Following a one-week hiatus, the busiest stretch of Masters 1000 tournaments resumes this week with the Mutua Madrid Open. Rafael Nadal will be putting streaks of 12 matches and 46 clay-court sets on the line, while he is also defending his 2017 Madrid title. Can anyone challenge him? Roger Federer, of course, is out for the entire clay-court swing—leaving Alexander Zverev, Grigor Dimitrov, Juan Martin Del Potro, and Dominic Thiem as the top seeds behind Nadal.
Mutua Madrid Open
Where: Madrid, Spain
Surface: Clay
Points: 1000
Prize money: 6,200,860 Euros
Top seed: Rafael Nadal
Defending champion: Rafael Nadal
Draw analysis: Thiem must be ruing the day he exited the top four of the rankings, because that means he can meet Nadal as early as the quarterfinals in most tournaments. And that is exactly what has happened so far in April and May. After facing each other in the Monte-Carlo quarters, arguably the two best clay-courters in the world are on a collision course to do the same in Madrid. However, Thiem is no longer a shoe-in for the title of top dirt threat to Nadal like he was last spring. The 24-year-old Austrian suffered a knee injury in Indian Wells and has not been the same since, getting blown out by Nadal in Monte-Carlo and losing 6-3, 6-2 to Stefanos Tsitsipas in Barcelona. Thiem may have to get past an in-form Pablo Carreno Busta during third-round action in Madrid if he wants another shot at the world No. 1.
It is none other than Tsitsipas who is suddenly looking like the second-best player in the world on this surface. Granted, the sample size is extremely small; but it is impressive, nonetheless. The 19-year-old qualified and reached the second round in Monte-Carlo, finished runner-up to Nadal in Barcelona, and currently finds himself in the Estoril semis. Tsitsipas and Zverev—a current finalist in Munich—could go head-to-head in the marquee match of the Madrid second round. That bottom section of the bracket is also home to Miami champion John Isner, 2017 ATP Finals participant Jack Sock, and dangerous clay-courters Fabio Fognini and Pablo Cuevas.
Dimitrov and David Goffin were also among those who were happy to avoid Nadal in their half of the draw. They have already faced each other twice in 2018, seven times since the start of 2017, and may do so again in the Madrid quarterfinals. But their paths are not easy. Dimitrov likely awaits Milos Raonic in his opener, while in the third round Goffin could run into the winner of a blockbuster first-rounder between Novak Djokovic and Kei Nishikori.
Back in the top half, potential semifinal foes for Nadal include Del Potro, Kevin Anderson, Tomas Berdych, Roberto Bautista Agut, and Karen Khachanov. Del Potro has not yet played a match on clay this season and Anderson has contested only one (lost right away in Estoril to Tsitsipas), so this quarter is especially wide open.
Other first-round matchups to watch along with Djokovic-Nishikori are Sock vs. Cuevas, Berdych vs. Gasquet, Carreno Busta vs. Borna Coric, and Kyle Edmund vs. Daniil Medvedev.
First-round upset alert: Kei Nishikori over (10) Novak Djokovic. Either seeded lower than usual or altogether unseeded, Djokovic and Nishikori have been unable to avoid dreadful draws during their respective comebacks. This one is particularly bad for both, as one will be out of Madrid after the first round. The only good news is that they are on the opposite side from Nadal, so the winner will at least have some chance of eventually reaching the final. Djokovic is dominating the head-to-head series 11-2, but his return to tennis in 2018 is off to an alarmingly poor start. The 30-year-old Serb appeared to building momentum following disasters in Indian Wells and Miami with two wins in Monte-Carlo, but he took another turn for the worse with an immediate loss in Barcelona to Martin Klizan. Nishikori’s comeback is more encouraging, at least for the time being, and it is highlighted by a runner-up performance in Monte-Carlo.
Hot: Rafael Nadal, Alexander Zverev, Juan Martin Del Potro, John Isner, Pablo Carreno Busta, Hyeon Chung, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Pablo Andujar
Cold: Novak Djokovic, Jack Sock, Lucas Pouille, Gael Monfils, Damir Dzumhur
Quarterfinal predictions: Rafael Nadal over Dominic Thiem, Juan Martin Del Potro over Roberto Bautista Agut, David Goffin over Milos Raonic, and Alexander Zverev over Pablo Cuevas
Semifinals: Nadal over Del Potro and Zverev over Goffin
Final: Nadal over Zverev
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Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!
who ya got?
Rafa Nadal. Who Else
QF:
Nadal over Thiem
Del Potro over Anderson
Nishikori over Raonic
Isner over Verdasco
SF:
Nadal over Del Potro
Isner over Nishikori
Final:
Nadal over Isner
Obviously this can’t happen that Nishikori lost but these were my original picks before Djoker took him out. I would say Djoker or Goffin will be in that semifinal instead now. And if Djokovic gets there and is heating up with his form, he would probably take Isner down too. Isner can ball on clay though. Can’t sleep on him when it comes to this surface. He’s dangerous.