When Novak Djokovic battled past Dominic Thiem in two tiebreakers on Sunday afternoon at the Mutua Madrid Open, he surely figured he would soon be facing one of his contemporaries for the 54th time in his career in Sunday’s final.
Instead, Djokovic will run into an opponent 11 years his junior–who leads their head-to-head series by a grand total of 1-0.
It’s Djokovic vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas for the Madrid title after Tsitsipas stunned Rafael Nadal 6-4, 2-6, 6-3 on semifinal Saturday. The 20-year-old Greek had been 0-3 lifetime against Nadal but he has never been afraid of going up against the best players in the world. Tsitsipas defeated Djokovic 6-3, 6-7(5), 6-3 at last summer’s Toronto Masters and upset Roger Federer in four sets at the 2019 Australian Open.
The world No. 9 preceded his scalp of Nadal by beating Adrian Mannarino, Fernando Verdasco, and defending champion Alexander Zverev. He is now 27-9 this season and bidding for a second consecutive clay-court title, having lifted the Estoril trophy last week.
Djokovic’s 2019 has been more of a roller-coaster, but it is back on the rise after reaching an early zenith with an Australian Open title and then hitting some surprising depths in Indian Wells and Miami. The top-ranked Serb has advanced in Madrid with defeats of Taylor Fritz, Jeremy Chardy, and Dominic Thiem to go along with a walkover from Marin Cilic.
“I have to play the same way (as against Nadal),” Tsitsipas said. “I have to be mentally prepared for a tough match. He’s in a pretty good state of his tennis, so it won’t be easy. He had some good matches coming into the final, so I’m going to have to be ready for that match. I’m sure he wants the title as badly as me.”
This should be an entertaining one, but an edge goes to Djokovic thanks to his obvious return to form and his two previous Madrid titles. And as tough as his semifinal match was, it was not as physically or emotionally draining as that of Tsitsipas.
Pick: Djokovic in 3
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I dont see how he can lose in this kind of form. He’s got more penetration on his shots, is always pressing and is at the very least equally as strong from the back of the court and on serve. He seems to be a step ahead of everyone at the moment.
To take a leaf out of another’s book “Tsitsipas wins his 2nd clay court tournament and first masters title in Madrid.”
Tsitsipas in 3
Tsistipas has really upped his game. One thing that stands out, and that will help him against Novak as it did against Nadal, is his willingness to come to net. He also needs to serve big. In general, he will have to be aggressive and reasonably consistent.
One thing I noticed in the Novak-Thiem match was how Djokovic wasn’t afraid to go toe to toe in the rallies. And I think he won the mental game, which is why Thiem started going for so many drop shots. For someone with Novak’s timing, hitting hard doesn’t do much except ensure that the ball will come back harder. Unless you hit with power and depth, Djokovic will eat you alive.
All said, I think this may just be Tsisipas’ time. Stefanos in three.
Djoko is not even playing at the TOP of his game yet it’s still enough to beat a red hot Thiem. Djoko can manage to stay in a point for as long as possible, some of his gets, his retrieving were simply incredible. Thiem ran out of ideas on how to hit through Djoko’s defence, hence those drop shots (which Djoko was still able to get to and returned with interest!).
When Djoko is fit and healthy and feeling confident, he can just dig deep to stay in a match when he may not be playing his best tennis. I think Tsitsipas will continue to play the way he did in the SF when he faces Djoko in the final; I guess his dad and coach has done his home work and comes up with such an aggressive game plan for Tsitsipas.
I like the way he plays, even though he has beaten my fave Rafa; he’s gutsy and willing to take risk, never gives up and keeps believing that he can win (a quality that I’ve seen in Rafa all these years). He can serve really well to get himself out of troubles so often. I hope he keeps up this level if not better, when facing Djoko in the final. It’s not a sure thing that Djoko will win the title tomorrow. If Sasha at 20 could win a Masters title, why not Tsitsipas? To me Tsitsipas is more talented than Sasha, has the right mix of everything – fitness, speed, power, varieties, aggression, court craft, great from both wings (both CC and DTL), the mental focus and drive, the ambition,…
Great post, agree with your points especially that his group have come up with a plan to dismantle the top 3-4 players by being aggressive and pressing forard. Djokovic and Nadal like to slowly gain control of the point with ground strokes deep in the court and Tstitsipas’s aggressive approach is diffusing that game plan.
Sometimes its not how you play that wins its how you read your opponent that leads to a win. Djokovic is best at reading the opponent and delivering what he needs to win.
