Indian Wells R4 previews and picks: Nadal vs. Zverev, Gasquet vs. Cilic

Rafael Nadal will continue his Indian Wells campaign on Wednesday against a red-hot Alexander Zverev. Richard Gasquet and Marin Cilic are also aiming for a place in the quarterfinals.

(4) Rafael Nadal vs. Alexander Zverev

Nadal and Zverev will be going head-to-head for the first time in their careers when they clash in round four of the BNP Paribas Open on Wednesday afternoon. It has already been a stellar tournament for Zverev, and even by Nadal’s recent standards it has been relatively productive. Zverev booked his spot in the last 16 by taking out Ivan Dodig, Grigor Dimitrov, and Gilles Simon. The 18-year-old German came back from a set and a break down against Dodig, recovered from a break deficit against Dimitrov in the third set, and then clobbered Simon 6-2, 6-2. Nadal battled past Gilles Muller 6-2, 2-6, 6-4 before avenging his Australian Open defeat at the hands of Fernando Verdasco with a 6-0, 7-6(9) victory.

The fifth-ranked Spaniard is coming off consecutive setbacks on the Golden Swing–to Dominic Thiem in the Buenos Aires semifinals and to Pablo Cuevas in the Rio de Janeiro semis. Although he is in fine form for the most part, Zverev also needed a strong performance in Indian Wells to erase the taste of defeat. He lost a pair of Davis Cup rubbers to the Czech Republic’s Tomas Berdych and Lukas Rosol, the latter in a decisive fifth showdown. Zverev has the exact kind of game that can seriously trouble Nadal, with a huge serve and forehand to go along with a solid two-handed backhand. He also moves extremely well for a man of his size (6’6”). If the world No. 58 can avoid long rallies and shorten the match, he may be able to hit Nadal off the court before stamina becomes an issue.

Pick: Zverev in 2

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(8) Richard Gasquet vs. (10) Marin Cilic

Gasquet’s season got off to a late start because of a back injury, but he is making up for lost time heading into a fourth-round contest against Cilic in Indian Wells. Gasquet, who missed the Australian summer, captured a title in the first tournament of his year (Montpellier) before getting stopped by an on-fire Nick Kyrgios in the Marseille quarterfinals. So far in the desert he he has taken out Nicolas Mahut in straight sets and Alexandr Dolgopolov via a 2-6, 6-2, 6-1 decision.
Gaquet 1
Up next for the 10th-ranked Frenchman is a third career meeting with Cilic. Gasquet has taken both of their previous encounters, each at the Masters 1000 level. He prevailed 7-5, 6-4 on the clay courts of Monte-Carlo in 2013 and 7-5, 6-3 last summer in Cincinnati. Cilic has endured physical problems of his own in recent times, but lackluster results in 2016 can only be attributed to poor play. The 10th-seeded Croat brought a disappointing 9-7 record with him into Indian Wells but it now stands at 11-7 following straight-set defeats of Ryan Harrison and Leonardo Mayer. Based on current form, Gasquet should have a relatively clear edge in this one.

Pick: Gasquet in 2

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187 Comments on Indian Wells R4 previews and picks: Nadal vs. Zverev, Gasquet vs. Cilic

  1. Gasquet in 2… looking forward to watching this match, then Rafa in 2…

    Getting better but Zverev can definitely hit him off the court, but to do so consistently might be an issue

  2. Gasquet in 3 and Rafa in 2 !
    Cilic may be in bad form but I think he can still snatch a set !
    With Rafa , I think his experience will enable him to blow Zverev off the court even though clearly Zverev has been playing much better.

  3. Nadal in 2, Gasquet in 2.

    Nice to see the next generation taking over, but Nadal is very mad about the accusations of that French politician about taking dope and he will win motivated by anger.

      • Ricky (AT 3:05 PM),

        What?! The former French minister of sport Roselyne Bachelot lied ONLY nine days ago (on March 7) that Rafa was kept off the court for seven months due to a positive test in 2012.
        “They just don’t reveal positive tests or the sanctions given in tennis,” Bachelot said in French. “…like the famous injury of Rafael Nadal that kept him off the court for seven months — it’s very certainly due to a positive test.” [Source: The New York Times]

  4. I think that rafa’s experience will get him the win. I do think that Zverev can take a set off Rafa. Zverev is the kind of opponent who can give Rafa trouble. But I think Rafa will get it done. I am just not sure if it’s going to be 2 or 3 sets.

    Gasquet should beat Cilic in 2 sets.

