Miami champion Hubert Hurkacz is looking for more Masters 1000 success in Indian Wells and he will face Frances Tiafoe on Monday. Denis Shapovalov and Aslan Karatsev are also aiming for a place in round four.
Frances Tiafoe vs. (8) Hubert Hurkacz
You have to like Hurkacz’s chances of making a deep run at the BNP Paribas Open. He is 15-3 on American hard courts this season, including titles in Delray Beach and Miami. In his only previous Indian Wells appearance, Hurkacz advanced to the quarterfinals before losing to Roger Federer. The world No. 12, who is currently in position to qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals, is off and running this time around in the desert with a straight-set victory over Alexei Popyrin on Saturday.
Up next for Hurkacz on Monday is a fourth career encounter with Tiafoe, who leads the head-to-head series 2-1. However, they most recently faced each other at the 2019 Winston-Salem event and Hurkacz prevailed 4-6, 7-6(1), 6-1. Tiafoe earned his spot in this matchup by beating Benoit Paire 6-4, 6-4 and fellow American Sebastian Korda 6-0, 6-4. Of course, Paire and Korda have been totally out of sorts so this is an entirely different matchup for Tiafoe. A more consistent Hurkacz should have the edge in what will likely be a competitive, high-quality contest.
Pick: Hurkacz in 3
Denis Shapovalov vs. (19) Aslan Karatsev
Both Hurkacz and Shapovalov reached the Wimbledon semifinals. Whereas Hurkacz has remained in decent enough form since then, Shapovalov has been a complete disaster. The 13th-ranked Canadian exited right away in Gstaad, Toronto, and Montreal, lost 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 to Lloyd Harris in round three of the U.S. Open, got blown out by Daniil Medvedev 6-4, 6-0 at the Laver Cup, and fell to Cameron Norrie 6-3, 6-1 in his second San Diego match. Shapovalov needs all the help he can get right now and he received some on Saturday when Vasek Pospisil retired due to a back injury early in the opening set.
Shapovalov and Karatsev will be going head-to-head for the first time in their careers on Monday. Karatsev has also cooled off a bit since a hot start to the year, but he reached the U.S. Open third round (lost to Jenson Brooksby in five sets) and also won two matches in San Diego. The 23rd-ranked Russian opened in Indian Wells with a 6-0, 6-2 destruction of Salvatore Caruso. Shapovalov would much prefer faster conditions, because at the moment he is not playing well enough to hang with Karatsev from the baseline.
Pick: Karatsev in 2
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