Rafael Nadal’s draw at the Mutua Madrid Open certainly isn’t the worst of all possible outcomes, but it also isn’t a good one considering what just transpired in Barcelona.
Alex de Minaur was Nadal’s second-round opponent last week and the story is the same in Madrid, where they will go head-to-head once again on Saturday. The 37-year-old Spaniard opened in Barcelona with a 6-2, 6-3 beatdown of Flavio Cobolli, but de Minaur was an entirely different proposition. With no days off in between matches, Nadal wore down physically and lost 7-5, 6-1.
The rematch marks the sixth meeting between Nadal and De Minaur, giving the 25-year-old a golden chance to level their head-to-head series at 3-3. Once 0-3 against the 22-time major champion, De Minaur has since won two in a row–having also prevailed 3-6, 6-1, 7-5 at the 2023 United Cup.
While Nadal has mostly been absent from the tour in recent seasons, De Minaur has reached new heights. The Australian recently peaked in the top 10 for the first time in his career and currently registers at No. 11 in the world. He is a sparkling 23-8 for his 2024 campaign with a successful title defense in Acapulco and a runner-up performance in Rotterdam.
The question is: will De Minaur see an improved Nadal on the other side of the net 10 days later? It’s possible. Nadal destroyed Darwin Blanch 6-1, 6-0 on Thursday and his serve looked at least a little bit better than it did in Barcelona. Moreover, Madrid is now a two-week tournament so Nadal–and everyone else–gets a day off in between matches. That should leave the former world No. 1 in better physical shape than what was on display during his recent loss to De Minaur.
That being said, conditions in Madrid are better for De Minaur–and worse for Nadal–than they were in Barcelona. Although clay is probably De Minaur’s worst surface, he grew up training on it in Spain. He is more than capable of producing good results on dirt, especially in fast conditions.
Nadal should be more competitive than he was in Barcelona, but De Minaur once again has to be considered the favorite.
Pick: De Minaur in 3
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who ya got?
Hard to say. De Minaur is pretty bad on clay, including Madrid, but Rafa was even worse in Barcelona.
In terms of fitness, a lot can change in 10 days.
Today’s match was almost completely irrelevant. Rafa looked rusty but not physically hampered. Serve looked quite okay, in the second set it was on average 10Km/h slower than his normal numbers. It looks more than on track, he said that he’s not rushing to serve 100%. Remember that he beat Fritz on grass basically without the serve, so this is not really a problem for him on clay against most opponents.
I suspect that Rafa does not want to lose twice in a row to a player of De Minaur’s calibre on clay. Also, to follow his plan, he needs to win more than one match in Madrid 😀 So he will try much harder to win this time.
If Rafa does not have any physical issues (other than imperfect fitness) he just might win this one. He can give close to 100% in first set, then “rest” in the second if he’s tired. Then surprise Demon in the third.
I don’t assume that the Australian will bring his best game in his first match either; if Rafa blitzes him in the first he can actually win this in 2.
Rafa wins 7-5 1-6 6-3, how about that? 🙂
I wish it were not so, because we all want Rafa to do well….but Demon just a better player right now…in 2.
I think I had Nadal winning this in 3.
Nadal disputes the call and the umpires decision and De Minaur yells c’mon and sticks to Nadal after getting the break
There’s very little compassion out there right now
Or maybe De Minaur was just trying to toughen him up.
Rafa is soooooooo Rusty out there and de Minaur is not even playing that great!!!
Rafa is playing so defensive he can’t win that way!! He needs to start going in the offense beginning with his serve!!! Rafa is to wrap up first set and restrategise in second.
De Minaur is very fast so Rafa needs to take ball early and effort more net play
Vamos Rafa!! Crowd is with u!!! But the rust shows!
Rafa played well
Yes Ricky, but the first set he was frustrated with his play bcoz he was making a number of uncharacteristic errors. He was rusty and it’s expected after 1.5 hrs off tour!