Madrid R3 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Goffin, Auger-Aliassime vs. Sinner

Rafael Nadal Australian Open
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Madrid crowd favorite Rafael Nadal will be in third-round action on Thursday against David Goffin. Youngsters Jannik Sinner and Felix Auger-Aliassime are also squaring off as they aim for a place in the quarterfinals.

(3) Rafael Nadal vs. (Q) David Goffin

As he does with most opponents, Rafael Nadal owns the head-to-head against David Goffin on clay. Both of the Belgian’s win over the 21-time Grand Slam champion have come on hard courts. The four clay encounters have all gone Nadal’s way.

While neither man is particularly known for pot-stirring, their first meeting was mired in controversy. It was at the 2017 Monte-Carlo Masters. Goffin was seeded 10th and ran into Nadal in the semifinals. The Belgian was serving up a break in the first set when a close shot of Nadal’s was ruled good by chair umpire Cedric Mourier. The Hawkeye system showed that the ball was just out, but Hawkeye wasn’t used officially in Monte-Carlo at that time. They replayed the point, which Nadal won and eventually broke back. Goffin won just one more game the entire match and refused to shake hands with Mourier.

This time around Goffin is ranked 60th in the world and Nadal comes into the tournament off a six-week injury layoff due to a cracked rib he sustained at the Indian Wells Masters. The Spaniard, adored by the home crowd in Madrid, was in fine form in his second-round match on Wednesday. He dispatched an in-form Miomir Kecmanovic 6-1, 7-6(4). The No. 3 seed had a few moments of rust in the second set, as he dumped served twice after earning service breaks.

Nadal is capable–perhaps more than any other ATP player in history–of returning from an injury and immediately finding his form well enough to win. Goffin shouldn’t count on his opponent’s rust to get him through this one.

Cheryl pick: Nadal in 2

Ricky pick: Nadal in 2

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How many games will Goffin win?

(8) Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. (10) Jannik Sinner

This will be first career meeting between Felix Auger-Aliassime and Jannik Sinner. It feels like this match should have happened some time ago, because they are two of the most promising of the next generation of players. Unfortunately for tennis fans, they won’t meet while they are both in good form.

Jannik Sinner

Sinner, one of Italy’s best and brightest, was riding a 19-4 record for 2022 coming into Madrid. He hasn’t won any events in 2022, but the No. 10 seed finds himself in the business end of tournaments most of the time. Conversely, Auger-Aliassime has won an event but has been on a miserable run since February.

The Canadian scored a nice win over Cristian Garin in the second round on Wednesday and Sinner did the same over Alex de Minaur, but their respective form suggests that this one is going to go to Sinner in a fairly straightforward fashion.

Cheryl pick: Sinner in 2

Ricky pick: Sinner in 2

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WWW: Auger-Aliassime vs. Sinner?

63 Comments on Madrid R3 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Goffin, Auger-Aliassime vs. Sinner

  1. I remember that incident in the Monte Carlo semi between Goffin and Nadal. The shot in question was Nadal’s on his far baseline. The ball was OUT as Goffin claimed. The linesman had called it out, but chair umpire Mourier, for reasons best known to himself, leaped down, examined the WRONG MARK, and ruled it IN. Goffin had a conniption, but nothing could be done. One of the commentators, Mary Carillo, who is in the Hall of Fame for commentating, (which has always been a mystery to me) and was a huge fan of the player she called the “Wee Wizard” declared that Nadal should have given the point to Goffin! Asked about it in his presser, Nadal gave the questioner a funny look and said he could not call the far baseline. (Maybe John Isner gets a clear view of the far baseling but no way Nadal can see it from the back of the court!) Goffin, asked about it in his presser, gave his guy the same funny look and said “Nadal? He couldn’t do anything! He’s one of the most fair.” It was a classic case of examining the wrong mark. Sad for Goffin who completely lost his concentration and what had been a competitive first set and went on to lose a very one sided second set.

  2. That bad call was in Madrid not Monte Carlo and Rafa won the match 76 62.

    Shakes head! I can’t believe people are still going on about that bad call. As Rafa said in his PM press conference then, one bad call so early in a match doesn’t decide the outcome of the match. Considering there is a bad call in every other match why can’t people let this one go? It was 5 years ago. Rafa has suffered his fair share of bad calls in his career and no one ever brings them up.

    Re Goffin’s 2 wins over Rafa, one of which was at the 02, I was court side and it was in the 1st RR when Rafa only turned up to fulfil his obligation and pulled out of the WTF immediately after the match.

    At the ATP Cup, Spain played their first leg in Perth then travelled to Sydney for the next leg, jet lagged with no rest, to play Belgium. Rafa complained about the scheduling.