But Djoko still lost some of his matches! It’s the aggressive play that Djoko feared most, he’s not going to lose to grinders when he can grind better than any one else.
I hope Tsitispas plays his aggressive game and beats Djoko. He had played his aggressive all court tennis to beat Fed; and now Rafa; if he could do the same to beat Djoko, then he would’ve accomplished something Thiem couldn’t do; and Sasha couldn’t too – beating all the big three within a short span of time.
Djokovic is not reliable these days but still cannot see him lose this match, it’s a big match for him after the disappointments of Indian wells, Miami and Monte Carlo.
Why cant you see him losing this match? You must have a reason.
I can see him losing this match. He’s played well and shown significant improvment but Tsitispas is a fifferent kettle of fish to Theim atm and if hje up again in the final, Djokovic is going to have his work cut out because that performance wont cut it.
Novak’s serve is way better than Rafa’s. He hits deep and the speed and strength of his shots are better than Rafa’s. Nole is great returner and he can defend for ages waiting for Tsitsi to make an UE. And the conditions in Madrid suit Novak’s game perfectly.
Even though Novak is not yet at the top of his game (thank God for that, otherwise it would be 6:0 6:2 score) I really can’t see how Tsitsipas can take a set from Nole…
Novak in 2
60 62 lol Youre in fantasy land. No one would beat Tsitsipas by that score line at the moment. He’s arguably the number one player in the world on clay right now.
Not only that he’s jst shaken offhis biggest demon in Nadal.
I wish you were right and I would love to see Rafa’s conquer winning the Madrid title but it ain’t gonna happen with Novak in the equation who tends to save his best for the final matches…Rafa let Tsitispas play aggressive game most of the match…when Rafa briefly turned into a more aggressive player he took a set from Tsitsipas easily…But in the third set Rafa reverts back to his old useless defensive mode and Tsitispas breaks him without having to play aggressive but simply just waiting for Rafa to self-destroy with UEs. Novak is better than that and he is moving better than Rafa..,he will attack with his return and Tsitsi will find himself in nowhere land…
I only hope the match is competitive enough to be worth watching…I hope Tsitsipas doesn’t surrender without fight due to emotional fatigue from last night achievement…
You are right Nat, that Novak often brings out his best in the Final. He did have those back-to-back finals losses at Paris and WTF to Khachanov and Zverev, respectively. But then he obviously seemed to have fixed that problem in the AO final. I feel like when Novak needs to get a statement win, he more-often-than-not gets it.
It’s true that Djoko always brings his best in a final, but that doesn’t mean he won’t lose in a final. He did lose to Sasha at WTF final, and to Khachanov at Paris Masters final, both times Djoko was the no. 1 player and was playing well. Both times, his opponents played light out tennis to beat him, why not now on clay if Tsitsipas could play light out tennis too? Of course a big If but there’s still the possibility.
I understand where you’re coming from Natashao, but do you realize that in that incredible run that Djokovic had last summer/fall, where he was absolutely in top form, he only lost ONE match from June until November? Do you know who that one guy who beat Novak was? Stefanos Tsitsipas. So you’re argument that it will only be not a 6-0,6-2 score line because Novak has been struggling just is false, as Tsitsi beat him after he won Wimbledon, and immediately before he won Cinci, US Open, and Shanghai.
Also, I truly believed that there was no way that Tsitsi would even get more then 3 games yesterday against Rafa, let alone take a set or the match, and look what happened there?… Also, unlike with Rafa, Tsitsi HAS beaten Djokovic, in their only meeting, less than a year ago, and it wasn’t slumping Novak. And it wasn’t slumping Novak! The way I see it, if Tsitsi could take out THAT Novak- on Novak’s best surface nonetheless- what makes you so certain he would go down so meekly to Novak? What evidence do you have to believe this? I mean, I guess it’s possible, as anything is possible. If he beat a much more in-form Novak on hard court in a tough 3-setter, what makes you think he will suddenly not even be competitive against a Novak who hasn’t won anything in 3 months?
That being said, while it should be a competitive match, I’m still picking Novak in 3. Just because I can never pick any of these “young guns” to beat Rafa and Novak back-to-back at one clay tournament until I actually see it done first. Novak has a chance here to really give himself a big confidence boost for RG. To be honest, I want Tsitsi to win so badly. Tsitsi has also had more grueling matches than Novak, physically and mentally. I would love for him to show us that he’s ready to take that next step toward greatness and get a Masters title.
