Spots in the fourth round will be at stake when Stefanos Tsitsipas and Taylor Fritz continue their Madrid campaigns on Monday. They are going up against accomplished clay-courters in Sebastian Baez and Cristian Garin, respectively.
(25) Sebastian Baez vs. (4) Stefanos Tsitsipas
Tsitsipas had a tough draw in his opening match at the Mutua Madrid Open, but the No. 4 seed managed to get past Dominic Thiem 3-6, 6-1, 7-6(5). With that the fifth-ranked Greek still has a chance to defend his semifinal points from last year and make a return trip to the Madrid final for the first time since 2019 (lost to Novak Djokovic). Tsitsipas should have a good chance to do it, as he is one of the best clay-court players in the world and started to regain his form with a runner-up performance in Barcelona (lost to Carlos Alcaraz).
Up next for Tsitsipas during third-round action on Monday is Baez, who lost their only previous meeting 7-6(1), 6-7(5), 6-3, 6-4 at the 2022 Australian Open. The 22-year-old Argentine is generally better on clay, but so far this season he is just 7-6 at seven clay-court tournaments other than Cordoba (where he captured his second ATP title). Quick conditions in Madrid won’t help Baez, either, so this will likely be one-way traffic for Tsitsipas.
Pick: Tsitsipas in 2
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(8) Taylor Fritz vs. Cristian Garin
Fritz and Garin will also be going head-to-head for the second time in their careers. Their only previous encounter came during last year’s clay-court swing in Houston, where Garin got the job done 6-2, 6-7(5), 6-3. However, much faster conditions in Madrid and–even more importantly–much more consistency in his game at this point in time could turn the tide in Fritz’s favor. The American is 26-8 this season, is up to 10th in the rankings, and just reached back-to-back clay-court semifinals in Monte-Carlo and Munich. He has advanced to at least the quarters of seven consecutive tournaments.
It has already been a productive fortnight for Garin, who did not get the benefit of a bye as an unseeded player but has defeated Marc-Andrea Huesler and Miomir Kecmanovic–the latter in three tight sets. The 73rd-ranked Chilean has been in solid but unspectacular form, with recent quarterfinal efforts in Houston and Munich. Garin is always a tough out on the red stuff, but in these conditions a red-hot Fritz will likely have the edge.
Pick: Fritz in 3
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I think Garin could do this in three. He used to altitude in Chile .I have Fritz in my bracket though .