Madrid Masters preview and picks

Novak Djokovic missed the Mutua Madrid Open last season because of a wrist injury and he is out once again in 2015—this time simply for some rest. Is the door thus open for the likes of Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal? Federer is looking to maintain momentum from a title this past week in Istanbul, while Nadal is desperately hoping to emerge from a prolonged slump.

Mutua Madrid Open

Where: Madrid, Spain
Surface: Clay
Prize money: 4,185,405 Euros
Points: 1000

Top seed: Roger Federer
Defending champion: Rafael Nadal

Draw analysis: A Federer vs. Nadal semifinal showdown became a possibility with Friday’s draw ceremony, but both men have no reason to look that far ahead. Federer just struggled through a tough week in Istanbul, although he took advantage of a favorable draw to lift the winner’s trophy. The 33-year-old Swiss also finds himself in a section of the Madrid bracket that also includes big hitters Tomas Berdych, John Isner, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Ivo Karlovic, Lukas Rosol, and Estoril runner-up Nick Kyrgios. Federer could open against Kyrgios before potentially running into Isner.

Nadal has reached only one final (won Buenos Aires) in eight tournaments this season and he is coming off clay-court losses in Monte-Carlo (to Djokovic) and Barcelona (to Fabio Fognini). Fognini is in otherwise disastrous form, so a quarterfinal rematch between those two is unlikely at best. Should Nadal advance two rounds, more likely adversaries in the quarterfinals include Stan Wawrinka and Grigor Dimitrov.

At the bottom of the draw, Andy Murray and Philipp Kohlschreiber could go head-to-head twice in the span of three days. The familiar foes are continuing a rain-delayed final in Munich on Monday and they could square off again in the Madrid second round on Wednesday. Murray has a first-round bye as the No. 2 seed, while Kohlschreiber is an obvious favorite to win his opener against Alejandro Falla. Milos Raonic and Gael Monfils also have a strong chance of contending in this quarter of the bracket.

Kei Nishikori and David Ferrer are likely to resume their rivalry in the Madrid quarterfinals. Ferrer also seems to land near either Nadal or Nishikori in just about every event he enters—and this time it is the Japanese star. Nishikori may have to endure a tough road to the last eight, because he will almost certainly begin his week with David Goffin before possibly facing Roberto Bautista Agut. Ferrer’s only serious threat in his first two matches may be an in-form Guillermo Garcia-Lopez.

First-round upset alert: Lukas Rosol over (12) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Tsonga leads the head-to-head series 2-0, but the Tsonga of yesteryear ain’t walkin’ through that door. The 30-year-old Frenchman has played only six matches this season due to an arm injury and his comeback reached a low point last month in Monte-Carlo with a 6-4, 6-2 loss to Marcel Granollers. Neither Tsonga nor Rosol is any kind of clay-court specialist, but the unseeded Czech has captured one ATP title on the slow stuff in addition to a pair of clay-court runner-ups.

Hot: Kei Nishikori, David Ferrer, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Nick Kyrgios, Adrian Mannarino, Jack Sock, Richard Gasquet, Martin Klizan

Cold: Rafael Nadal, Stan Wawrinka, Marin Cilic, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Fabio Fognini, Ernests Gulbis

Quarterfinal predictions: Tomas Berdych over John Isner, Grigor Dimitrov over Kevin Anderson, David Ferrer over Kei Nishikori, and Milos Raonic over Gael Monfils

Semifinals: Berdych over Dimitrov and Ferrer over Raonic

Final: Ferrer over Berdych

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Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!