Miami final preview and pick: Djokovic vs. Murray

Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray will be squaring off for the 26th time in their careers when they battle for the Miami Open title on Sunday afternoon.

Djokovic leads the head-to-head series 17-8, including 15-6 on hard courts. The top-ranked Serb has won six in a row at Murray’s expense since losing the 2013 Wimbledon final. They most recently faced each other two weeks ago in the Indian Wells semifinals, where Djokovic cruised 6-2, 6-3.
Djoker 3
“Even though it’s a straight set victory, I still had to earn it,” the eight-time Grand Slam champion reflected after defeating Murray in the desert. “I thought that he didn’t play close to his highest level. He made a lot of unforced errors, especially from the forehand side. Low percentage of first serves in. That allowed me to obviously step in and be aggressive.”

Murray has picked up the pace in Miami, admitting himself that he is playing far better now than he was in Indian Wells. The fourth-ranked Scot needed three sets to beat both Kevin Anderson and Dominic Thiem, but those wins were preceded by blowouts of Donald Young and Santiago Giraldo. Murray next had no trouble disposing of Tomas Berdych 6-4, 6-4 on Friday.

Murray

Djokovic also raised his level when it mattered most. After struggling on multiple occasions through a path featuring opponents Martin Klizan, Steve Darcis, Alexandr Dolgopolov, and David Ferrer, the No. 1 seed turned in his best performance of the fortnight to subdue John Isner 7-6(3), 6-2.

Anything close to that level should be enough for Djokovic on Sunday, because Murray has been mostly hopeless in this matchup of late–especially since winning the second set of their recent Australian Open final. One victory shy of the Indian Wells-Miami double, Djokovic undoubtedly has one more virtuoso performance left in the tank before a much-deserved rest in between hard courts and clay.

Pick: Djokovic in 2 losing 9 games or fewer

[polldaddy poll=8779599]

57 Comments on Miami final preview and pick: Djokovic vs. Murray

  1. Yesterday I voted for the same…djoko losing less than nine games… In fact I foresee another one-sided boring match…

  2. ^interesting stat there, Alex.

    Finally Muzz playing some positive tennis against Novak. Taking the ball early and doing some damage with the forehand

  3. Poor game to get broken but he has played two good points and has 0-30 again on djokovic’s serve…..If Muzz can keep this up, this will be good

  4. Great movement by Murray! Djokovic defending like a wall as usual. This is turning out to be a good match … WOAH awesome backhand slice down the line passing shot winner by Muzz!

  5. Muzz may be 4-4, but problem is … NOBODY beats Nole with 54% first serves in … especially not someone with a second serve like Muzz … ESPECIALLY not when Nole is firing in nearly 70% of first serves.
    Bottom line is, if muzz gets is first serve to over 60% he is a great chance of winning this … if he doesn’t he will definitely lose. Simple.
    So I now have to predict muzz will improve his first serve %age 🙂

  6. Muzz not doing enough on his first serves. He does not want Novak to have looks on his second serves on important points…

  7. well that is a problem…he is neither doing enough damage on first serves nor is he keeping a high percentage of first serves!!

    I agree he got to improve his first serve or he will lose

  8. was he waiting for me to criticize? LOL…he hands out a couple of good first serves and scores his first ace .. good hold. 5-5

  9. I am surprised at high number of UEs..for me this match is just the same as any other match of these two…Nole doesn’t need to do anything special..Andy is so good in self-destroying…I’d love to see them playing three long and demanding sets but it is unlikely…Andy will just give up the fight as usual…

  10. LOL brilliant from Andy! he takes the set 6-4…. he did so well to exploit djokovic’s weak high volleys and overheads! and what a positive way to end the set! Scorching return winner. Murray outsmarted novak in this set.