    It would help to give a proper perspective of events to get the full picture.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/tennis/4907939/rafael-nadal-david-goffin-atp-finals-injured/

    RAGING BULL Rafa Nadal fought on through the pain but enough was enough: he is out of the ATP Finals.

    Minutes after David Goffin landed the final blow in an agonising 7-6 6-7 6-4 defeat, the injured Spaniard withdrew from the end-of-season showdown.

    ATP CUP

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/jan/11/radael-nadal-criticises-atp-cup-scheduling-before-australia-semi-final

    “David played a great match. Better than me. I was suffering a lot physically today with high humidity,” he said. “But at the same time it is fair to say that we are in the worst position to play the final eight, because we came from Perth”.

    A visibly agitated Rafael Nadal has delivered a backhander to ATP Cup organisers, complaining about scheduling after he suffered a rare singles defeat and Spain just scraped through to play Australia in the semi-finals.

    The world No 1 was not at his best on Friday – and into the early hours of Saturday, losing in straight sets to Belgium’s David Goffin and going down a set in the deciding doubles rubber.

    “With had three hours’ time zone difference and different weather conditions, to play against a team that’s been here for the last ten days, and we are the only team to come from Perth playing until the last day in Perth arriving here during the evening with jet lag, and everything. And today we had very heavy conditions out there, so probably we had the worst situation possible to play this tie.”

    • I am referring to their first meeting in Monte-Carlo. Nadal won 6-3, 6-1. I remember this quite clearly. The crowd rather vocally booed Mourier for getting the call wrong.

      • That scoreline, 63 61, proves that Goffin wasn’t going to win that match anyway so no need to keep mentioning it. They all get bad calls. Everyone knows that Rafa got a bad call playing against Roger in Miami when he was poised to break Roger’s serve and Federer ended up winning the match but no one ever talks about it. I think after 5 years it’s no longer topical.

        Cheryl, you’re not the only one. All commentators do it and it’s only this call against Goffin that is trotted out every single time they both meet. No doubt it will be mentioned again today. I just don’t get it.

  3. Yesterday there was another incident with a bad call in Rafa”s game. He served at match point in TB but apparently ball was out but not called. Kec didn’t challenge so Rafa can’t be held responsible for this! Those responsible should ensure that game is played as fairly as possible players can’t get involved except if they can challenge, if they chose not to then it’s entirely all on them!!!

    Me Rafa I would be upset if I was asked about it after the match. Not his fault!!

    • The lines are called eloctronically in Madrid this year and if a player challenges, it’s the same call they are shown on screen, so I don’t think a challenge would have made any diference.

      Rafa got a bad call against Youzhny in Dubai, and it was proved that the call was wrong but Mourier just apologised.

    • The last thing Rafa needs is a walkover. He needs match play. I don’t care about anyone else. Unfortunately it happens. Murray not meeting Novak was disappointing but maybe expected. I don’t think it would have been competitive. If the opponent gets injured then it’s a a walkover. But arafa needs to play.

  4. No I am here! It looks like we have to get used to Rafa being broken maybe more often. But he managed to turn it around and win the first set. I thought Rafa would have an easier time with Goffin. But he may have to work out some rust. Also maybe mental lapses from being off.

  5. NY, sorry!! I can’t watch as I’m in office but I c based on the score that he has come out to play, lol. I am hating that I can’t watch but as long as he wins I’m happy 😄😃!! I’ll watch highlights later thought really not the same.

  6. I will try to let you know how it’s going. Hopefully he can hold his serve. But he has definitely stepped it up a notch in the second set. This is a case where Rafa is playing better in the second set.

  7. Arrrrrrggghhhh!!!!! Y does RaFa DO that?!!!! This is not funny anymore!!!! Serve the match our Rafa!!! Fit Christ sake!!!!!! Damn it!!!

  8. I’m getting very irritated with Rafa not being able to serve out a match a second time running in as many matches played!

    What’s he thinking? What’s there to be nervous about, that he has to make all those errors? Just concentrates, stays focused and finishes the job for goodness sake! He has to tell himself that even if he loses his serve, he’s not losing the match, so why feel nervous when serving for it??

    Can’t stand it!

  9. Something must be wrong!!! Has to be!!! Serving from 40:15 to losing the whole set?!!! Gosh this is unreal!!!!

  10. He playing like this may soon loses this match! And even if he wins in the end, he’s not going to beat that young guy in the QF (if that young guy gets there)!

    What kind of mentality is that, when you’re a point or two away from a win, you start doubting yourself??

    • It was hard to watch it. He couldn’t serve. He just lost the plot. He was in complete control of this match. Then he serves for the match and it all falls apart.

