After disposing of David Goffin in his opener, Andy Murray has another marquee matchup on his hands in round two–this time against Andrey Rublev. Friday’s schedule also includes Carlos Alcaraz vs. Matteo Arnaldi.
(5) Andrey Rublev vs. Andy Murray
Rublev and Murray will be squaring off for the third time in their careers when they collide in round two of the BNP Paribas Open on Thursday. They have split their two previous encounters; Murray rolled 6-3, 6-0, 6-2 at the 2017 Australian Open before a much different Rublev got the job done 7-5, 6-2 on the indoor hard courts of Rotterdam in 2022.
This is obviously a much different matchup from the one Murray enjoyed in the first round, when he improved to 8-0 lifetime and 17-0 in total sets against David Goffin with a 6-3, 6-2 beatdown. The 36-year-old Scot will be on the defensive to a much greater extent with Rublev on the other other side of the net. Unlike Goffin, the fifth-ranked Russian is one of the most powerful players on tour–and he is playing well, too, owning a 14-4 record for the season (14-3 if you don’t count a Dubai default against Alexander Bublik). Even if the conditions are playing faster than last year, Murray cannot hit through this court and Rublev most definitely can. This will likely be one-way traffic from start to finish.
Pick: Rublev in 2
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Matteo Arnaldi vs. (2) Carlos Alcaraz
Alcaraz has not played particularly well this season and he retired from his last match with an ankle injury, so he is a bit of a question mark heading into Indian Wells. The second-ranked Spaniard lost to Alexander Zverev in the Australian Open quarterfinals, was upset by Nicolas Jarry at the same stage in Buenos Aires, and got injured in his Rio de Janeiro opener. Alcaraz looked fine during the Netflix Slam this past Sunday…but so did Rafael Nadal, and Nadal ended up withdrawing.
Of course, the respective situations of Nadal and Alcaraz are vastly different and the latter should be ready to go on Friday. Up first for him in the desert is Arnaldi, who lost their only previous encounter 6-3, 6-3, 6-4 at last summer’s U.S. Open. Of course, Arnaldi is already a much improved player just five months later. The 23-year-old Italian is up to No. 40 in the world and he earned his seventh match victory of this young season by beating Luca Van Assche 7-6(6), 7-6(3) on Wednesday afternoon. This contest could be tougher than many expect for Alcaraz, but he should be able to get through it.
Pick: Alcaraz in 3
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Rublev in 2; Carlos in 2.