Metz and St. Petersburg previews and predictions

The fall swing is getting underway this week in Metz and St. Petersburg, which boast some respectable fields by 250-point standards. Kei Nishikori and Stefanos Tsitsipas are leading the way in Metz, while Dominic Thiem begins the home stretch of his bid for a Nitto ATP Finals spot as the No. 1 seed in St. Petersburg.

Moselle Open

Where: Metz, France
Surface: Indoor hard
Points: 250
Prize money: 501,345 Euros

Top seed: Kei Nishikori
Defending champion: Peter Gojowyczk

Draw analysis: Defending Davis Cup champion France booked a return trip the final this past weekend and some of its standouts will be taking the court in Metz. Lucas Pouille has a first-round bye as the No. 3 seed, Benoit Paire is in the same section of the bracket, and countrymen Richard Gasquet, Adrian Mannarino, Gilles Simon, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga are also on board. Tsonga has been sidelined by injuries since early February and he is not being greeted with a favorable draw. Up first for the 33-year-old is 2017 Metz champ Peter Gojowyczk and the winner has to go up against Nishikori in round two. Nishikori is on a collision course for the quarterfinals with U.S. Open fourth-round performer Nikoloz Basilashvili.

In the bottom half of the draw, Tsitsipas and Gasquet are owners of the opening-round byes. Both have seemingly favorable paths through the bracket, although Tsitsipas could have a difficult quarterfinal on his hands against Mannarino. Gasquet will most likely run into compatriot Gilles Simon in the last eight, as the unseeded Simon’s nearest seeded is a struggling Filip Krajinovic.

First-round upset alert: Mischa Zverev over (8) Philipp Kohlschreiber. Kohlschreiber is coming off a fourth-round performance at the U.S. Open, but upsetting Alexander Zverev at a slam is not exactly an unprecedented feat and the veteran German got blown out by Nishikori in his next match. He had been in dreadful form prior to that result in New York. Zverev is dangerous on this surface and he is 1-0 lifetime against Kohlschreiber on indoor hard courts.

Hot: Kei Nishikori, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Nikoloz Basilashvili

Cold: Filip Krajinovic, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Jiri Vesely, Ricardas Berankis

Semifinal predictions: Kei Nishikori over Lucas Pouille and Adrian Mannarino over Gilles Simon

Final: Nishikori over Mannarino

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St. Petersburg Open

Where: St. Petersburg, Russia
Surface: Indoor hard
Points: 250
Prize money: $1,175,190

Top seed: Dominic Thiem
Defending champion: Damir Dzumhur

Draw analysis: Thiem is bouncing back and forth from outdoor hard courts (U.S. Open Series), to clay (Davis Cup), to indoor hard courts. It is rarely a good thing when the Austrian is away from clay, on which he finished runner-up to Rafael Nadal at the French Open and helped his country defeat Australia in a recent Davis Cup playoff tie. Both the surface and his draw in St. Petersburg may hinder Thiem, who finds himself in a top quarter along with Daniil Medvedev, Joao Sousa, and Andrey Rublev. The second section of the bracket is thoroughly underwhelming, as Marco Cecchinato has never won a hard-court match in his entire career and fellow seed Roberto Bautista Agut has been struggling with physical problems.

On the other side, a blockbuster second-rounder between Karen Khachanov and Stan Wawrinka could be in the cards. Khachanov lost to Nadal in an entertaining third-round at the U.S. Open and Wawrinka, who opens in Metz with Aljaz Bedene, ousted Grigor Dimitrov in round one at Flushing Meadows. The bottom quarter of the Metz bracket features Fabio Fognini, Denis Shapovalov, and Martin Klizan.

First-round upset alert: Joao Sousa over (8) Daniil Medvedev. Sousa won their only previous encounter earlier this season on the red clay of Estoril. It is the Russian who has home-court advantage this time around, but Sousa has remained in fine form since triumphing on home soil. He reached the fourth round of a major for the first time in his career before succumbing to eventual U.S. Open champion Novak Djokovic. Sousa is underrated on this surface, with two of this three career titles coming on indoor hard courts.

Hot: Karen Khachanov, Denis Shapovalov, Daniil Medvedev, Joao Sousa

Cold: Roberto Bautista Agut, Andrey Rublev, Mikhail Youzhny

Semifinal predictions: Joao Sousa over Roberto Bautista Agut and Karen Khachanov over Denis Shapovalov

Final: Khachanov over Sousa

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