    Murray gets to serve first ,which is surely an advantage for him. GAME ON

  11. Really impressed with Murray’s backhand today. It has done more damage than djokovic’s backhand. However, he has made blunders time and time again

  12. Yep, muzz doing another Oz. After all the hard work to fight his way back level in set 2, he goes mental walkabouts again in set 3. 47% first serves in says it all:-(

  13. So frustrating that muzz can’t concentrate for even a whole 3-set match. He can get away with it against lesser mortals, but never against nole.

  14. Murray absolutely kills himself every time he plays Rafa then hands it to Nole on a plate. Pathetic. This time he’s got no excuses.

    • so true…just for a moment I thought Andy would prove me wrong…but no…losing like this is just plain stupid…

  15. Muzz just ran out of steam in the 3rd set just like in the Oz final.
    It’s tough to compete with Nole ATM in a physical battle for long duration! Nole is just too good. He may appear frustrated at times, but recovers on the throw of a dice. He has become a mental beast. Just look at Nole’s decider set performances these year.

    • Run out of the steam?! In the three set match?! How does he expect to be competitive or place a danger to any of the top ten in a five- set scenario…that is such a cheap excuse…no, Murray just gave up…it was a mental thing, not physical…and Nole just keeps on wining matches that he almost lost because players, all except Fed, do not believe they could beat him…Andy had his chances and he blew it…

      • I agree about there being no excuses in a best two out of three set match. This wasn’t a slam final. Andy should not be tired. I think that it was definitely mental on his part. Andy is fit and well conditioned now. This is not last year when he struggled after returning from the back injury.

        This is a match that Andy could have won. In fact, he could have won the first set. In the crucial moments, Andy doesn’t have it. Novak is able to hit the big shots when it counts while Andy just crumbles.

        I believe that ESPN put up a stat before the final that Novak has won their last six matches. So Andy is on a losing streak and now it’s 7 straight losses and counting.

      • Totally agree with @nats, Muzza is a mental midget where Novak is concerned. The game plan for Novak when playing Muzza is simple: stay with him in the rallies early on in the match, at the first signs of frustration slowly turn the screw with a flash of brilliance here or there and watch Muzza unravel mentally.

        Simple.

      • @nats
        “and Nole just keeps on wining matches that he almost lost because players, all except Fed, do not believe they could beat him…”

        Isn’t that the same reason for the success that Fed and Rafa enjoyed on tour.

      • It’s not just about a 3 set match. The kind of punishing rallies that these 2 play even for 2 sets (like the Oz Open, yesterday’s match) makes up for almost 3.5-4 sets of play. He may not have any physical issues, but has he regained his strength and stamina.
        And, I think mental energy is almost as important as the physical aspect. Steaming out of any of the 2 has a deteriorating outcome on the performance.
        Also, look at the kind of level Muzz had to play to win those points especially in the 1st set. Sustaining such high level of play over a long period is almost impossible.
        So I don’t think it’s much about his belief. It’s his game that needs to be more hardened and consistent.
        The way he is playing right now, Fed and Nole will beat him most of the time they meet.

  16. I thought considering the fact that Rafa has the three clay masters sewed up year after year the masters record is something that nobody would be able to take from him but seeing Nole’s performance its a lock that he would break it soon considering 6 of the 9 masters are played on hards and he seems to do well at each and every one of them. And not to mention he is no slouch on clay. If some serious competitor does not come soon, he is going to obliterate the masters record.

  17. This is why I will NEVER root for Novak. I don’t care if he is #1, plays best tennis in the world, whatever. He is a rude, entitled, class-less ignoramus:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTfJKv4qI5U

    Sure, his fans will say he was not yelling at the ball boy, he was yelling at his camp, blah, blah, blah. So, that towel snatch……….it was directed at his camp? Why was he not given a code-violation straight-up? He makes me want to puke.

    Congratulations Novak. Once again, you won in every department.

