam where makes a long run with wins against really big players. If he beats Fed in the semis, which I wouldn’t be surprised if he did here, it would be that much harder for me expect him to then turn around and beat Rafa in the final, at a tournament that Rafa will do anything to win. I’ve just been waiting for Nick to make a really big run, and he’s got the chance to do it here! But until he finally makes one of those runs, I will have to stay a skeptic in terms of his consistency and his drive. Once he does that, I’ll officially be all-in on Nick!
Kevin..Acapulco was also supposed to be handed over to Rafa when Querrey made it to the final..we all know what happened…
Rafa has to play to win..no 2 ways about it..nothing will be handed over to him.
I also agree with the thought that its so frustrating for us to not be sure of any match Rafa plays 2015 onwards. I don’t blame us, we have seen way too many shocking displays past 2.5 years.
Rafa in two
Nadal in three. Fognini will dictate at times but won’t be able to sustain it, and Rafa will outlast him.
Sadly I think Nadal loses to the Flamboyant Fabio.
bold call
Rafa in two losing no more than 7 games.
If the on-fire, hitting a hundred winners, staying-positive Fognini shows up, we could have us a good match. If the typical not-caring, a hundred unforced errors, negative Fognini shows up, Rafa will roll…
Keep your mind focused and sharp like a laser beam, stay confident, be strong and fight bravely, Rafa!
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C8Qax5IXkAEf2gd.jpg
I take nothing for granted these days. I still think this match is on Rafa’s racket. If he comes out serving well with his forehand firing, focused and aggressive, then he should be able to handle Fog. If Rafa has a sluggish start or doesn’t serve well or goes walkabout, then Fog will make a match if it.
Fog won’t be feeling any pressure, since he was not expected to be here. He can come out and play freely, going for his shots. Rafa has to play freely also. He has to play his game, not let Fog distract him with any drama and just do his thing. Rafa knows how to beat Fog. He only lost to him when he was in a slump.
Exactly NNY, and, let’s not forget, that was during the worst period of his joking problema.
I think this was the right thing to say, pre-match. And Rafa came out laser-sharp. His best play of the whole match might have been in the first game and and a half. But Fabio did not come out playing freely, going for his shots. Not at all, from what I could see. Why not? He is an enigma, up there with Monfils.
Great start for rafa!!!Wooohoo!!
YES!!!Break!!!
Fog looks horrible right now. Rafa taking full advantage with some big serves and forehands.
YES!!!1st set rafa!!!Make it 2…
Gosh!Rafa should kill this match much sooner!Fog is hurting atm and can’t do much..but rafa still with his usual rallying style and dragged this match longer unnecessarily…
Exactly! Rafa is just waiting for errors to happen, not going for winners. He has wasted so many BP chances, playing one dimensional tennis, very poor by his standard for a SF match. Had he taken one of those BPs, he would be in the locker room already.
Agree Lucky!!Why he’s not keen to make winners,i never understand!He should save his energy!..He’s also very conservative when make return of serves…other players will try to make winners if the chances arrived but not rafa…it’s so frustrating to see it sometimes..
I guess he doesn’t want to take too much risk in such blustery conditions. Anyway a win is a win, don’t care how ugly or how pretty it is.
He serves well enough not to lose serve; hope he does better on Sunday and conditions not as blustery.
Strange pattern for Rafa at Miami, he makes a final every three years. I really hope he wins the final this time, please don’t let us wait another three years!
he’s the underdog against either one in the final. But also has a fine chance against either.
He was just waiting because he knew Fabio would eventually break himself like he did. 🙂
Yeah kevin but that’s also means he has to waste the energy that he shouldn’t wasted!especially when playing under the hot sun!And he still has a business with Roger or Nicky in the final…
With final 48 hours away, that won’t matter
Happy for Rafa, a win is a win 😉 ….
I Cant see NK beating the two greatest players ever back to back, id be mighty surprised if he did ….
A letdown of a match. Fabio either hurt, on the take, or just being himself. (When he started to bring it a bit in the 2nd set I really did wonder if he might be on the take). The contrast between his play today and in the Nishi match was striking. Again, Nadal was solid, especially in his service games. His BH was strong; especially when pulled wide, he hit some great shots. But his FH is still inconsistent compared to what it’s been in the past. The wind made things very tricky, and he played smart, given Fabio’s play. Still, the main thing I take away from his last two matches is this: if the opponent plays badly, Nadal will win. His toughest opponent in the last three matches has probably been Nicholas Mahut.
Like Stan against Fed.
#ShakeAndBake
I agree with you, Alison. We know Nick is a great tennis player. But we have yet to see go on a big run, at a big tournament, where he beats big players in the semis and/or finals. So until he is able to show us he can do that, I’m still going to assume that he is not mentally, or perhaps even physically, fit enough to not fold in a big final. We’ve seen him beat all the best players in the world, but he never goes anywhere after beating them… He’s got a great opportunity here to show is that he’s mature enough to be “next level”. Would he take it if he made it to the final? I will remain skeptical until I see him do it.
