Madrid Masters preview and picks

Novak Djokovic is out due to his wrist injury, but a stellar field is still on hand for the Mutua Madrid Open. Nadal, of course, headlines the draw as the top seed and defending champion, and he is suddenly a clear favorite even in questionable form now that Djokovic is absent. The world No. 1 is a shocking 4-2 so far during the clay-court swing and he did not even reach the semifinals in either Monte-Carlo or Barcelona. With just three weeks to go before the French Open, Nadal—and everyone else—is desperately in search of confidence heading into the season’s second Grand Slam.

Mutua Madrid Open

Where: Madrid, Spain
Surface: Clay
Prize money: 3,671,405 Euros
Points: 1000

Top seed: Rafael Nadal

Defending champion: Rafael Nadal

Draw analysis:Djokovic’s withdrawal could be a major coup for David Ferrer, who has lost five in a row in his head-to-head series against the world No. 2. Ferrer still finds himself in a deep section of the draw, but now it is borderline wide open. Potential quarterfinal opponents for the Spaniard with Djokovic on the sideline include Munich runner-up Fabio Fognini, Marin Cilic, Ernests Gulbis, and Alexandr Dolgopolov. Although Ferrer’s half of the quarter is not as strong, he may have to get past either John Isner or Teymuraz Gabashvili in the third round.

Stanislas Wawrinka, also in the bottom half, could not have asked for much more favorable section. The third-ranked Swiss’ nearest seed is a slumping Mikhail Youzhny, so Wawrinka should have no trouble reaching the quarters as long as he can get past a likely opener against the talented and red-hot Dominic Thiem. A blockbuster quarterfinal, could pit two of 2014’s best players against each other in Wawrinka vs. Kei Nishikori. The Japanese star is slated to meet Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in the last 32, but Nishikori’s nearest seed—Milos Raonic—is not as adept on the slow stuff.

Like his countryman, Roger Federer also has to be pleased with his road to the semis (although certainly not to the final given that he is in Nadal’s half). The world No. 4 should make mincemeat out of Gilles Simon or Benoit Paire and his nearest seed—Tommy Robredo—is already out. The seeds on the other side of Federer’s section are Andy Murray and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Neither player is in good form and neither is particularly skilled on clay. A more likely quarterfinal adversary for Federer is Nicolas Almagro

At the top of the bracket, Nadal does not have many clay-court threats in his general vicinity; nobody like Ferrer and Almagro, who beat him in Monte-Carlo and Barcelona, respectively. Nadal vs. Tomas Berdych in the quarters would be intriguing, but the three-time Madrid champion owns the Czech—who just got outclassed on clay by Carlos Berlocq in the Oeiras title match. Nadal vs. Grigor Dimitrov would be even more highly anticipated. Dimitrov triumphed in Bucharest last month, tested Nadal in a four-set Australian Open thriller, and upset Djokovic at this tournament in 2013. The Bulgarian is kicking off his campaign against Pablo Carreno Busta, while Berdych potentially awaits the man who he famously dominates in Kevin Anderson.

First-round upset alert: (Q) Teymuraz Gabashvili over (9) John Isner. Isner has proven on several occasions that he is no slouch on clay, but he has played only one match on the surface this season and it resulted in an opening Houston loss to Dustin Brown. Gabashvili, meanwhile, is in fine form in 2014—already with 11 ATP-level match victories to his credit. The Russian, up to a career-high ranking of No. 52 in the world (as of Sunday) qualified in Monte-Carlo and reached the second round then advanced to the Barcelona quarterfinals. Their only previous encounter came at the 2011 Delray Beach event, in which Gabashvili beat Isner at the American’s own specialty: a third-set tiebreaker (6-4, 5-7, 7-6(13)).

Also watch out for Dolgopolov vs. Fognini and Benjamin Becker vs. Youzhny. Fognini is coming off a disappointing loss in Sunday’s Munich final to Martin Klizan. Youzhny is ice cold at the moment and Becker should have some confidence after going through qualifying even though he is not at his best on clay.

Hot: Stanislas Wawrinka, Grigor Dimitrov, Kei Nishikori, Fabio Fognini, Roberto Bautista Agut, Santiago Giraldo, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Federico Delbonis, Dominic Thiem, Teymuraz Gabashvili, Marin Cilic

Cold: Rafael Nadal, Andy Murray, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Tommy Haas, Mikhail Youzhny, Juan Monaco, Benoit Paire, Gilles Simon, Lleyton Hewitt, Dmitry Tursunov, Jerzy Janowicz

Quarterfinal predictions: Rafael Nadal over Grigor Dimitrov, Roger Federer over Nicolas Almagro, Stanislas Wawrinka over Kei Nishikori, and David Ferrer over Fabio Fognini

Semifinals: Nadal over Federer and Wawrinka over Ferrer

Final: Nadal over Wawrinka

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Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!