  5. Stan is not there but not there. He looks lost. Meanwhile, Goffin marches on; he got the first set 6-3. And Goffin is a break up in the 2nd set. 2-0. Thought this would be straightforward for Stan. But no.

  6. Definitely a bad day at the office for WaWa. His serve has gone southwards and he his spraying errors galore.
    Goffin has already broken his serve in the 2nd set.

    Cilic has taken first set – so much for all those forecasts Gasquet in 2 sets.

  7. Maybe mangling that racquet helped? Or?… because he suddenly roars back. Looks like he’s in it now. Stan breaks again and will serve to even the set.

    • ed (AT 7:10 PM),
      There is a thread: “Indian Wells R4 previews and picks: Wawrinka vs. Goffin, Berdych vs. Raonic.” 🙂

  8. I admit to feeling a tad anxious about this match. Just hoping his nerves don’t get the better of him, particularly if they get tnto TBs.

  9. Really wish rafa’s second serve had improved 🙁 it is below average…

    Anyway, two solid holds! keep going , rafa….

    I reckon he will will step back in a few service games to return serves.

    Zverev is out there with a strategy. Playing more aggressive than he usually does…

  10. He has a Sampras-like second serve ! Very dangerous package this youngster.

    Rafa winning free points on first serves…otherwise, his ground strokes have been misfiring

  11. He is totally outplaying Rafa right now. Superior first serve, far superior second serve, better ROS, and more aggressive groundstrokes.

    Rafa is the underdog here.

  12. that code violation instilled some anger in rafa! HUGEE backhand down the line.

    Zverev’s first serve return has been vulnerable. Rafa needs to find some rhythm in return games….he can hold on to his serve

  13. Rafa’s raised his level since losing his serve..he has gotten close but Zverev’s serve has bailed Zverev out of trouble.

    I hope he throws in a couple of double faults. It is not fair to serve second serves at 115 mph…

  14. yes. but watching on my laptop in bed so typing is a problem, I was right to feel some foreboding. Zev Minor is on the rampage.

  15. SO PROUD OF YOU RAFA! he is not intimidated on the court. He looks determined to win . determined to play at a high level. He is on fire now

  16. Zverev’s forehand counterpunching is not so great…rafa can and will dictate more rallies…It is just a matter of getting into more rallies

  17. WOW! PURE TALENT! GENIUS. What a half volley pick up for a scrumptious winner.

    And now justtt missed the forehand DTL :/ BP down again

  18. Rafa will punish him in long rallies. I can see some clear weak points in the German’s baseline game…

    I hope rafa keeps fighting the nerves and Zverev keeps missing the targets on his serves

  19. VAMOSSS! Love the way he fought off the adversity there. He just stood firm and was ready ! 10/10 for attitude so far.

    In my view, rafa’s changed the momentum. HE is the favourite to win this now…

    • That was fenomenal mach, I remember how confident Gulbis was that he can beat Nadal. I still believe that Gulbis plays top 3 game after 8..10 match winning streak.

  20. Pascal Maurier did Rafa a favour issung:that code violation -) it’s rare to see Rafa quite so angry and he started hitting the fluff of the ball.

    S**t a TB.

    • that serve at 3-3 was well within the strike zone of rafa…bad miss!

      Oh my what a point to make it 4-4!! incredible forehand DTL there and a confident sneak in!

  21. NOOOOOOOO he was courageous to hit that inside out forehand. Just could not get around it 100% and missed it wide. bad luck

  22. Rafa has been missing his money shot, that I/O forehand too many times. This is when he really needs to make those shots.

  23. phewwwwwwwww!! solid second serve to save set point…6-6 !

    Now throw in a nasty body serve , rafa and earn a set pt for yourself

  24. Rafa not making those ugly forehand errors….good stuff!

    ARGHH rafa should have gone DTL there or at least with more pace CC….too easy for Zverev

    • absolutely! he earned that set point to the fullest and then that terrible miss.

      I still think Rafa is still the slight favourite

  25. Absolutely delicious!

    Rafa hitting forehand DTL winners is one of the best sights ever in tennis. The way the ball curls in and explodes off the court…amazing

  26. NNY, he is hitting the forehand DTL extremely well now. Now waiting for the inside out forehand to return as well!

    Zverev must be having doubts in his mind now. Rafa returning his serves so damn well now.

    • vamosrafa,

      I had to stop watching for a while after the disappointment of seeing rafa lose the tb.

