Madrid previews and predictions: Bautista Agut vs. Brooksby, Shapovalov vs. Murray

American youngster Jenson Brooksby will take on Spanish veteran Roberto Bautista Agut in the Madrid first round on Tuesday. Second-round action is getting underway with Denis Shapovalov vs. Andy Murray.

(17) Roberto Bautista Agut vs. Jenson Brooksby

Usually when a Spaniard takes to a clay court against an American, the outcome is fairly easy to predict. In the case of Roberto Bautista Agut and Jenson Brooksby, the prediction isn’t so straightforward. First, Bautista Agut isn’t at his best on clay. Of his 10 career titles only one has come on the dirt (eight on hard courts, one on grass). Furthermore, neither man has a clay-court match win yet in 2022. Madrid is RBA’s first clay event and Brooksby lost his opening match in Houston to J.J. Wolf.

But perhaps most telling of all, Brooksby defeated Bautista Agut in the Spaniard’s last tournament. The two men met in Miami a month ago; Brooksby just edged it in three. In Bautista Agut’s favor, they are playing in Spain. Working against him, though, is a shockingly dismal record at the Madrid Masters–where he has never been past the round of 16.

For Brooksby, clay-court tennis (at least at the professional level) is largely uncharted territory. The American has played exactly two matches on the dirt and lost them both. Given that lack of experience, Bautista Agut has to be the favorite on Tuesday–but don’t be surprised if Brooksby gets a set.

Cheryl pick: Bautista Agut in 3

Ricky pick: Bautista Agut in 3

(WC) Andy Murray vs (14) Denis Shapovalov

Andy Murray posted his first clay-court win since 2017, as he was able to take advantage of a badly struggling Dominic Thiem. The Austrian is trying to make his way back after a wrist injury kept him sidelined since last summer. While Thiem is still far from his best, Murray played a smart, clean match to get the win on Monday.

He runs into the big-hitting Canadian Denis Shapovalov in the second round. Shapovalov got quite close to dispatching eventual Australian Open champion Rafael Nadal in Melbourne, but he was unable to capitalize. Besides his missed opportunity in the quarters Down Under, he has had one other good result–a semifinal showing in Dubai. Since that event in February he has been in dismal form with exactly one win combined for his efforts at Indian Wells and Miami.

Shapovalov hasn’t performed well in Madrid recently, though the tournament with its high altitude has been kind to big servers. He made the semis back in 2018, but it has been bad news for the left-hander ever since. Given Murray’s struggles, Shapovalov still gets the nod for Tuesday’s match–but Murray is going to make him work for it.

Cheryl pick: Shapovalov in 3

Ricky pick: Murray in 3