Kitzbuhel final preview and pick: Thiem vs. Goffin

A red-hot David Goffin will put his winning streak on the line when he goes up against Dominic Thiem in Saturday’s Kitzbuhel final. Both men are looking for their first career ATP title.

David Goffin and Dominic Thiem will be squaring off for the third time in their careers and for the third time this season when they battle for the bet-at-home Cup title on Sunday afternoon. Goffin leads the head-to-head series 2-0 thanks to a 3-6, 6-1, 7-6(1) qualifying win on the hard courts of Acapulco and a more routine 6-4, 6-2 victory on the grass of Queen’s Club.

The ATP World Tour is currently witnessing an epic hot streak from Goffin; certainly the hottest of his career. He has won 19 consecutive matches and 38 of his last 39 sets since losing to Andy Murray in the Wimbledon first round. The 78th-ranked Belgian captured three straight Challenger titles and so far in Kitzbuhel he has taken out Kenny De Schepper, Philipp Kohlschreiber, Paolo Lorenzi, and Maximo Gonzalez. Goffin’s set streak was snapped at 36 by Gonzalez on Friday, but the 23-year-old rebounded to prevail 5-7, 6-4, 6-3.

Thiem cooled off on grass, but–like Goffin–he is on fire on the slow stuff. This week’s No. 5 seed and home favorite has earned 17 of his 23 career ATP-level match wins this season and 12 of those 17 have come on clay. He reached the round of 16 in both Barcelona and Madrid as a qualifier. Interestingly, Thiem is 17-1 in qualifying matches this year–with his one and only loss coming to Goffin. The 50th-ranked Austrian punched his ticket into the Kitzbuhel quarterfinals by defeating Joao Souza, Jiri Vesely, Marcel Granollers, and Juan Monaco.

“I lost my first Futures final as well as my first Challenger final,” Thiem reflected. “I hope that this [trend] will end tomorrow here in Kitzbuhel…. David has plenty of confidence; he’s been playing unbelievably well during the last few weeks.”

Both men are competing in their first-ever ATP final, so there is no edge in that department. Thiem has home-court advantage, but that could work in both ways if you factor additional pressure into the equation. Although Challenger finals are nowhere near the same or even similar, Goffin has still played for–and won–three trophies since Wimbledon and there is something to be said for that experience. Additionally, Thiem has elongated strokes and likes to have time to set up for his shots. Clay helps in that regard, but Goffin takes the ball early and hits extremely flat. He is an expert at taking time away from opponents. Throw in the fact that Thiem had to play two matches on Friday whereas Goffin contested just one, and the nod has to go to Goffin.

Pick: Goffin in 3

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