      Thanks for the update. I am watching again. Great response from Rafa after losing that first set!

      Rafa wins the second set 6-0!

      Well done!

      Now keep it up and get this win!

  27. Rafa’s absolutely brimming with confidence right now. I would be EXTREMELY SHOCKED if he loses this. and there we go, 5-0 ! He is doing EVERYTHING right at the moment.

  28. What is going on here? Zverev seems to have forgotten that he has to win another set. What happened to him?

    The tennis channel commies said that Rafa has made an adjustment and is going for the Zverev forehand.

    Rafa may get a bagel here.

  29. Zverev’s forehand found a new level in that game. Rafa was taken aback… Zverev hit a few forehands in this game which he had not in the entire match.

    SIGH!

  30. It was a mental error on the deuce point…He just floated a backhand to zverev’s forehand without realizing that the German is going after his forehands a lot more now…. Zverev playing better now

  31. Rafa has a weird way of hitting running backhands since 2013..he transfers most of the weight to his right leg (quite unorthodox) and sometimes ends up slightly out of balance…must get good length or the advantage gets lost.

    Anyway, credit to Zverev for turning this around. perhaps the 6-0 worked to his advantage a little bit…. Rafa hasn’t responded that well so far

  32. Nadal thinks he made a statement in second set winning 6:0.
    Zverev is totaly not concerned, he really believes he is better player.

  33. I cannot remember a time when I saw a great player just go out and continue to lose the same way over and over.

    It’s like watching the same match on a loop. Rafa should have won the first set TB. He just gave it away. Now he is letting this third set get away from him.

    It never gets easier.

  34. Rafa’s brilliance to win two points to make it 30-30, Zverev’s nerves to gift rafa a couple of points and finally rafa’s attitude to just not go away!!!

    YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS

  35. don’t want to think too far ahead but how big a boost this win would be for rafa if he is able to find a way here!

  36. Rafa breaks back thanks to Zverev getting a bad case of the jitters.

    Now, can Rafa hold his serve to even it up?

    • I meant to say – sensing!

      Stupid autocorrect!

      The wheels have come off for Zverev and Rafa gets the break.

      Now can Rafa hold his serve and get the win?

      Ed should have continued watching. I guess Rafa needed a break to get the win.

  37. Any other season, I would say Rafa has it. But with this Rafa, I am not sure. Hope he gets its done. At least his confidence will go up a few notches.

  38. I’ve been playing tennis since 7 and just finished at 9 and on way home. I wanted to see match but also wanted to not miss practice. This seems like an epic. Wish I’d seen it. Don’t think I’ll get home in time to see the end. My little brother has been watching though and he told me Zverev really fell apart. Rafa is gonna win now.

    • No one could pay me enough to watch that match again.

      Rafa isn’t back. Zverev just fell apart. Rafa got lucky.

      At least let’s not rewrite reality here. Get excited if Rafa wins this tournament,

  39. So Rafa keeps it together and gets the win. Rafa had some luck and help with Zverev falling apart. But that’s the sport. You have to stay in it until the end.

    Rafa needed this win and his reaction says it all. I’ll take it. A win is a win.

    I did not want to see another ugly loss to someone he never lost to. No way!

    Now I assume they will go to Isner/Nishi. Rafa has his work cut out for him. But he’s still in this and has three wins.

    • . Over the last year, we have had Rafa ‘lose’ over and over and over again. Does not hurt when the rub of green goes the other way 🙂

    • Yes, that is a fair statement. However, a player has to stay in the match and not collapse before the last point.

      Rafa just took advantage of what Zverev gave him. It’s interesting that I said in my pre-match prediction that I thought rafa’s experience would be the difference.

    • Rafa was down 30-0 in the 5-3 game …played so aggressive to reach 30-30…don’t forget that! Zverev faltered on MP but that can happen….

  40. hahahah LOVEDDDDD RAFA’S REACTION!!

    He could not do it against raonic last year and that completely derailed his train…He did not let it happen again.

    Best match of the year?

    Now come to think of it, rafa was one point away from going a double break down at 1-4 ! He hit his best serve of the match to erase that BP.

    He did not give up and rose to the occasion! Zverev was clearly hitting the ball better and harder but rafa’s forehand found a new gear. I have not seen better striking from his forehand in a long long time. I just lost did not think he would miss a forehand!

    How close were we to have another youngster getting a win over Rafa and hearing about Rafa’s decline?

    • Too close for comfort. He virtually hypnotised Zev into making so many errors in the third set.

