World No. 4 Roger Federer will take on 2018 Roland Garros finalist Dominic Thiem in the final of Indian Wells on Sunday afternoon. Federer is going for his second consecutive title of the season.
Roger Federer and Dominic Thiem meet for the fifth time on Sunday in the BNP Paribas Open title match. Their head-to-head series is tied 2-2, but neither of Thiem’s wins have come on hard courts. The last time the Austrian beat Federer was in 2016 on the grass courts of Stuttgart, but the two men met just a few months ago at the Nitto ATP Finals–where the 20-time major champion gave Thiem a straight-set shellacking.
This is going to be something of an uphill battle for Thiem. Federer is in fine form and has been since he plowed through the draw in Dubai to take the title. Thiem, by contrast, went into Indian Wells off a first round loss on his preferred surface of clay to world No. 90 Laslo Djere. The Austrian ended up working himself into form throughout the week…and also got a bit lucky when the red-hot Gael Monfils withdrew with an Achilles’ tendinitis injury.
Thiem is typically known as a clay-court specialist; he defeated Rafael Nadal in Madrid in 2018 and fought his way to the finals of Roland Garros. Federer doesn’t have quite the reputation on hard courts as Nadal does on clay, but it’ll still be a big ask for Thiem to get the win.
The Swiss is enjoying far better form than Thiem at the moment. The slower courts at Indian Wells will help level the field a bit, but if Federer plays well it’s hard to imagine him losing.
Cheryl pick: Federer in 2
Ricky pick: Federer in 3
[polldaddy poll=10267284]
Fed in 2
hopefully the 25 yo can beat the 37yo.
Perhaps the relatively slow court will tip the balance in the Austrian’s favour so he can win this big title.
Fed should win but the upset is very possible.
Upset is NOT possible….GOAT in straight.
Fed in 3. But nice to see Thiem playing well again.
Upset very possible. Thiem has at least 45 % chances. I hope Roger gets his 101st title. He looked good here. Not amazing. I am pleased by his form.
I like both guys and I hope it goes 3 and I’d like to see Thiem win, just because it would be somebody different.
I’m really glad that Thiem is in the Final. He’s a guy whom I would really love to see win a Masers title finally. And how weird would it be if Dominic Thiem’s first “big” title was NOT on clay?? It would obviously be a big confidence booster for him going into clay season.
As for Fed, whether or not he wins today, it’s just remarkable that he is even competing at this level at all at his age. I don’t care that Stan is the only great player he has faced so far this tournament- he has looked really damn good at IW given how much he started to slip leading up it.
I also just realized that Fed has at least made the Final of Indian Wells 6 of the last 7 times he’s played in it. Although he’s only won 2 (potentially 3) titles out of those 6 Finals, Indian Wells has really been a consistently good tournament for him in his 30’s. I guess I never really thought of IW has a Fed-friendly tournament. It sort of reminds me of Djokovic at US Open. While Novak has “only” won the US Open 3 times, he’s made the Final 7 of the last 8 times he’s played there, and 8 of the last 11 times. It’s been one of his most consistent tournaments, despite not having a good Final record there.
If Federer can serve well he should win in straights. His ROS will be a lot better than Raonic, and I think Thiem’s serve will be under a lot more pressure than yesterday. However, Fed’s serve hasn’t always been his strong point during this tournament, so it could be tight. I think his relatively easy run will help him in the end. Fed in 2 close sets.
Already thinking about Miami. He lost there last year in round 1. Nice to chance to add some points in his ranking.
Nadal will probably skip it.
I kind of wonder whether Fed will skip Miami, especially if he wins today. If he’s going to play Madrid and RG he’ll need some rest.
H’mm. Good question but Madrid is about 7 weeks off so doubt he’ll skip Miami unless he’s really tired?
Hope this final is half as good as the WTA final.
Thiem worked like a hero to beat Milos. I hope he can get Fed this time. But I don’t care who wins – just hope both can play great tennis.
Voted for Thiem in 3. I never would have picked Thiem to the final – I thought he was as cold as Dimitrov.
Thiem is not playing badly, but Federer’s level so far is insane. Barely 20 minutes and he’s up 4-1.
and barely 25 mins and its 4-3
Good on Thiem to break and he played some good tennis, but still 6-3 to Fed for the first set. Fed has to be careful not give Thiem a lot of cheap points on ROS.
Hello
Fed has a slight meltdown in two straight games. Fails to hit a first serve and gets broken, and then a few questionable net-approaches. I think Roger does this sometimes; his game goes away for no apparent reason. Thiem up 4-1 and looking to take this to a 3rd set.
We could be in for a repeat of 2018 Final here. He seems to struggle the past year with losing belief in the biggest moments.
Could be, though I don’t think it’s a matter of losing belief so much as focus. He definitely didn’t play as well that set, but also some questionable strategy in terms of approaching the net on weak shots (serves and from the baseline).
If I was conspiracy-minded and the guy didn’t get paid $30 million just to wear a shirt, I’d wonder if it was part of a fix.
Watched the replay of Thiem v Raonic semi this morning. Thiem had to focus so hard to beat Raonic. After Milos won the 2nd set tb, I was certain Milos would take the match. Winning was an extremely tough mental and physical achievement for Dominic in the end. Milos was determined and had the crowd behind him. Indian Wells is a most Canadian tournament. Very knowledgeable tennis fans. Not a whiff of pot on them, lol. (like if they were in Canada) Remembering Novak complaining about smelling pot during a match at Toronto or Montreal.
Playing Federer has to feel good by comparison to Milos. If he loses to Fed he’ll be finessed to death. This is not the bludgeoning he took from Milos.
