Indian Wells R4 previews and predictions: Medvedev vs. Dimitrov, Paul vs. Nardi

A blockbuster fourth-round matchup in Indian Wells pits Daniil Medvedev against Grigor Dimitrov on Wednesday. Luca Nardi will also be back on the court after he famously upset Novak Djokovic on Monday night.

(4) Daniil Medvedev vs. (13) Grigor Dimitrov

Medvedev and Dimitrov will be squaring off for the 10th time in their careers when they clash in round four of the BNP Paribas Open on Wednesday. The head-to-head series stands at 6-3 in Medvedev’s favor, but Dimitrov won both their most recent meeting (in a third-set tiebreaker at the Paris Masters last fall) and their previous Indian Wells encounter (4-6, 6-4, 6-3 three years ago, also in the round of 16).

Another victory for 32-year-old Bulgarian would hardly be a surprise. He loves playing in Indian Wells and is in outstanding form all around right now. Dimitrov’s dominant wins over Alexandre Muller and Adrian Mannarino have his season record at 14-3. Medvedev made a run to the final of this tournament in 2023, but he made no secret about his disdain for the conditions and after beating Sebastian Korda 6-4, 5-7, 6-3 on Monday he once again expressed his displeasure. Dimitrov would have a good chance to beat Medvedev pretty much anywhere based on their respective current levels, and the desert is no exception.

Pick: Dimitrov in 3

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(LL) Luca Nardi vs. 17) Tommy Paul

The biggest upset of the year–and one of the biggest in recent tennis history–took place on Monday night, when Nardi stunned Novak Djokovic 6-4, 3-6, 6-3. To say that it came absolutely out of nowhere would be a gross understatement. The 20-year-old Italian is ranked No. 123 in the world and he needed a lucky-loser spot in the main draw after losing in qualifying. In his previous tournament, Nardi lost to world No. 462 Ramkumar Ramanathan in the Bengaluru Challenger.

Nardi understandably called his win over Djokovic a “miracle.” Beating Paul would be much less of a shock, of course, but at the same time it will be extremely difficult. It’s never easy for any underdog player to follow up such a monumental result; plus Paul is in awesome form. The 17th-ranked American has already reached two finals during this U.S. swing, lifting the trophy in Dallas and finishing runner-up in Delray Beach. Paul has already defeated two red-hot opponents in Indian Wells, taking care of Alex Michelsen 6-2, 6-2 and Ugo Humbert 6-4, 6-4. Even if Nardi continues to play well, Paul will likely be too tough.

Pick: Paul in 2

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