As usual, my preseason predictions stunk. But that’s what makes it fun, of course.
Ten months in advance it’s just about impossible to pick the eventual Nitto ATP Finals field in any kind of correct order, and I erred wildly on guys like Alexander Zverev, Kevin Anderson, and obviously Andy Murray. With the London festivities finally on the immediate horizon, let’s take a look back at my preseason picks–and brief comments–for the year-end championship qualifiers, in order:
1. Roger Federer – “Based on both his own level and what may be a relative lack of competition, he should be in line for at least one more (Grand Slam title) in 2018.”
My faith in Federer was justified. He did, in fact, win one more major (Australian Open) and likely would have contended for the No. 1 ranking if not for Novak Djokovic’s sudden resurgence.
2. Dominic Thiem – “Three Masters 1000s on the slow stuff plus the French Open should once again be more than enough for the 24-year-old Austrian to accrue a boatload of points. And he is bound to get better on other surfaces at some point….”
Thiem did improve on hard courts–just not enough. He had a good year but not a great one, and Rafael Nadal’s clay-court dominance plus Djokovic’s late-season surge prevented the Austrian from climbing this high.
3. Grigor Dimitrov – “The only question with Dimitrov is if he can build on his stellar 2017 campaign and take the next natural step in his career, which would be winning a Grand Slam.”
No comment.
4. Rafael Nadal – “Nadal is limping into 2018 with yet another dreaded knee injury…. If he creates a smart schedule for himself and dominates clay to the extent that he does not have to chase points elsewhere, he should remain in the top four.”
As predicted, the Spaniard endured another injury-plagued campaign. But he was good enough when healthy to prevent a fall out of the top two.
5. Andy Murray – “If he can play close to a full season in decent health, Murray will be back in the top five.”
Well, he did not play close to a full season in decent health; not even close.
6. David Goffin – “Goffin may not have the firepower to win a slam, but he is otherwise a stone-cold lock to remain in outstanding form.”
I maintain that Goffin would have been back in London if healthy. Unfortunately, he has been snakebitten by all kinds of weird injuries.
7. Novak Djokovic – “Nadal, Murray, and Djokovic all have No. 1 potential along with Federer if they get healthy and stay healthy. Of course, that is a big ‘if’ right now. Djokovic is 2018’s biggest wild card.”
Djokovic absolutely did have No. 1 potential and was 2018’s biggest–and best–wild card. Of course, he was even better than anyone could have anticipated.
8. Juan Martin Del Potro – It’s not often that Del Potro is one of the healthier players on tour, but that is the case [heading into 2018]…. This time around, all systems are go for Delpo right from the start.”
Picking Del Potro to get through a full season healthy enough to be in the top eight is a bold call. It happened with room to spare, but a late injury has kept him out of London.
Alternates
9. Alexander Zverev – “The fast-rising German still went into his year-end championship debut at No. 3 in the world…. But sustaining that kind of success will be tough…if most or all of the presently injured stars come back with a bang.”
I had to make at least a few bold predictions and this one did not pay off. With Murray out and Djokovic slumping in the first half of the season, Zverev racked up a ton of points to comfortably coast into the year-end championship.
10. Nick Kyrgios – “If he can get off to a strong start by treating the Melbourne faithful to some Australian Open heroics, the 22-year-old could be off to the races. All signs point to Kyrgios have the best season of his career.”
One of these years he is going to put it all together (maybe?!?!). To say it wasn’t this year would be a gross understatement.
Actual final standings going into London
1. Novak Djokovic
2. Rafael Nadal (WD)
3. Roger Federer
4. Juan Martin Del Potro (WD)
5. Alexander Zverev
6. Kevin Anderson
7. Marin Cilic
8. Dominic Thiem
9. Kei Nishikori
10. John Isner
Did not mention
6. Kevin Anderson – Most probably figured that Anderson would take a step back following his breakthrough run to the 2017 U.S. Open final. Instead, he kept climbing.
7. Marin Cilic – As predicted, Cilic started to decline in 2018. But the decline started late enough such that he was still in London position from start to finish.
9. Kei Nishikori – Nishikori was on no one’s Nitto ATP Finals radar when he started the year injured and on the Challenger circuit. A late-season surge silenced the naysayers.
10. John Isner – Isner had never done enough at slams nor had won big enough titles to qualify for the year-end championship. That changed in Miami (title), at Wimbledon (semis), and at the U.S. Open (quarters).
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enjoy!
Um, without Djokovic’s resurgence mid-year, Nadal wins Wimbledon – he came very close as it was – and probably remains #1 despite playing only about half the year.
True. Had Rafa won Wimbledon, he would remain as no.1 and YE no.1 (7480 – 720 + 2000 = 8760) and Djoko would be no 2 even if he has won WTF (8045 – 2000 + 720 + 1500 = 8265). How one match can change everything!
I must say Rafa was playing at a high level despite coming back from hip injury. Imo his serve was affected by that injury resulting in him not being able to serve well to shorten points, hence he had to grind to beat Delpo at Wimbledon, and had to grind to beat his opponents at the USO resulting in another knee injury.
It was another tough season for Rafa,in terms of fitness. He had so many injuries on the HC which is really concerning at this stage of his career. I think that it´s more than time for Rafa to start skipping some hard court events,although I’m almost sure he won´t make it at is own will. He should start skipping IW/MIAMI and play Rio,as clay is easier on his body.
After the USO,he should just go straight to London or at most play one tournament before. If he’s healthy,he still can perform at a very high level at all Slams,as we’ve seen this year.
Now,more than ever,the time has come for Rafa to be extremely careful picking his own battles. He won’t be around for much longer if he keeps trying to play as much as he can!
Fed may or may not become no.1 has there been no Djoko resurgence and despite Rafa being injured. Fed was stopped by Djoko twice, at Cincy final and at Paris SF, so he may get another 400 points from Cincy with no Djoko in the final, provided be could beat Cilic instead. At Paris, with no Djoko he still had to beat Cilic and then Khachanov, so it’s no guarantee that he would win the title, so he maybe could get another 240 points reaching the final, all in all he would have 6,660 instead of 6,020 now.
He then has to win another 1,000 points at least, at WTF if he wants to surpass Rafa to be YE no.1, possible but has to depend on how others play too at WTF.
Fun review of predictions….can’t wait for London….Fed wins it all!
I’m sorry for Nadal’s loss to Djoko at Wimbledon. It was a bit unfair. Stupid decision to let the match be replayed with closed roof on a sunny day. They shouldn’t even ask players’ opinion in that situation.
And Djokovic had to deal with an overcooked Anderson in the final.
If only all fed fans were as fair as you Eugene! Although both Benny and Kevin are great people as well..
PS I totally agree with you! And think how different things might have looked if the match was played outside. Rafa would have 2 slams and still be #1. Maybe also if Nole had lost that match he would not have had the confidence to go on and win the uso….(although I am glad he is back strong and playing well…)
You are very kind Amy. Benny and Kevin are great indeed.
Let’s not forget hawk. He is a Fed fan ‘sometimes’ too 🙂
You are very kind Amy,thank you.
Benny and Kevin are great indeed. Let’s not forget Hawk- he’s sometimes a Fed fan too 😄
And when Nadal is back in the game, we need Joe Smith as well to provide a fair balance here.
Imagine after the big 3 retire, Fedal fans from this site might share the same idol/s from the new generation.
Funny. I couldn’t find my 1st post, and then suddenly they both show up.