      I agree he has turned the corner at last. It may take a while before we can celebrate on a regular basis but I am optimistic he has finally shaken the monkey off his back.

  41. Two months ago, Rafa would have lost this match. So I think he has turned the corner. The mental strength and he is backing his shots.

  42. My assessment was spot on. Rafa said that he was surprised by the sudden increase in level of Zverev’s play in the beginning of the third. Rafa needed some time to adapt and was able to do it…..

    I don’t know what will happen in the next matches but this tournament has given him so much positive energy. It must have given a new life to his soul. Beating Muller in that manner (saving BP on 3-3 in the final set) , beating verdasco after saving FIVE set points and now winning this match today!! Losing the first set in that manner and then the response in the third.

    It is not only about Rafa grinding his way to victories but also about the high level of tennis he has shown. He has delivered two bagels so far !

    The second set against Zverev was quite extraordinary…..8 winners to 1 UE ….81mph avg speed on the forehand (much higher than his standard)…. ROS was so good as well..

    I am quite happy! Very very satisfied

    • Wonder if in the late stage of his career, he is actually better on hards than clay as evidenced by his strong fall season

      • haha…don’t think so. Can’t judge anything from his performances in SOuth America… so many factors are at play here…can’t exactly tell what is contributing to the improvement. Is it because of switching back to the Babolat RPM blast strings? Is it because of not having terrible humid conditions here? Is it the absence of Toni (just for a change) and listening only to a difference voice in coach Roig? Or is it just Larry Ellison’s unflinching support? lol

        • Rod Laver in particular has been beaming with pleasure at Rafa’s renaissance all this week. As for Larry Ellison – you would think it was all his own work. BTW, if he has any more botox pumpled into his face it looks like it will explode any minute now 🙂

  43. vamosrafa,

    I am not getting carried away with this win. I am happy that Rafa was able to survive and find a way to win. But he had a lot of help from Zverev who forgot to play until the last point.

    I agree with vmk1 about Rafa catching a break for once and some good fortune. I am very happy for him.

    But he’s got a tough match ahead of him. I do believe that this win will help Rafa. In that sense I am glad for him

    But I am not celebrating like crazy just yet. I have seen a difference in Rafa in these three matches. He has seemed to be more focused and handling the pressure better. He’s played better, too.

    Seeing Rafa do happy and jumping for joy is a good thing!

    • NNY, understandable….but , he is playing so much better and the mentality is better. Let’s not forget he was missing forehands by miles on clay and he was not prepared to face adversity. He is doing it here…

      Not saying this win means rafa’s back…that’s still far away but this is the first REAL step forward I have seen him take this year. That makes me happy.

      And, there was so much doubt his forehand not being the same shot it once was. Today he showed it is still capable of wiping players off the court. Rafa must be feeling a lot better about himself.

      And of course, he will not always to unlucky….deserves some luck….

      • vamosrafa,

        I absolutely agree with you. I noticed a difference in Rafa in his match with Muller. He was much more animated and focused and the body language was so much better. He has been handling the pressure situations in matches this week quite well.

        He’s thinking out there and changing his tactics. The forehand has reappeared, although still inconsistent,

        We are not imagining that there are improvements. It’s true. But for the sake of my emotions, I just have to take it one step at a time. Rafa needed some luck to come his way and I am glad that he got it. Whatever it takes.

        So I am feeling more optimistic about Rafa now. It’s a good thing!

        • haha I understand … one match at a time is fair way of looking at it…

          Would you prefer Isner or Nishi? Nishi is a bad match up but Isner has the best service game.

    • NNY, I said I couldn’t bear to watch but I cheated and peeped from between my fingers. So glad I didn’t miss the climax of the match.

      • Ed,

        Hi! It’s great to know that you were peeking! Good for you! So was I! Doing a little praying to the tennis Gods, too!

        I am just happy that Rafa won! He needs some luck and a few breaks to go his way to get out of this slump. His reaction was very special!

        Chapeau to you for hanging in there! 🙂

  44. I have not seen Rafa hitting his FHs this well in a long time and his serve working well and saving him from trouble on many occasions…I am so pleased the way Rafa never gave up in this match…he fought until the end and it paid off…some brilliant winners from both sides…Zverev played well but Rafa was better throughout the match…Rafa should have won the first set…he was aggressive and brave but got unlucky…the third set was a deserved pay back time…Rafa displays strong attitude and aggression which we have not seen in a while…I am proud of our Rafa!

