Indian Wells QF previews and predictions: Sinner vs. Lehecka, Ruud vs. Paul

Jannik Sinner is looking borderline unbeatable, especially with Novak Djokovic now out of the Indian Wells draw. Sinner will try to keep it that way against Jiri Lehecka, while the quarterfinal schedule also includes Casper Ruud and Tommy Paul.

(32) Jiri Lehecka vs. (3) Jannik Sinner

Sinner will try to extend his winning streak to 18 matches when he faces Jiri Lehecka in the BNP Paribas Open quarterfinals on Thursday. The third-ranked Italian is 28-1 in his last 29 dating back to last fall, a stretch that includes the Australian Open title, the Davis Cup title, and a runner-up finish at the Nitto ATP Finals. Sinner is once again in peak form at the Indian Wells Masters, with straight-set victories over Thanasi Kokkinakis, Jan-Lennard Struff, and Ben Shelton.

These two stars of both the present and the future have gone head-to-head just once, when Sinner prevailed 6-4, 6-2 on clay at the 2019 Ostrava Challenger. Lehecka has also climbed considerably since, albeit not to the same extent as his opponent. The 22-year-old is up to 32nd in the rankings, which gave him the very last seed in Indian Wells. He has capitalized by defeating Brandon Nakashima, Andrey Rublev, and Stefanos Tsitsipas. Lehecka is dangerous, but he would probably like the conditions to be faster–especially for this particular matchup. Sinner is simply looking too good here, or anywhere, and Lehecka has never made an appearance in the quarters of a Masters 1000. In fact, the Czech had never even been to a fourth round prior to this fortnight.

Pick: Sinner in 2

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(17) Tommy Paul vs. (9) Casper Ruud

Ruud and Paul will be squaring off for the fifth time in their careers in tournament competition (not including a 2023 Laver Cup encounter won by Ruud). The head-to-head series stands at 3-1 in favor of the Norwegian, who has won three in a row at Paul’s expense since retiring from a 2017 Washington, D.C. contest. All three of Ruud’s victories have come at Grand Slams, including a 7-6(3), 6-7(5), 7-6(2), 5-7, 6-0 decision at the 2022 U.S. Open.

Both guys have been outstanding in 2024, to the extent that this could also be a Nitto ATP Finals matchup down the road. Ruud has won 17 matches on hard courts, already exceeding his entire such total from last season (14). So far this fortnight the world No. 9 has dismissed Lukas Klein, Arthur Fils, and Gael Monfils. Paul is ultimately bidding for his third final appearance on American soil this year (champion in Dallas, runner-up in Delray Beach). The 17th-ranked American improved to 14-4 by beating Alex Michelsen, Ugo Humbert, and Luca Nardi. Matches don’t get much more 50/50 than this one, but head-to-head has favored Ruud and conditions in Indian Wells are great for his game.

Pick: Ruud in 3

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