Five of the top eight seeds have made their way to the Madrid quarterfinals. Four of them are bunched into a pair of bluckbuster matchups on Friday: Rafael Nadal vs. David Ferrer and Andy Murray vs. Tomas Berdych. Chris Skelton previews the action.
(5) Rafael Nadal vs. (4) David Ferrer
The Madrid crowd will thrill to the sight of its nation’s top two players colliding at their nation’s most significant tournament. But David Ferrer will not thrill to the sight of the man who has tormented him on the most productive surface for both of them over the last decade. Although he enters this quarterfinal as the lower-ranked player, Rafael Nadal has swept their last 14 clay matches, their last 20 clay sets, and all five of their encounters in Spain. Their recent history has tilted more dramatically than ever towards Nadal, who has lost seven total games in their last six sets.
That trend surprises considering Ferrer’s outstanding form on all surfaces in 2012-13. Reaching the top four for the first time this year, he has reached semifinals at three of the last four majors, he won his first Masters 1000 title, and he came within a point of winning a second. Still, Ferrer seems content to function as the gatekeeper of the ATP, regularly dominating the journeymen on the tour while losing to the trio of Nadal, Novak Djokovic, and Roger Federer–who have towered above it. His lack of belief against that elite group has crippled him on key points when he does play close matches against them. Just as costly is his lack of offensive firepower, a significant flaw against Nadal. The younger Spaniard can outlast Ferrer with consistency at least equal to his, and he also can outhit him from the baseline.
Few options thus remain for the veteran, who has looked shaky this clay season. Ferrer did topple the surging Tommy Haas in a Thursday three-setter, but a gulf yawns between his form and what Nadal has produced. Despite losing to Horacio Zeballos in the first event of his comeback and to Djokovic in Monte-Carlo, Nadal has reached the final of every tournament that he has entered this year and won three clay titles already. The last of those came at Ferrer’s expense in Acapulco, and another rout could unfold here if Nadal stays as purposeful as he has in his first two matches this week.
Pick: Nadal in 2
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(3) Andy Murray vs. (6) Tomas Berdych
This most intriguing of the quarterfinals almost didn’t happen when Murray flirted with disaster against Gilles Simon on Thursday night. Losing eight of the first 10 games, the world No. 3 (soon-to-be No. 2) also let a 3-0 lead slip away in the final set and two different leads in the decisive tiebreak before advancing by the narrowest of margins. As a result of that uneven effort, Murray spent three taxing hours on court. His exertions may have drained him of energy for a quarterfinal the next evening against last year’s Madrid runner-up.
Murray does hold the recent momentum in his rivalry with Berdych, having swept two key meetings on hard courts last fall. On the other hand, Berdych has won both of his previous clay meetings against Murray, defeating the Scot in a Monte0-Carlo three-setter in 2012 and more comfortably at Roland Garros in 2010. The Czech’s raw power allows his strokes to penetrate the clay more effectively, while the slow surface can mask his mobility issues by giving him more time to set his feet. Not impressive in his first few clay tournaments, he had dropped six of 13 sets on the surface this year before a straight-set victory over Kevin Anderson to reach this quarterfinal. Like Murray, who suffered a resounding early defeat at the Monte-Carlo Masters, Berdych can flip the script overnight and he becomes more dangerous with each match that he survives.
First-serve percentage will loom large for both men, since both are much less formidable when resorting to second serves. Murray likely will let Berdych assume the role of the aggressor, while he slips into the counter-punching mentality that comes most naturally to him. This quarterfinal features multiple strength-on-strength matchups, such as Berdych’s serve against Murray’s return and Berdych’s shot-making against Murray’s movement. Each man has reached a Roland Garros semifinal, but neither has reached a Masters 1000 final on red clay. The winner will be favored to do so this week.
Pick: Berdych in 3
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