Yeah, I agree it won’t be a beat down. Tsitsipas is better than that and I think if he loses, it’ll be in three sets or in two TB or 7-5 sets.
I think he should be playing his attacking and net rushing game with some S&V thrown in. Djoko will as usual play his incredible retrieving game with unbelievable gets and returns.
It’ll be interesting to see how Tsitsipas tries to break the incredible defence of Djoko.
Great post. Agree with your points. This idea that tnhe top players will just win because they will turn up as they have in previous finals doesnt cut it for me. Its best to look deeper than that and provide further reasoning in support of your view. This will make your predictons more accurate and you’ll tip upsets more often as well.
@kevin,
First, to be clear, I would love to see Tsitsi lifts the trophy, but…
My reasoning is the following:
Rafa is not there yet, bug question mark if he will at all manage to reach his top form on clay this year…he is playing sub-par tennis for his own standards and yet had BIG 16 break points i.e, chances to break Tsitsi. Unlike Rafa if Nole gets 16 break chances he won’t squander it with his powerful serve! Also, Rafa’s serve is his weakness maybe more than ever and Tsitsipas took advantage of it by attacking his serve with aggressive returns. Rafa most of the time was in defensive mode…Tsitsi won’t be able to construct aggressive game as easily with Novak thus he will be unable to play his attacking tennis and we all know who of these two is more likely to make an error in long rallies…
Tsitsipas did not even serve great last night and yet managed to win relatively high percentage on second serve since Rafa was unable to attack his second serve…I can only imagine what Novak will do with those second serves…
Also, unfortunately, most opponents who beat Rafa (except for Fog who has done it in GS so he is experienced in this sense) end up not showing in their next match or just hugely underperform… it’s probably due to the fact that it takes a lot of effort both physically and mentally to beat Rafa so they are wasted and incapable of repeating the same…
However, I hope Tsitsi proves me wrong!
…”with his powerful RETURN”…
Tsitsipas is NOT the number one player on clay! Thiem would have a better cle to that title. He has beaten Rafa in at least one clay tournament in the last two years. Those were the only losers Rafa had in the clay season. Thiem has been in the semis and final of RG the last few years. Thiem was the second best player on clay after Rafa. Now that Rafa is not in his best form, Thiem deserves to be recognized as the best clay player.
This business of jumping on the bandwagon with a player, just baffles me. Also the utter nonsense that RG is on Tsitsipas’ racket! It’s not like Thiem is going anywhere!
Thiem would have a better CLAIM to that title. *
Agreed, NNY!
Putting Tsitispas as the main contender for RG title with all due respect is just insulting people’s tennis intelligence 😀
Who said Rafa wasn’t still the fav for RG? Or that it was on Sitsi’s racquet ? Its not on anyones racquet , very open.
My heart says Tpas…but my brain says Joker…in 2.
Djoko to win 6-3 6-2. Vamos Nole!
Joker return is just insane, I will go with djokovic in 2 nevertheless greek beats Nadal
Nadal was pissed off because he hates losing to anybody: at the same time he was not particularly bothered either. He clearly was not prepared to leave his guts on the court for this match with RG coming up.
Tsitsipas has been smashed in betting.
What a get by Djoko! Vamos Nole!
Djoker is the favorite for Roland Garros. That will be a serious step forward to GOAT claim.
Is anybody else as irritated as I am by the condescending way Djokovic applauds his opponents when they play a a good shot and wins a point against him. I’ve never seen anybody else do this.
No
ed,
I tried to respond to your comment but it would not post. I have been having trouble getting on this site.
I was going to agree with you. The thing that irritates me to no end is the ritual Novak goes through after he wins a match. Throwing his hands up to the crowd. It is cringe worthy. I also don’t like it when he applauds his opponent for hitting a good shot.
Today’s match was not a surprise. Novak was too good. It would not have been pretty has this Rafa met Novak in the final. Tsitsipas can come back down to earth.
Very cynical, whats wrong with applauding an opponents point? Nadal celebrates hugely when he hits a winner, as if rubbing it in .
Hello! As Kevin said, it’s only when he is winning that he does it!
Look who is having a little hissy fit! Then the need to trash Rafa!
You’ve picked that up wrong, try a more balanced view. You might as well trash the winners and losers ‘ gracious’ speeches , including Rafas.
Hissy fit? Not really.You’re the one who trashed Noles amazing achievement .
I have seen Djoker applaud Rafa’s shots shwn Rafa was wiining and eventually won as well. Go and watch the highlights of Rafa-Djoker Rome last year and you will get a clue.