      I don’t know if it’s mental or physical. To see it fall apart is just shocking. Goffin played well but Rafa knows him and what he has to do.

      This is the price of an injury. How on earth is he supposed to move on and play Alcazar? If he even wins this match.

  11. Both Tsitsipas and FAA are about to win their respective matches and they started their matches much later than Rafa’s! Rafa is making a mess out of a straight set winnable match when he has two MPs but squanders them away!

    He’s throwing a lifeline to Goffin and Goffin gladly takes it!

    • Well, I liked the purple he wore in Oz, but I’m cool with the blue.

      Good news is, Rafa *finally* won. Bad news is he has to play Alcaraz next. Well, I guess it will show him exactly where his game is atm. Anyway, I’m happy he got to the quarters. Didn’t really expect more.

  12. Nail biting match! Goffin came soooooo close and Rafa made far too many errors, but he did try to manage our expectations because he hasn’t had much preparation time.

    Vamos!

  13. I have to give both guys credit for fighting it out so hard in the TB.

    Well, Rafa fights hard to win in the end, so congrats to him for the win. At least he retains his QF points.

    He really has to go back and analyse what’s wrong with him when he’s serving out a match! He can’t afford to do this so often if he wants to carry on winning matches and titles.

  14. I actually like Rafa’s outfit although I agree that he looks much better in warm colours, they suit him.

    Rafa said it quite plainly that he has ups and downs. He was close to playing three sets yesterday so I always feared a complicated match today. Especially since I’m sure that Goffin holds a (misplaced) grudge against Nadal so it was expected that he’s extra motivated.

    The good news is that Rafa’s never say die attitude is still there and he keeps refusing to lose! The bad one is that he probably doesn’t stand a chance tomorrow, if Alcaraz wins today. He should retire due to fatigue and leave Alcaraz take care of good ole Nole on Saturday.

    For sure Nadal is on the right track, but going too far in Madrid would only delay his adjustments to sea level clay court conditions. Although I hate to see him losing, I think it would be better for him to lose or ideally not even play tomorrow.

  15. Just watched the TB, I did not have the heart to see it live. Two perfectly executed drop shots when facing match points, that’s a man of steel indeed… and quite some cojones!

    • I wish I could get to watch the match all over!! But in a way good I didn’t bcoz I’d be soooo pissed with Rafa after serving for set and getting broken. But at least his game was broken but not his spirit!! 😄 Vamos Rafa!! We love you!!

  16. At least Norrie has put up a scrap. Took the 2nd in a tb, but now he’s down a break in the 3rd.

    Whatever happens, Djokovic is the winner. He gets either a subpar Rafa or an Alcaraz who isn’t ready for the real big time, at least not yet! And Djoker gets the day off. Not sure that’s exactly what he needs atm though. Should be interestin’.

    • I would say that Alcaraz is ready for the real big time; however if him and Rafa kill each other once again tomorrow he probably won’t have the chance to show it against Novax.

      No match or long match are equally bad for undercooked players like Rafa and Djoker. I think that the winner is whoever leaves the tournament tomorrow and moves on sooner to more RG-like conditions.

  17. Sinner in 2; Nadal in 2.

    Why waste your time? Just leave the predictions blank from now on or code it so it shows the opposite of what you type.

  18. 50% prediction is fine!! Rafa did serve for the match in set two and should have served it out!!! And that’s y it’s called a prediction, it’s a likely outcome baring certain intangibles like Rafa suddenly losing focus mid-game!!

  19. NY, lol, don’t understand ppl!!! Ricky and Cheryl offer their predictions based on their knowledge of the players” capabilities, their knowledge of the game and their own personal beliefs of the likely outcome of the match. It makes for good commentary and lively debate bcoz not everyone has to agree on the predictions, even I sometimes don’t, but it does not mean that Ricky and Cheryll should not provide predictions!!! That’s utter nonsense!!! Besides I don’t ever remember Ricky or Cheryl saying they’re Nostradamus!!

    • Mona,

      Again well said! These comments on here trashing them for their predictions is just nonsense! Nobody gets it right all the time! But you really got it spot on with your explanation. Also I think they should be fun. Why take it so seriously?

      I think Ricky and Cheryl do a really good job!

  20. I was reading on VB and they were talking about Rafa’s foot acting up again. They said he was limping after the match. People saw him goimg to the soccer match yesterday and said he was limping.

    Somebody saw Rafa’s presser and said that it scared her because he looked so serious. I watched my recording of the end of the third set after I got home and then watched the replay on the tennis channel. I don’t remember seeing him limp.

    This never ends. If it’s not the rib then it’s the foot starting up. Now I am concerned. But when he can’t close out matches that doesn’t help.

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