    This match means volume for Rafa’s confidence! But this victory is well deserved by Rafa who played extraordinary tennis for most of the match…
    Vamos Rafa!

  45. Missed all the matches tonight. I’m sadder than I thought I’d be when I read about how Sascha lost.

    But I know it’s what Rafa and Rafa fans needed, so congrats everybody!
    Kei is about to lose. I see ?
    Simona is bound to lose.
    At least the score looks like a routine win for Nole ole!

    • Nishi hasn’t lost yet. They are in a third set tb.

      It’s 3-3.

      rc,

      Thanks for your kind words about Rafa. He needed a break. I am sorry that it had to come at the expense Zverev, but it’s a learning experience for him. He will only get better.

      • It’s okay. But thanks back to you, Nny. Surprised at myself when I saw the score and at how invested I am on a silly bandwagon. I didn’t realistically think the kid would get farther than the first round! He kept winning, and winning…until Rafa 😉

        Oh poor John, seriously. Kei made it. But sounds like he’ll be easy pickings for Rafa. Fuel for the final?! Will Hawk-eyes come back for it?

          • Don’t worry. I’ve dropped bigger clangers than that in my time 🙂

            I tried to stay awake for the Rafa-Nando match but they were running so late I fell asleep before it had even started. When I checked the results the next morning my heart sank to see – or so I thought – Rafa had been I bagelled in the 1st set. In the ensuing panic I failed to spot that it was Rafa who dished out the bagel. It took a minute or two to realise I must have dreamt the result and all was well. Luckily I hadn’t got as far as posting a comment or I would never have lived it down.

            Gone are the days when I could take all-nighters in my stride!!

      • Both Isner and Nishi present problems for Rafa. Isner is a serving machine who puts so much pressure on his opponents to hold their serve. Rafa doesn’t like to play him.

        Nishi takes the ball so early and hits flat groundstrokes. He has also improved his serving quite a bit.

        It’s going to be tough for rafa.

        • From what I’ve seen of Nole, Nny, he looks too casual or listless and only so-so. But I’ve been worried about him too many times and then he raises his level when it’s time. Thiem or Tsonga will be tough for the QF. Raonic more difficult than Cilic or Monfils, if Nole makes the final. (Not even counting Goffin, sorry to say)

          Kei hasn’t been at his USO 2014 level for quite awhile. I thought Isner has been strong and would have been more of a challenge for Rafa.

          Have been trying to stay awake for Thiem and Tsonga. Don’t think I’m making it!

          • rc,

            I don’t think I can make it to the end of Thiem/Tsonga. It’s getting too late.

            As for Novak, he usually raises his level as he gets to the business end of tournaments. So I don’t put too much on how he looks in the
            early going. I think he’s the favorite to win this. Thiem or Tsonga could be tough, but I think Novak will be ready.

            It’s true that Nishi hasn’t been at his USO 2014 level. But he can still be dangerous. It depends on how Rafa plays. He has to play even better than he did against Zverev.

  46. Serena will need to beat herself to lose this QF. Simona lost the mental battle before she stepped on court. Aga, too. Vika is the great hope to come through the bottom half.

    Serena’s holding a serve clinic!

    • Simona looked oddly happy to lose, Nny. What was that? I’ve been following WTA way more than ATP this IW. It’s been a fun draw. But doesn’t look like too competitive of a final is coming. Halep has been the 2nd best – a distant 2nd best! The bottom half, even Vika – aren’t going to beat Serena when she plays that well!

      I have one foot in Miami.

  47. Rafa’s quotes from his post-match interviews:
    “I’m very happy for the victory, obviously. I was fighting during the whole match,” said Nadal. “It’s obvious that I played against a great player, a player who was serving unbelievable, at the beginning especially. ”
    “I am especially happy about the mentality on court, the fighting spirit during the whole match, believing that I can win a match during the whole time even in the tougher situations. I’m sorry for him. But I think at the same time, I deserve a victory like this after a couple of losses with big chances to win, too.”
    (Source: the tournament website. Official transcripts of press conferences are released on a 24-hour delay.)

    You deserved it, Rafa. ?

    • hahaha…both Andy and Novak do it all the time and I have never seen them get code violation warning for swearing…this is just ridiculous…

      The commentator talked about Zverev (I can’t remember which match was it) saying to the umpire: “you are a moron”…I don’t know if he got any warning for it…I think he didn’t…

      “It won’t happen again”…Rafa is definitely the sweetest person on earth… 🙂
      I adore him for being the way he is…

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