Oh man… How crazy would it be if we got yet ANOTHER Fedal already?? And a final at that! It’s so funny to think now that before the AO final, all the analysts were saying we would be lucky if we ever got to see them play each other again…
Not yet, Kevin. If Kyrgios serves as well as he did yesterday I think he will win. I’m not sure about his knee, however. And even though from one perspective it seemed like a Fedal final was not such an unlikely thing, given their records this year, both players have had more than a bit of luck to get this far. Nadal, because his opponents have played well beneath their potential (and some stronger ones like Kei and Raonic were injured); Roger, because he should have lost yesterday and was very lucky to win (continuing his lucky streak; see IW walkover against Nick).
I’m still not sold on either of them as top contenders for the rest of the year, simply because of age and wear and tear (at Roger’s age the decline could come at any time; he really is playing on borrowed time in terms of top-flight tennis). If Roger and Rafa were to meet on Sunday, it still would not be a crazy thing to say that this may be the last final we see them in together. I hope I’m wrong.
Let’s hope! Tignor picked NK to win so that’s in Fed’s favor!
If Roger can play like he did in the first set against Berdych, or against Nadal at IW, then I give him the edge, but only slightly if Nick is healthy and focused. I will be very surprised if there are no tiebreakers.
Get really sick of hearing that Nadal only wins because his opponents played crap, its all his fans seem to hear lately 🙁 ….
I didn’t say that he won only because they played crap. But they did play crap. The unforced errors tell that story clearly (if many of those UE are better classified as forced, then that’s a different story, but I didn’t see that). The best thing to say about Nadal’s last two matches might be that he hasn’t really been tested in them.
Well Alison, consider those matches as microcosms of what Fed had for every match other than vs Rafa during the Weak Era.
Joe doesn’t realize that many unforced errors are indirectly forced because the opponent is pressured to play with less margin.
It just seems to be all us fans hear lately, in every single match he plays these days ….
Yeah but only if you respect or give any weight to those opinions.
I just find fedfawns hilarious.
Im not bringing him into this HE, im talking about Rafa, im not making everything about what Federer does or doesnt do ….
No no of course not.
I am.
That’s allowed, isn’t it?
HE you can if you like, i wont and thats my perogative, sick of the comparisons all the time ….
Did I suggest otherwise?
I am getting a bit fed up myself with hearing that Rafa won because his opponents played badly. Rafa has served quite well in his last few matches and that is entirely on him.
One might say that Rafa avoided a double break against Sock when he missed that volley. But that is the sport. You have to make that shot if you want to beat Rafa. Then Rafa capitalized by breaking. That wasn’t luck.
Also, late in the second set Rafa was down 0-30 on his serve. He had to fight to hold his serve and luck was not a factor!
The truth is that Rafa won his match against Sock in much the same way he had won throughout his career. He did not let Sock play his game. Then when Sock did play much better in the second set, Rafa got a lucky break and then took advantage by breaking Sock. He blunted Sock’s momentum. Then he held his serve when he was down on his serve. He did not let Sock back in the match!
I call that a well played match! Way to go, Rafa!
When fedfawns say that, it just means that Rafa is heading in the right direction.
Let’s hope that they continue “playing badly”.
Hawks,
When you fedfawn, are you referring to anyone who is a fan of Roger Federer? Judging by our past discussions about biases, I’m pretty sure you don’t think that any fan of Roger Federer is automatically a “fedfawn”… But if you were, it would rather Augusta-like/hypocritical. 🙂
I only ask because, while I know that the world is full of “fedfawns”, “rafatards”, and whatever they call Nole fanatics these days (although I personally never use these names myself), I also know that there are many fans of these players who are respectful, respectable fans. In fact, I personally believe that the majority of fans of each player are good fans, and that the bad ones stand out the most because they’re the ones trolling on social media.
My favorite thing is to go to a highlight video on YouTube featuring any combination of those three players and look at the comment section… It will usually start with something like, “Federer is a crybaby and sucks at tennis!” And then, “Nadull is a piece of shit and is on steroids!” “Fedfans are totally the worst!” “Omg, Rafa fans are supremely the most unbearable!” “No Fedfans are the worst!” “No Rafans are the worst!” And back and forth and back and forth it goes….. Until finally the Fed trolls and Rafa trolls suddenly realize, “Wait! Oh my god, Djokovic fans are the absolutely worst, undoubtably!!” And then the Fed/Rafa trolls just talk shit about Nole for a while, until inevitably the Nole fans see this and then, of course, have to chime in about how Rafa and Fed suck and that they have been “Nole’s bitches” recently. And blah blah blah blah….. And all I can think is, do these fans of each respective player ACTUALLY THINK that they are somehow not as bad as the other players’ fans?? It blows my mind. It used to annoy the shit out of me, but now it typically just makes me laugh because these people truly do think that they are somehow different than the other fans. ?
Anyway, I like to think that those people are just a minority of Big 4 fans. Generally speaking, I don’t often meet too many people who run their mouth like that in person… Sure, there are plenty of them who are in the crowd at matches, but it’s definitely not all of them.
HE fair enough, excuse my irritation ….
NNY Thankyou ….
Rafa’s not played extraordinary tennis but he has played good tennis. Guys, he has made the finals of 3/4 hard court events in this year!! He was struggling to win matches in 2015 ! He has made great progress. Now, if he can go one step better here, he will enter the clay season like a tsunami!
VR Right on ….
So we’ll have another Roger v/s Rafa ….. This take on their mindsets would make an interesting read at this point http://www.138mph.com/decoding-the-big-three-murray-part-iii/