The Grand Slam season is over and now it’s time for the fall swing—much of it indoors—to pave the way toward London. Among the World Tour Finals contenders is Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who missed the entire hard-court summer and is finally returning to action for the first time since Wimbledon. Tsonga, once again plagued by knee problems, headlines this week’s event in Metz as the top seed. In St. Petersburg, a wide-open field includes Mikhail Youzhny, Janko Tipsarevic, and Fernando Verdasco.
Moselle Open
Where: Metz, France
Surface: Indoor hard
Prize money: 410,200 Euros
Points: 250
Top seed: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
2010 champion: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
Draw analysis: If Tsonga advances at this tournament, he may be in store for more than a few matches against fellow Frenchman. The world No. 8’s opener will likely come against Edouard Roger-Vasselin and he is on course for a quarterfinal meeting with Jeremy Chardy. However, there is not a single Frenchman in the second quarter of the draw, so no all-French semifinal showdown will be in the cards—at least not in the top half. Philipp Kohlschreiber is playing by far the best tennis of anyone in that section, so he should be able to coast into a weekend date with either Tsonga, Chardy, or Roger-Vasselin.
On paper there is also a good chance of a Frenchman reaching the title match out of the bottom half. Gilles Simon is seeded second, Benoit Paire is the No. 5 seed, and Nicolas Mahut, Paul-Henri Mathieu, Kenny De Schepper, and Albano Olivetti are also on that side of the bracket. However, neither Simon nor Paire is playing well at the moment and both have been dealing with injuries. Simon could face either Sam Querrey or Ivo Karlovic in the quarterfinals while Paire has a tough opener on his hands against Benjamin Becker.
First-round upset alert: Benjamin Becker over (5) Benoit Paire. Paire seems content to live vicariously through good friend Stanislas Wawrinka, whose stellar 2013 season reached a zenith with a semifinal performance at the U.S. Open. As for Paire, he is 1-4 in his last five matches and a bad back has slowed what was once a promising year. Becker is 50 spots below his opponent in the rankings, but he successfully qualified in both Montreal and Cincinnati before advancing a round at the U.S. Open. The German already has an indoor week under his belt, having reached the quarters of a Challenger event in Luxembourg last week.
Hot: Philipp Kohlschreiber, Ivo Karlovic
Cold: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Gilles Simon, Benoit Paire, Paul-Henri Mathieu, Igor Sijsling
Semifinal predictions: Philipp Kohlschreiber over Jeremy Chardy and Ivo Karlovic over Nicolas Mahut
Final: Kohlschreiber over Karlovic
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St. Petersburg Open
Where: St. Petersburg, Russia
Surface: Indoor hard
Points: 250
Prize money: 455,775 Euros
Top seed: Fabio Fognini
2012 champion: Martin Klizan (not playing)
Draw analysis: No, that is not a misprint at the top of the draw: Fabio Fognini is the No. 1 seed at an indoor hard-court tournament. Fognini actually made a surprise run to the St. Petersburg final last year, but a repeat performance does not appear to be in the making. After catching fire on clay after Wimbledon, Fognini was a disaster on the summer hard courts. With a slumping Lukas Rosol in the same quarter of the bracket, at least one semifinal spot is completely up for grabs. Albert Ramos, Ricardas Berankis, and Victor Hanescu should contend for it. A much more difficult second section features Tipsarevic, Ernests Gulbis, Adrian Mannarino, and Evgeny Donskoy.
The bottom half is deeper all across the board, although Youzhny has a favorable path until the quarterfinals. Coming off a quarterfinal finish at the U.S. Open, the second-seeded Russian should cruise through two rounds before facing Denis Istomin—who reached the fourth round in New York. Potential semifinal opponents for either Youzhny or Istomin are Verdasco, Dmitry Tursunov, and Marcos Baghdatis. Tursunov and Baghdatis are set to square off in the most enticing of all first-round matchups.
First-round upset alert: Ricardas Berankis over (7) Lukas Rosol. Aside from Rosol’s first career ATP title, 2013 has been a borderline disaster for both players. Since triumphing on the clay courts of Bucharest in April, Rosol is a horrendous 2-13 at the ATP level. He has not won a single match since the Queen’s Club first round back in early June. Berankis registers all the way down at No. 111 in the world. The 23-year-old Lithuanian at least reached a quarterfinal in Winston-Salem last month and a Challenger quarterfinal last week, so he should be playing with slightly more confidence than his seemingly lost opponent.
Hot: Mikhail Youzhny, Dmitry Tursunov, Denis Istomin, Adrian Mannarino
Cold: Lukas Rosol, Ricardas Berankis, Sergiy Stakhovsky, Horacio Zeballos, Andrey Golubev
Semifinals: Janko Tipsarevic over Ricardas Berankis and Mikhail Youzhny over Dmitry Tursunov
Final: Youzhny over Tipsarevic
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Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!
Metz not one of your best set of predictions Ricky!
Two of your ‘cold’ players have reached the SFs.
I pick Tsonga and Simon for the final with J-WT prevailing. He is sprinting to get to London – he usually plays some of his best tennis on indoor HCs – and Simon could still be suffering from broken nights’ sleep after the arrival of his second son.
BTW: I see ‘Approach Shots’ is now being syndicated 😉
cold section has nothing to do with my predictions. cold just is what it is.
Get it. Apologies. I retract my comment.