Milos Raonic crashed what would have been a Big 4 semifinal party in Indian Wells and his reward is a date with Roger Federer on Saturday. The winner will face either Novak Djokovic or Andy Murray for the title.
A 34th installment of the Roger Federer vs. Rafael Nadal rivalry came within one point of becoming a reality. Instead, Federer will be going up against an opponent who has been an even more familiar foe since the start of 2012.
Saturday’s second semifinal at the BNP Paribas Open will place Milos Raonic on the opposite side of the net from the 33-year-old Swiss. The head-to-head series stands at 8-1 in favor of Federer, who is 5-1 versus Raonic on hard courts after prevailing 6-4, 6-7(2), 6-4 in this season’s Brisbane title match. Raonic’s lone victory came via a 7-6(5), 7-5 decision in last fall’s Paris quarterfinals.
Federer has been cruising as he bids for a fifth career title in the desert. His record at the event stands at 51-1 following straight-set victories this fortnight over Diego Schwartzman, Andreas Seppi, Jack Sock, and Tomas Berdych. The world No. 2 is now 15-1 for his 2015 campaign, with no other blemish aside from an Australian Open hiccup against Seppi.
Raonic was similarly dominant through three rounds, taking out Simone Bolelli, Alexandr Dolgopolov, and Tommy Robredo. That set up a showdown with Nadal, who had three match points on Friday before succumbing to the No. 6 seed 4-6, 7-6(10), 7-5.
As impressive as that triumph was for Raonic, it seems to be more of an aberration than the rule. He is still a combined 2-18 lifetime against Federer, Nadal, and Novak Djokovic. His best chance of scoring a second upset of Federer would come on a fast indoor hard court. On this relatively slow surface with the 17-time slam champion in outstanding form, Raonic’s chances are not encouraging.
Pick: Federer in 2
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