Madrid R3 previews and picks: Nadal vs. Bolelli, Wawrinka vs. Dimitrov

Rafa 1Rafael Nadal will contest his third-round match in Madrid against Simone Bolelli on Thursday. The winner will face either Stan Wawrinka or Grigor Dimitrov in the quarterfinals.

(3) Rafael Nadal vs. Simone Bolelli

Nadal and Bolelli will be going head-to-head for the fifth time in their careers when they collide in round three of the Mutua Madrid Open on Thursday. All four of their previous encounters have gone Nadal’s way and it has been absolute domination by the Spaniard ever since Bolelli took the first set between the two players on the indoor hard courts of Rotterdam in 2009. Nadal has since drubbed Bolelli by the following set scores: 6-2, 7-5, 6-3, 6-3, 6-2, 6-2, 6-1, 6-2, and 6-2. They have faced each other only once on clay, with the former world No. 1 cruising 6-2, 6-2, 6-1 at the 2012 French Open.

Bolelli has given himself a fifth shot at Nadal thanks to victories this week over Kevin Anderson and Luca Vanni. The 63rd-ranked Italian owns 15 ATP-level match victories this season and has reached three quarterfinals. Nadal, of course, is in a well-documented slump. But the No. 3 seed has to be feeling good in Madrid as the two-time defending champion and coming off a routine 6-4, 6-3 defeat of Steve Johnson on Wednesday. As their past history suggests, this is a difficult matchup for Bolelli and his one-handed backhand as he tries to contend with Nadal’s heavy topspin. And clay obviously won’t improve the underdog’s chances.

Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 5-7 games

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(10) Grigor Dimitrov vs. (8) Stan Wawrinka

Wawrinka and Dimitrov will be squaring off for the fifth time in their careers on Thursday. The head-to-head series stands at 2-2 following a 6-1, 6-2 beatdown by Dimitrov a few weeks ago on the clay courts of Monte-Carlo. Wawrinka took their only other clay-court meeting 3-6, 6-4, 6-1 in the same round (third) of this same Madrid event in 2013.

The two competitors, who played doubles with each other last summer at Queen’s Club, are both in desperate need of some momentum. Dimitrov has already done well to win two matches this week–over Donald Young and Fabio Fognini–but he is still just 16-8 on the season with no final appearances. Wawrinka is a disappointing 4-4 in his last eight matches. The ninth-ranked Swiss, who held off lucky loser Joao Sousa 7-6(1), 7-5 on Tuesday, is also dealing with off-the-court issues in the form of a recent separation from his wife. This will be more competitive than the Monte-Carlo mauling, but Dimitrov should once again have the edge.

Pick: Dimitrov in 3

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58 Comments on Madrid R3 previews and picks: Nadal vs. Bolelli, Wawrinka vs. Dimitrov

    • Lover Rafa period!!! But sometimes………i have to ask why?!

      Happy that he won in straights………needs to keep up the tempo!!

  1. from what I have seen so far nothing to be hyped up when Rafa is concerned…he still has a long way to go…although I think he is in better control with his old racquet…way too many UEs and lousy return from our Doctor…I ‘ve learned to be realistic if any…watching Nishi play last night I was surprised at fast hits and flat tennis they employ…I guess I am forgetting what the real tennis looks like…

    • Still, Rafa has come a long way from Barcelona. He is playing well, but he needs to win titles to truly arrive at his peak. He is definitely going for his shots and not being timid. He seems to believe more in himself.

      • Definitely playing with more ‘colm’. Could have wished for a more competitive match though for him to get more momentum. The unforced errors to winners is still puzzling: don’t really know what to make of that. All in all, Rafa seems to have come out of the slump and agree with you he is moving in the right direction but as Natasho says there is still a way to go.

    • Rafa is playing well. Bolelli was on fire in the first 3 games but once Rafa got into his rhythm, Bolelli just couldn’t find a way past him so I think that demoralized him to a certain extent.

      At the beginning the commies were beginning to talk Bolelli’s chances up but that didn’t last long.

  2. lol, they toss the coin and whoever – before it reaches the ground- whacks it into the umpire or line judge’s eye first wins the match

  3. It’s nice to see Rafa get an easy win, but it was expected. I am not getting too excited about it. The real test will come in the next match. Then we will see where Rafa is at.

    The tennis channel switched to Isner/Krygios because Rafa’s match was not competitive. I am not going to watch two big servers blasting aces all over the place. It’s boring.

  4. Bernardes hasn’t taken a Rafa match since he made Rafa change his shorts on court in Rio and Rafa told him he had had enough and doesn’t want him to umpire his matches anymore.
    I didn’t think players could pick and choose who they want to take their matches.

  5. nadline10 says:
    May 7, 2015 at 2:48 pm
    Sorry, I’ve been out of it a while … Bernardes made Rafa change his shorts on court…?

  6. Rafa started slow but got better and better. Bolelli did not take advantage of Rafa’s slow start but then he got better and better.

    The last game played by rafa was such a treat. It was the most confident game service game he has played in quite some time. He was eager to finish the point so quickly and that RUNNING-BACKWAR-NO-LOOK forehand lob winner was outrageously good. rafa enjoyed it so much and so did the crowd. I was fist pumping too lol.

    Rafa is certainly trying his best out there and he definitely has got the desire! he is practicing well and is quite determined. Only logical to assume he will get his confidence back soon. Don’t want to draw any conclusions from these two wins (though they have been positive esp given that rafa has not dropped his serve). let’s wait and see how he plays his quarter final against a tough opponent.

    Grigor has been struggling himself lately and given their matchup, I would pick rafa in 2.

    • Atul,

      I think it’s always hard to gauge Rafa’s play when his opponent doesn’t really have any weapons to trouble him. Rafa got into a groove and Bolelli really couldn’t do much. He has been serving well. I thought he served very well in his first match, too.

      We will know more once Rafa plays Dimitrov. He may be in a slump of his own, but I expect him to come out and give Rafa a match. He has the game to trouble Rafa and has played him tough in the past. If Rafa can get by in fairly routine fashion, that will be good news.

  7. this was not a challenge for Rafa …Grigor will be the real test…Bolleli made little effort…however, I agree that Rafa looks more confident…well, let’s see him tomorrow…at least he did not have a long exhausting match this time…and that lob was insane…it’s been a long time since I’ve seen something that extraordinary from Rafa….

    Vamos Dr.Nadal !!!

  8. I can understand why some are not taking too much for granted re Rafa’s form because we have had many false dawns since the beginning of the year, but I fell he is streets ahead of where he was in Barcelona not least because he is now using his old racquet. He’s even got the swagger again.

    • LOL..true indeed…luckily we did not see that discouraging humble look in Rafa’s eyes today…we saw some real determination and belief instead…
      I’ve learned to be cautious…if Rafa beats Grigor tomorrow he will definitely be on the right track…
      Vamos DR!

  9. I was nervous about Rafa playing Johnson because he is a big server, the kind of player that could cause Rafa problems when he is not firing on all cylinders. Once he got past him, I felt a lot ‘colmer’.

  10. I think Rafa is feeling better with his old racket. He isn’t spraying shots all over the place out of control. But I am being cautious because we’ve seen this movie before. Rafa gets a few early round matches against opponents who really can’t challenge him and wins easily. Then he bumps up against a quality opponent and —-? Will this time in Madrid be the charm? I sure hope so!

    Go get ’em Doctor Nadal! 🙂

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