Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer will continue their Madrid campaigns on Thursday with respective intriguing contests against talented, colorful opponents. It’s Nadal vs. Frances Tiafoe and Federer vs. Gael Monfils in the third round.
Frances Tiafoe vs. (2) Rafael Nadal
Nadal and Tifoe will be going head-to-head for the second time in their careers and for the second time this season when they battle for a quarterfinal spot at the Mutua Madrid Open on Thursday. Their only previous encounter came in the quarters of the Australian Open, where Nadal dominated 6-3, 6-4, 6-2. Having faced the 17-time major champion once before will only benefit Tiafoe, but going up against him on clay and in Spain is something the 21-year-old American certainly has never done. It did not work out well for Felix Auger-Aliassime, who lost 6-3, 6-3 on Wednesday.
With that victory, the second-ranked Spaniard improved to 18-4 this season as he bids for a sixth Madrid title. Tiafoe has picked up an impressive 11 ATP-level wins in 2019 and is on the brink of French Open seeding at 37th in the rankings. He reached the Estoril quarterfinals last week and so far in Madrid has taken out Nikoloz Basilashvili and Philipp Kohlschreiber in three sets. As if the odds were not already stacked against him heavily enough, this will be a case of somewhat fatigued Tiafoe staring at a well-rested Nadal on the other side of the net.
Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 5-7 games
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(4) Roger Federer vs. (15) Gael Monfils
The jury is still out on Federer’s clay-court game as he heads into third-round action in Madrid on Thursday. On the heels of an opening bye, Federer did not have to do much against an injured Richard Gasquet during a 6-2, 6-3 whitewash. That marked the 37-year-old’s first match on the slow stuff since the 2016 Rome Masters as he prepares for his first French Open appearance since 2015.
Next up for Federer is a 14th career meeting with Monfils, who trails the head-to-head series 9-4. Surprisingly, this rivalry has been all even dating back to 2010–when the Frenchman started to reverse what had been a hopeless 0-5 record against Federer. They split eight encounters between the fall of 2010 and the spring of 2015, with Federer most recently prevailing in a four-setter at the 2015 French Open. The four-year drought is over thanks to the Swiss’ defeat of Gasquet combined with Monfils’ victories over Andreas Seppi and Marton Fucsovics. Madrid’s 15th seed is an awesome 18-4 this season, but injuries and random mental walkabouts in the middle of matches continue to be an issue. Monfils, who dropped his opening set 6-1 to Fucsovics, will have plenty of chances in this one but may not be solid enough in the pressure-packed moments.
Pick: Federer in 3
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Ditto with Rafa in 2 and the # of games Tiafoe loses.
I’m not sure about Federer vs Monfils.
Fognini v Theim, is that the preliminary Roland Garros final?
Hopefully Tiafoe will present more of a challenge to Rafa than FAA, who under-performed. Nadal was definitely not 100% in that match. But he should still have enough to take Tiafoe on clay. Nadal in 3.
Fed was solid against Gasquet, who showed not signs of injury apart from not running for a few drop shots. Otherwise he played ok; he just got cleanly beat by the better player. But it’s hard to know what to expect against Monfils. I’m guessing his usual mental lapses will be enough in each set to lose. Fed in two.
I’m also going to go with Federer in 3. However, I will not be the least bit surprised to see Fed lose. Monfils has just been a horrible matchup for Fed in recent years. He can push and throw junk at Fed all day, and not give him any rhythm, and then suddenly inject pace. Federer needs a player to give him rhythm to be able to execute his late-30’s game style, and Monfils just does not usually do that. Although Fed did win at RG last time they played, I was seriously blown away by just how badly Monfils destroyed Fed in the Davis Cup Final. That was best-of-five, and he absolutely wiped the floor with Fed in straight sets. I can’t think of any other non-Big 4+Stan player who can do that to Fed- in any surface. It’s just one of those surprisingly bad matchups for Fed. If Fed serves at barely 50% like he did against Gasquet, he could be in trouble against Monfils…
Monfils is too much too soon for Fed. It was good for him to win a match against old foe Gasquet but he now needs to look towards Rome for further improvement. After losing to young gun Davidovich Fokina, Monfils is seeking redemption and what better way to redeem yourself than to take out an underdone GOAT.
