Andy Murray survived a tough opening match and will continue his Indian Wells campaign against Alexander Bublik on Sunday. Meanwhile, a struggling Matteo Berrettini may have a fight on his hands against a confident Holger Rune.
(31) Alexander Bublik vs. (WC) Andy Murray
Bublik and Murray will be going head-to-head for the third time in their careers when they clash in round two of the BNP Paribas Open on Sunday afternoon. Murray has won both of their previous encounters; 6-1, 6-4, 6-2 at Wimbledon five years ago and 7-6(6), 6-4 earlier this season on the indoor hard courts of Rotterdam. That is hardly a surprise, as Murray has feasted on big servers throughout his career.
Although Bublik is not exactly a one-dimensional power player, he would like to keep points shorter than he will probably have to play in the desert. The 33rd-ranked Kazakh has never won a match at this event, having previously failed in two qualifying attempts. Bublik is off to a strong start in 2022 so this should be more competitive than their first two meetings, but Murray already has a good win under his belt this week over Taro Daniel and will likely handle the conditions better than his opponent.
Pick: Murray in 3
(6) Matteo Berrettini vs. (Q) Holger Rune
The chasm in confidence between Berrettini and Rune may be just as sizable–if not larger–as the difference in rankings. Berrettini comes in at No. 6 in the world while Rune is 86th, but it is the youngster who has all of the momentum right now. Rune already has three match wins under his belt in Indian Wells, having qualified for the main draw (d. Mitchell Krueger and Stefan Kozlov) before beating Ugo Humbert 6-3, 6-2 on Friday.
Berrettini is just 7-5 this season, including 2-4 outside of the Australian Open. The Italian lost early in Rio de Janeiro and then retired from his Acapulco opener because of an abdominal injury that also plagued him at the end of 2021. Given that Berrettini has not played since then and his opponent is 3-0 this week alone, an upset may be in the cards.
Pick: Rune in 3
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Despite all the negative rumors around Berrettini (breaking up with Tomljanovic) and his abdominal medical problem, it’s hard to imagine him losing to Rune. I just can’t see how Rune is going to break Berrettini’s massive serve. Krueger, Kozlov are simply much worse than Berretini in every aspect. It’s ridiculous to compare them to Berrettini. Tottally different league. Humbert is extremely not consistent and in poor shape in this season. I am not a fan of Berrettini, beacuse his tennis is nothing exciting. Just massive serves and massive forehands with poor backhands. But in contrast to Humbert, Berrettini is solid and consistent.
He played good tennis in Australia, reaching there semi-final before losing to eventual champion, tennis god Rafael Nadal.
I think it’s not true that he lost early in Rio. He lost in quarterfinal to eventual champion and young tennis rising star Carlos Alcaraz who is just phenomenal. Still played three sets with Alcaraz so it wasn’t one-sided match like the final between Alcaraz and Schwartzman. Remember that Schwartzman is top player on clay and he couldn’t do much against Alcaraz.
Berrettini was forced to retire match against Tommy Paul in Acapulco. But Berrettini won the first set before actual retiring. Also Tommy proved he is a great player, much better than Rune and he played good tournaments in Acapulco before (for example defeating Zverev there in 2020).
Given all the above I don’t see a solid chance of an upset here. Maybe I’m wrong, but I’m sure Berrettini must be in terrible shape to lose against Rune.
The only real chance of an upset I see here is that Berrettini will be forced to retire again because of some medical problem.
Murray lost 1st set and down a break in second… time for Miami wild card