Madrid R1 previews and predictions: Thiem vs. Del Potro, Dimitrov vs. Carreno Busta

An intriguing first-round showdown between Dominic Thiem and Juan Martin Del Potro is on the schedule for Tuesday in Madrid. Grigor Dimitrov is also back in action following his Istanbul meltdown on Sunday.

(14) Dominic Thiem vs. (PR) Juan Martin Del Potro

Thiem and Del Potro will be going head-to-head for the first time in their careers when they collide in round one of the Mutua Madrid Open on Tuesday. This is Del Potro’s fifth tournament of the season, which began three months ago in Delray Beach. Impressively, the 27-year-old Argentine has not yet lost a single first-round match. His 2016 record stands at 7-4 with a semifinal finish in Delray and a quarterfinal performance last week in Munich.

Of course, Del Potro has enjoyed extremely favorable draws for his opening matches so far this season. That trend will end against Thiem, who is the ATP Tour leader in 2016 match victories with 29. The 14th-ranked Austrian, however, has not been entirely on fire during this clay-court swing–which is generally his favorite time of year. He lost to Nadal in straight sets in the Monte-Carlo third round and struggled at times in Munich before falling to Philipp Kohlschreiber in Sunday’s title match. Thiem will punish the Del Potro backhand with a steady diet of topspin forehands and flat backhands, and it will be something for which the 2009 U.S. Open champion is not yet ready.

Pick: Thiem in 2

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(WC) Pablo Carreno Busta vs. Grigor Dimitrov

Dimitrov will be taking the court two days after an epic meltdown in the Istanbul final. The 28th-ranked Bulgarian led Diego Schwartzman by a set and 5-2 in the second only to collapse with the title on his racket. He incurred three racket-abuse penalties during the third set, the last of which resulted in a game misconduct. It came with Schwartzman leading 5-0 and one game away from victory, so that’s how the match ended. Despite all of that, Dimitrov is a decent 18-9 for his 2016 campaign.
Dimitrov racket 2
Up next for the former world No. 8 on Tuesday is a third career ATP-level, main-draw encounter with Carreno Busta, who has lost each of their previous contests. Dimitrov prevailed 6-2, 6-4 at this same event in 2014 and 6-4, 6-1 last fall on the indoor hard courts of Paris. Like his opponent, Carreno Busta also played in a final last week. The 46th-ranked Spaniard reeled off victories over Fernando Verdasco, Taro Daniel, Gilles Simon, and Benoit Paire before falling to Nicolas Almagro in a three-setter. Carreno Busta has home-court advantage in this one, is playing on his favorite surface, and is facing someone who may be carrying some mental baggage.

Pick: Carreno Busta in 3

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22 Comments on Madrid R1 previews and predictions: Thiem vs. Del Potro, Dimitrov vs. Carreno Busta

  1. I really like Del Potro and would love to see him get the upset. Don’t think it’ll happen, but I can wish. It’ll be interesting to watch Grigor handle this next match. Don’t have a clue as to who will win

  2. Ricky, I just managed to see the scoreline for the Dimitrov loss on Sunday, It was beyond me how he could only manage to lose a match from there…

    Tennis is tough enough, both players coming from losing finals on Sunday so it will be who has the bounce back factor and mental toughness in this one, who has energy left in the tack mentally rather than physically as we know these guys are fit.

    Ill give the slight edge to Grigor, even though PCB has home court advantage…

    Should be a good one… Thiem would be my pick in the other one if he can get enough balls to the backhand of Delpo…

  3. Even though Thiem lost in the finals the expression of his face and the shake with Kohls at the net showed he was not too down about it! He will move on…Dimitrov however is in trouble mentally and will need more effort to overcome the demons he is fighting with…

    I would like Delpo emerging victorious though but highly unlikely to happen…

  4. Was at Delpo’s match v Kohlschreiber last week. Minus being broken in the opening game of the match, it was a fairly even first set I felt – in which Delpo also had a couple of chances to break. Despite the 6-1 scoreline in the second, again lots of deuce games. Could definitely see the matchplay rust coming to show in the second, but with time that’ll return. I’m curious as to how Thiem plays today – he had a few 3 set matches last week and a long final on Sunday. Think Dominic will get the win, but in 3.

  5. Tough call for Dimitrov today. Interesting to see his body language when he faces the crowd today. I have a hunch the Istanbul fiasco will have served as a wake-up call and we could see a reformed Dimi and a close fought match.

    Dimitrov in 3

    • ed251137 (AT 10:16 AM),

      The Madrid crowd has loved Dimi.
      Redeucer, May 12, 2013: ¤¤ With a pro-Dimitrov crowd consistently chanting Dimitrov’s name throughout the match, the sensitive Serbian finally succombed to the pressure. He exclaimed in his native Serbian: “Sad ce te kurac da mi lizete,” which literally translates to, “You will now lick my dick.”¤¤

  6. I just turned on the tv to see Thiem and Delpo. Maybe Thiem is tired. I wasn’t sure if Delpo could get it done. But this would be a nice win for the big guy.

  7. As for Dimi and PCB, I don’t know what to think after that ugly meltdown. Dimi is in big trouble and anything could happen. He could bounce back with a better effort and behavior, or it could be more of the same.

  8. That’s why I said that he shouldn’t be hyped as a dark horse for RG. He isn’t looking good in this match.

  9. Good for Delpo! With Fed out that section of the draw has opened up. Rafa could play him in the quarterfinals.

  10. Thiem is human after all. At his age I do worry about him misinterpreting the beginning of a potential season-ending injury for something of little consequence. It’s a relief to see him lose, imo. Very happy for Delpo! He has to feel good about it.

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