    • his words in Serbian were: “you can all suck my d… ” and he repeated it several times…to say that it was not directed at the crowd but at his own box is ridiculous…Novak should have gotten a code violation right away…and he scared the hell out of these ball boys…primitive and rude…and he should be the role model for youngsters?! yeah…sure…

      • Oh no, *groan*. Is that what he said in Serbian? Isn’t that what he said in Madrid some time back? Way too much information about your sub-conscious, Novak…………tsk, tsk.

  18. RT @BackSwings: “Just the way Djokovic violently snatched the towel from the ball kid was code-violation worthy. No need. Calm down, Novak.”

  19. abhirf says:
    April 6, 2015 at 8:32 am

    what you are saying makes sense if Murray lost closely in the third set…but to win zero games in the third is inexplicable…that is just embarrassing and not worth a player who is occupying the third place on tour…he can run out of steam and lose but to simply give up is something I can not understand…he won the second set and had the momentum while Novak was nervous and was not playing his best…and yet Andy failed to capitalize…I think he is not allowed to have excuses this time…No3 and in the finals…no way man…that’s really embarrassing…

    • If you have seen Nole’s matches this year, he has made it a habit of striking early in the decisive set irrespective of the outcome of the previous set.
      Andy must have thought, he has the momentum with him and Nole appeared all flustered out there at the end of 2nd set, but he regrouped himself during the break and came out firing.
      And it was not that Muzz didn’t gave a fight. If I remember correctly, he saved 5-6 BP’s in the 3rd game of the 3rd set. He even took Nole to deuce to win that last game. It’s just the fact that, once Nole gains the upper hand, he starts swinging with a free mind especially on his returns and that’s when he is really dangerous. In that kind of mood, he didn’t spared Fed’s serves at IW, then what are the chances that Muzz’s serves will have a better fortune.

      • I did not think Nole was at all that superior in this match…he was making way too many UEs for his own standards…still the outcome looks somewhat sad for Andy…you think Andy had nothing left and I think he just gave up…and just wait until he faces Rafa…you will see him fighting like it is his last…

      • I have to agree with natashao regarding the analysis of Murray’s loss to Novak. It’s not like Novak is playing lights out tennis all the time. He’s had his ups and downs in his matches in Miami. He was two games from losing the match to Dolgo. He’s not impenetrable at all. Murray just needs to get more mentally tough, because there was a time when he could more than hang with Novak. But the last time he beat him was the 2012 Wimbledon final. Last year could be excused because Murray was returning from back surgery. His ranking dropped quite a bit. But this year he is playing much better. He’s getting there.

        What I see in Novak is the ability to raise his level of play in the crucial moments of a match. That’s what Rafa has done to him in recent years, as he has bested him especially in the slams. Their matches are always close and Rafa has said that he has to be at his best physically and mentally to beat Novak. This is the quality that Rafa is lacking right now, the ability to find his best in the tough moments when the match is on the line.

        Both guys were making a lot of UE’s. That first set could have gone either way, with both guys trading breaks of serve. Andy didn’t have it mentally in the third set. But I think he will get there. Look at Rafa. He never gave up, even after seven straight losses to Novak. Never say never in tennis.

  20. Oh, they all tend to fight. If they beat Nadal where they seemingly fold against Djokovic, it’s because the former tour leader is not up to the job. He is ranked #22 since the French Open ten months ago. We’ll know in the weeks ahead if “clay can’t come too soon” or if it came too darned soon for him. He is now ranked outside the Top 4, though I expect he may overtake Nishikori if not Murray in the run-up to the French Open.

    Anyway, congrats to Djokovic and Murray, perhaps the obvious default picks for the Miami final, given Federer’s absence and the Nadal near-collapse not to mention the never-ending wait for the coming generation to get its act together (except perhaps when they play Nadal). We’ll see if the Scot stays ahead of His Spanish nemesis between now and Paris. Goodness knows he has a minor diversion in the coming week. Hmm, come to think of it, it’s interesting to see that Murray – who has earned sideways glances over the years for seemingly shadowing Djokovic’s life and career choices – has chosen to tie the knot on the Federers’ sixth anniversary.

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