Yeah, Ed, he only does the racquet clap when he is winning. That’s why it often feel condescending. If he did it more when he was losing or in an even match, I’m not sure if it would bother me quite as much. But since he always does it when he is rolling, it definitely feels condescending. I remember Novak doing it a couple times against Stan at either AO 2014 or RG Final 2015 when he had a comfortable lead. Then, once Stan had evened then match and it became competitive, there was no more clapping from Novak…
Most players just break their racquets when losing…
Tsistsi heating up now. One dip from Nole can give him the set
Tsits nothing like yesterday
🙂 in your words. He is the same as yesterday. Nole is better. No excuses 😉
yesterday he was Borg-like
or Rafa was un Rafa like 😉 you cannot have your cake and eat it too
No comparison with Borg except Tsitsi looks like him.
I wouldn’t even begin to compare Borg with Nadal
Vamos Nole! The crucial break!!
Djoko is the clear fav for rg n second career slam means he goes above rafa though will be 1 slam less…rafa has to buck up to prevent it from happening…but rafa is so off his usual clay self..don’t even see him making the final
If not Rafa, let it be Nole!
Why..why not a younger player like thiem
Coz no one is more deserving than Djoko having beaten the men to be the man on his opponents best surfaces. It seems ridiculous that Roger and Novak both have only one RG title considering how Roger lucked his out.
I don’t think Djoko is more deserving to win the FO title than say Fed. Fed made five FO finals, losing four to Rafa, that means he’s stopped by Rafa only, in the final. Djoko reached four finals and had lost to Rafa and Stan, that means he’s not stopped by Rafa only in the final, he was beaten by someone else not named Rafa. How’s he more deserving than Fed to win a second FO?
Fed didn’t beat Rafa to win his FO title but Djoko didn’t beat Rafa either when he won his in 2016, so why Djoko is more deserving for a second title? He also had made one less FO final than Fed, how’s he more deserving?
Novak’s claim to being a superior clay court player to Federer rests on his performance in masters 1000s (plus his several clay court victories over Nadal), not on his performance at RG, where Fed probably has the edge.
Not comparing who’s more superior on clay between Fed and Djoko, but based on their results at the FO; also Fed had the misfortune of meeting a Rafa ( in his heydays on clay) so often at the FO. Fed almost unbeatable at FO to reach the final there five times only to run into Rafa in the finals on four occasions.
Djoko struggled more often (than Fed) in the earlier rounds before reaching the business end at the FO, and I’m not sure Rafa in 2014 was better than Rafa during his heydays.
Imo, if anyone deserves a second FO, it would be Fed instead of Djoko. Djoko didn’t manage to beat Rafa at FO2012, when Rafa was most vulnerable, after losing three straight slams finals to Djoko. Fed didn’t have the luxury of meeting a vulnerable Rafa at the FO.
Djoker was not at his best in 2012 post US hardcourt season. Something was cooking in his life and he mentioned that after losing to Wimby to Fed when even Fed was having back issues (Fed played 5 sets in very early round, if I remember).
So what if Djoko wasn’t at his best in 2012? Rafa wasn’t at his best either in 2012, or even second half of 2011. It’s not like Djoko was playing so badly that he lost to anyone! He’s still winning his matches and getting to finals!
Rafa also wasn’t at his best at some of his FOs even when he won them -2014 for example or even 2011. He was close to, or at his best during the FOs from 2006-2008 when Fed had the luck of meeting him there in the final.
Only rafa is responsible for this rise of Novak..he lost that wimby semi to him n it totally changed Novak..
haha! interesting. But then by that logic Roger is responsible for the rise of Rafa after the wimby 2008 final. Rafa is responsible for the resurrection of Roger after the 2017 AO final.
In fact there is a stat that Novak has only lost one match to the worlds top ten in the last 18 tries, to Zverev. So he is steamrolling everyone
But he’s losing to non top ten players like Khachanov, Agut, Kohl and Medvedev this year! He’s just less consistent compared to his heydays.