Monfils in 3.
Tiafoe to cause a boilover. Madrid are the least ideal conditions for Nadal on clay and will suit the big relatively flat hitting Tiafoe down to a tee.
His unexpected results thus far indicate he’s relishing the clay and with Nadal looking slightly vulnerable this season, I can’t ignore the warning signs.
Tiafoe in 3.
Fed in 2, rafa in 2…5-7 games
Monfils is too much too soon for Fed. It was good for him to win a match against old foe Gasquet but he now needs to look towards Rome for further improvement. After losing to young gun Davidovich Fokina, Monfils is seeking redemption and what better way to redeem yourself than to take out an underdone GOAT.
Monfils in 3.
Tiafoe to cause a boilover. Madrid are the least ideal conditions for Nadal on clay and will suit the big relatively flat hitting Tiafoe down to a tee.
His unexpected results thus far indicate he’s relishing the clay and with Nadal looking slightly vulnerable this season, I can’t ignore the warning signs.
Tiafoe in 3
Congrats Federer
Wow. That was a war between Fed and Monfils. I predicted Fed in 3 because Monfils has been a nightmare matchup for Fed on clay. But I did not think it would be THAT close. Crazy to think Federer-Monfils has actually been an awesome match-up in recent years. Something about Fed just seems to bring the ever-so-rare competitive fire out of Monfils.
I just say, now, Federer will be playing with HOUSE MONEY against Thiem! In my opinion, Thiem would have been at least slightly favored already, but now that Fed has to turn around and play again tomorrow after today’s epic, that should make Thiem even more of a favorite. If Fed was even 34, rather than 37, I wouldn’t think today’s match would be that much of a hindrance for him. But he’s pushing 38, and that’s just not an age where it’s in any way easy to recover from a match like that in such quick time- especially on clay.
I predict a routine straight sets win for Thiem tomorrow. Given the court speed and altitude, I would have predicted that could go either way. But I just don’t see how Fed at his age will realistically be able to fresh enough to take on the most in-form clay player in the world. Again, Fed has absolutely nothing to lose because his expectations weren’t sky-high coming in to his first clay tournament, and he shouldn’t be favored against Thiem on clay anyway. Plus the fact that we will expect Fed to be spent after today- he really has nothing to lose tomorrow, so that could work in his favor. But I doubt it, personally.
I very much doubt it will be an easy straight sets win for Thiem. First set today was over in a flash, so it was almost a 2 set match for Fed. A very tough one, for sure, but I don’t think his fitness will be an issue tomorrow. And the points will probably be shorter. I’d say Thiem is a very slight favourite but nothing more than that. Fed can play (and certainly serve) better than he did today; if he does I think he’ll win tomorrow.
That is true, Joe- I didn’t really think about the fact that the first set was basically a gimme. I hope I’m wrong because if there is a clay tournament where Fed has his best chance of beating Thiem, it’s surely Madrid.
Holy crapoli, Joe- you were right! I just watched Fed-Monfils. That match was actually not very grueling at all considering the score line. What a strange match, though! Classic Monfils. One minute you’re wondering how the guy hasn’t ever even won a Masters, and then the next minute it’s like he’s never played tennis before. So up and down. He definitely had the match on his racquet, but Fed played well on big points deep in the 3rd and in the tiebreak. Maybe it’s just me, but it seemed like the crowd was decidedly in favor of Monfils. I know he’s a popular guy for fans, but Federer always still has at least a slight edge with the crowd. Aside from maybe facing Rafa in Madrid, I hadn’t heard a crowd more for the other guy against Fed since pre-2009. Anyway, I don’t think he should be as tired as I thought he would be against Thiem. It is a positive for Fed that he got pushed hard, as the Gasquet match was all but a walkover…
That being said, I agree with you that Thiem should still be a slight favorite. I think I’ll change my pick to Thiem in 3.
Fun match betwen Fed and La Monf after the first set bagel! Shame to lose either of them.
Tignor’s analysis of Fed-Monf focusing on Fed’s tactic to come in to net more in the 3rd set. It’s something we may see more of against Thiem.
http://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2019/05/how-far-can-roger-federer-go-serving-and-volleying-clay/81473/