Stefanos Tsitsipas is the only seeded player still alive in the bottom half of the draw at the Madrid Masters heading into quarterfinal Thursday. Tsitsipas is facing Jan-Lennard Struff, while Zhizhen Zhang awaits Aslan Karatsev.
(LL) Jan-Lennard Struff vs. (4) Stefanos Tsitsipas
Only Tsitsipas in the bottom half of the draw and Tsitsipas at the top have managed to avoid the upset chaos at the Mutua Madrid Open. It is all set up for an Alcaraz-Tsitsipas showdown in the final, and the pathway is especially clear for the Greek. Struff stands in his way on Thursday before either Aslan Karatsev or Zhizhen Zhang would be on the other side of the net in the semifinals. Struff is a lucky loser, Karatsev is a qualifier, and Zhang is ranked 99th in the world.
Of course, nothing is guaranteed and Tsitsipas has already endured a couple of scares this fortnight. The world No. 5 was pushed to a third-set tiebreaker by Dominic Thiem and also went three sets with Sebastian Baez before crushing Bernabe Zapata Miralles 6-3, 6-1. Struff has made the most of his lucky-loser spot by beating Lorenzo Sonego, Ben Shelton, Dusan Lajovic, and Pedro Cachin. It has been an impressive run by the in-form German, but the competition level has been unspectacular. Although Struff can keep the score close because of his ability to hold serve with ease, expect Tsitsipas to improve to 5-2 in the head-to-head series without too much trouble.
Pick: Tsitsipas in 2
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Zhizhen Zhang vs. (Q) Aslan Karatsev
Zhang and Karatsev will be going head-to-head for the second time in their careers. Their only previous encounter came last fall on the indoor hard courts of Astana, where Zhang prevailed 4-6, 6-4, 6-1.
The rematch comes in extremely unexpected fashion. Karatsev is struggling down at No. 121 in the rankings, while Zhang had not won a single ATP-level match in 2023 prior to arriving in Madrid. It has all turned around suddenly for both men, as Karatsev’s fortnight includes upsets of Alex de Minaur and Daniil Medvedev while Zhang’s unbelievable run features three consecutive third-set tiebreaker wins over Denis Shapovalov, Cameron Norrie, and Taylor Fritz. With a day off in between matches, the 26-year-old from China should be recovered in time for the quarters. Zhang’s ability to hold up under pressure and his previous result against Karatsev both bode well for his chances on Thursday.
Pick: Zhang in 3
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Tsi in 2; Ksatz in 3.