Yeah, Sanju. It really is incredible how much of a fire that Wimby SF against Rafa lit under Novak… For more than 2 years leading up to that match, Novak had been a shell of himself, partly due to injury and partly due to a lack of his signature mental toughness. He just wasn’t very good for a couple years. Then, out of nowhere, he suddenly looked like the old Novak in that SF. On one hand I’m grateful for it because we ended up getting one of the greatest matches we’ve ever seen. (I put it as the 3rd greatest of their rivalry, behind 2012 AO and 2013 RG). On the other hand, I would have personally been more happy to have seen Novak sort of fade into oblivion, if I’m being totally honest here. But that was truly wishful thinking, as Novak is on pace to end up with the best argument for GOAT when all is said and done. There is still plenty of time for Fedal or others to prevent that from happening, but Novak has been trending upward legacy-wise, and the ball is in his court so-to-speak.
From here on out, every Slam that goes by that Novak does not win is a legacy-win for Fedal. And obviously any Slam that Rafa or Fed wins is crucial. While total slam count should not be the end-all-be-all, unfortunately too many people view it that way. Being 3 slams ahead of Djoko, as opposed to 2, would really go a long way for Rafa.
We all know that Rafa is still capable of beating anyone, including Djoko, to win RG 2019. He can absolutely do it. The odds are just more stacked against him like they were in 2014/2015/2016. He still managed to pull it out in 2014, and he can do that again. Given that Novak is 32, for all we know his chances could be running low, too. So trying to keep Novak to a one Slam net gain per season would be ideal for Rafa. Unfortunately for Fed, I think his chances of being able add to his tally are all but gone. Barring injury, I think his only really legitimate shot to get one more would be at Wimbledon this year. I mean, I gotta give it to Fed- it’s remarkable that he was able to keep the difference in slams the same as it was in 2014. If someone told me in 2015 that Rafa was going to add 3 more majors to his tally by over the next four years, I would have said “of course!”. But I would have assumed that that would mean that he would be tied with Fed at 17 in 2019. If someone had told me that Fed would ALSO add 3 more majors to HIS tally, thus keeping himself 3 ahead of Rafa, I would have told them they were insane. So Fed and Rafa both did really well to put some space between them and Novak over the last few years, but then in only six months time, Novak completely erased that 3 title gain that Fedal had built.
So yeah, if someone had told me had told me after RG 2016 that in 2019 Fed and Rafa would still be 5 and 2 major titles clear of Novak, respectively, I would never have believed it. Not with how insanely dominant Novak had been from Wimbledon 2014 through RG 2016.
Kevin, no offense, but I put your “we all know that Rafa is capable of…” in the same category as your hunches that Thiem was going to destroy Federer and Rafa was going to destroy Tsitsipas in Madrid. (To be fair, I picked Rafa as well in that match, and Tsitsi to beat Novak in 3).
You might say I’m biased, but I’ll bet a lot of even Rafa fans aren’t so sure that Rafa will win in Paris this year. Sure, he could beat Novak. Fed could also beat either of them, based on what I’ve seen so far. Anything is possible. But the reality of the clay season so far is that Rafa has been beat by three different players not named Novak or Roger. He’s shown flashes of very good (not, imo, world beating) play, along with some frankly bad play. He hasn’t been consistent, he hasn’t had the FH weapon, and he hasn’t served that well. His track record at RG has been incredible, but so had been his track record in MC and Barcelona.
Regarding Novak, I am still very doubtful that he will catch Fed’s slam record -though if he does I will not personally mind that much. I’m a big fan of Djokovic. I think there are too many very good young players coming up. I do think, however, that he has a decent chance of getting within 1 slam of Nadal, maybe tying him.
If anything, it’s those people in charged at Wimbledon or the AELTC who are the culprit for helping Djoko revive his career! Well, they’re always in favour of Fed, but by their stupid biased arrangements, instead of getting a Fedal final on their tenth anniversary after their epic 2008 final, they got a damp squid straight set boring final, and all the criticisms that come pouring in at them for their stupid scheduling and court arrangement.
It’s good rafa lost yesterday seeing the way Novak played today..rafa would not have won more than 3 games per set.
Troll me if you want but I am reconciled to rafa being third in slam tally n it’s painful but that’s how it’s looking to be now ..sad but true .rafa winning this rg is crucial or Novak not winning it..
Yeah best thing would be for Rafa to win RG and Novak to win the other two so that both get closer to the slam total of 20.
Some of us would beg to differ.
vmk1, don’t see why it’s best that Rafa only wins at RG while Djoko get to win at both Wimbledon and USO. If Rafa is fit and playing his best tennis, to me it’ll be best that Rafa wins all of them! He came close to winning FO/Wim B2B last year, if not for the stupid scheduling of the SFs.
@Jim Courier: djokovic is king still.
@edwina: don’t hate djokovic, don’t spread hate. nobody mentions dull’s butt picking.