Madrid QF preview and prediction: Alcaraz vs. Rublev

Carlos Alcaraz and Andrey Rublev will be going head-to-head for just the second time in their careers when they clash in the quarterfinals of the Mutua Madrid Open on Wednesday. Their only previous meeting came last fall on the indoor hard courts of the Nitto ATP Finals, where Alcaraz got the job done 7-5, 6-2.

This is far from a surprising Masters 1000 quarterfinal matchup, but–for different reasons–both players have to be thrilled to find themselves in the last eight.

It is an especially much-needed result for Rublev. The Russian went into this fortnight on a four-match losing streak and had picked up just a single win (over Andy Murray in Indian Wells) since his default from the Dubai ATP 500 in early March. The last six weeks had marked the worst slump of Rublev’s career since he cemented himself as a top-10 player in 2020. From basically out of nowhere, the 26-year-old has advanced in Madrid with defeats of Facundo Bagnis, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, and Tallon Griekspoor–all in straight sets.

Alcaraz’s issue heading into this event was health, as he missed both Monte-Carlo and Barcelona because of a right-arm injury. However, the world No. 2 has mostly silenced those questions. He opened with straight-set routs of Alexander Shevchenko and Thiago Seyboth Wild before struggling with Jan-Lennard Struff on Tuesday in a rematch of last year’s final. Alcaraz squandered a set and a break lead, failed to close it out on serve at 5-3, 40-0 in the third, and finally prevailed 6-3, 6-7(5), 7-6(4).

Conditions in Madrid are obviously fine for Alcaraz; after all, he is the two-time defending champion. But they are also great for Rublev. The world No. 8’s lone Masters 1000 title has come on clay (Monte-Carlo in 2023) and he likes being on offense all the time. Madrid’s high altitude allows him to implement such a tactic to a greater extent than most other tournaments.

It would not be a shock for Rublev to suddenly be off to the races now that his slump is seemingly over. He has been better than Alcaraz so far in Madrid and has a good chance to keep it going.

Pick: Rublev in 3

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