Madrid R3 preview and prediction: Nishikori vs. Gasquet

A quarterfinal spot will be at stake when Kei Nishikori and Richard Gasquet collide on Thursday in Madrid. They are in a section of the draw that has been vacated by Stan Wawrinka and Gael Monfils, so the winner will face either Nick Kyrgios or Pablo Cuevas. Adam Leigh previews the action.

Kei Nishikori and Richard Gasquet will resume what has been a shockingly one-sided rivalry when they take the court for third-round action at the Matua Madrid Open on Thursday. World No. 12 Gasquest is looking to add to his 6-0 (with one retirement) dominance of Japan’s top player.

Both men are enjoying strong 2016 campaigns so far and both will harbor ambitions of being involved in the business end of one of the clay-court seasons marquee stops. Nishikori survived a massive scare against Fabio Fognini in the second round and if the Italian’s mental demons had not got the best of him again, he would likely have taken a bow in Madrid by serving out the match late in the third set.

Gasquet, it has to be said, has been underwhelming at the highest levels on clay throughout his career. In 13 years on tour he has produced just the one final trip at an ATP Masters 1000 on the dirt, and he has never been past the round of 16 at Roland Garros. Nishikori is coming off final appearances in Miami and Barcelona, but his lucrative season to this point is slightly deceptive; he owns just one win against a top 10 player–at Jo-Wilfred Tsonga’s expense at the Australian Open.

Gasquet’s dominance of Nishikori is predominantly a product of the favorable style matchup he enjoys; with Nishikori whizzing around on the baseline he invariably leaves some balls short, allowing Gasquet time to step into his Picasso of a backhand and paint the edges of the court. On clay, the Frenchman cannot quite set up as well for his groundstrokes, so his work on the ball is slightly compromised. Although that may benefit Nishikori, unfortunately the mechanics of this contest are so jarringly geared towards Gasquet that the slower track should not be enough to help him a great deal.

Gasquet will do what Fognini should have done and and send Nishikori tumbling out of Madrid.

Pick: Gasquet in 2

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