Wow
Whatever happens in this match from now on, I think there RG is not going to be a two horse race any more between Novak and Rafa
Wooooo hoo Dominic you beauty! What a way to take your first masters title
Fed just doesn’t have the mental fortitude to really compete at the highest level anymore. No knock on him- nobody does at his age. But it’s tough to watch him go out like this.
I don’t think that’s quite the right analysis, Kevin. He was competing but didn’t really have a lot of answers for Thiem’s firepower. I thought he should have thrown in a few more slices and maybe tried to bring Thiem to the net more. If you’re going to try to play at the baseline, you just have to go for winners, and Fed’s shots weren’t falling from about the middle of the 2nd set.
He just got beat by the better guy today. If he had maintained the level he started with, Fed would have run away with the match.
I don’t agree it’s the mental fortitude; I feel it’s more physical than mental. Thiem could overpower anyone, even all the big three!
I’m impressed with Thiem’s serve and ROS, esp against Raonic. Against Fed, it’s more tricky because Fed could vary his serves so well and so often. I do feel Thiem was nervous at the beginning of the match, hence he had to fight so hard to hold serve and then lost it and lost the first set. Fed lost a bit of steam in the second set allowing Thiem to take advantage to level the match. Of course, Thiem did raise his level in set two as he knew it would be game over for him if he didn’t.
I’m surprised Fed could rally so well from the baseline in set one, probably he’s still physically fresh, but he was really aggressive in his returns and tried so often to take the ball early; Thiem felt rushed throughout set one I feel. If it’s a younger Fed playing now, I think he’ll win in straight sets, too bad he’s 37 now, not 27!
Congrats to Thiem, and I’ve to say it’s still well done by Fed, to be able to win one and be runner run in another B2B event, at the age of 37. I think if he’s physically fresh, he still can win some more titles, maybe just not B2B ones.
*runner up I mean.
Woohoo, Thiem! 🏆
At least Roger did not worsen his record of losing final set tiebreakers. And by the way it seems in deciding set finals, Roger drops to 24-26
So happy for Thiem, though!! He seems like such a good dude, and he’s awesome to watch when he’s on! Hopefully this gives him confidence going into clay.
Another stat is that it extends the record of a different winner for every tournament this year- now at 19.
Yay! Congrats to Dominic Thiem. Great performance and Fed sincerely happy for Thiem at the net, it seemed. I’m so happy for Dom! Very nice surprise to see him back to playing well.
Fabulous win for Thiem. He did not back down and fully deserves his 1st masters title. I thought Fed was curiously lacking fire, but a lot of that was probably that he was just being over-powered. However, the drop shot at 5-5, 30-all was very poor judgment and probably reflected a lack of confidence in his ability to hit a winner past Thiem at that point. Impossible not to like Thiem, though. Well done!
Agree Joe about that slice. Totally… I think he hesitated to hit a winner, lacked the confidence because Thiem overpowered him.
Yeah, it was quite a short return from Thiem, and Roger would usually blast it into the corner for a winner.
I think what happened today was he got a bit distracted/lost focus in the 2nd set, serving at 1-2. After failing to hit a single first serve in and getting broken he was down 1-4 within a matter of minutes. That gave Thiem confidence and then Fed started losing confidence and started getting tight. Kevin’s probably right that it’s partly age. But give Thiem credit; he was blasting the cover off the ball.
I like Thiem. He deserved to win this title.
Fed’s backhand just annoyed me today. So many simple mistakes. Also the net approaching was uninspired and clumsy. I hope he works on it.
Thiem is hot. He may turn down both Rafa and Djoko at RG.
I got my wish! Congrats to Thiem!
Grats to Theim, he got it the hard way so he earned it. Condolences to Fed. He played well, but maybe ran out of gas a bit? Or just got overpowered?
Thiem just might be a contender at the USO this year, as well as RG, if he can keep up this level.
Congrats Thiemy!!…Wow!…what a win!…To score a win over a legend always impressive!
To fedfans joe,eugene,Big Al & others…Fed is amazing!!…God!…i’m gobsmacked by his high level of tennis at 37 yo!!…Even tho he lost,he’s truly a legend!…SALUTE!!…Best of luck for him for the rest of the year guys!!
Mira as always being so kind.
I’m excited to see what the clay season will bring this year.
Yes, Mira has a very big heart of gold.
And Federer is a legend – we are lucky to still have him playing. IW is not the surface for him in his old age though. Neither was it good for Rafa or Novak. Shoot Novak losing Kohls – nothing at all against Kohls but it was not the performance from Nole that I expected.
Hahahaha…thank u eugene & RC!!…come!u guys deserve an ice cream treat my fans!!hahaha…
No!really!…i am a big fan of the Big 4…Of coz Rafa is my 1st love…but i adore & respect other Big 3 very much!..when Roger retire,i will be sad too!..and very possibly will shed a few unashamed tears!haha…
And Kevin….agree!!….Thiem is the most nicest lad on tour!…Once upon a time,he’s my fave too…but somehow,Andy took over that place…but i still like Thiem…coz i’m a goner for a nice people!hahaha…
I know we can’t really know what any of these players are actually like off the court, but… Does anyone else just get the feeling that Thiem is probably just the nicest, chillest dude in the world haha? I’ve just always been drawn to the guy, for both his game and how he appears to very humble and friendly.
Not only that, he’s not a playboy, unlike that Dimitrov guy! Thiem seems to be a nice and sweet guy, and he’s serious with his career and I like and appreciate that; I hope Tsitsipas is also like Thiem even though he has a blessed beautiful face.
Well, Rafa says that Thiem is a “top person” so he probably is. 🙂
Hahahahaha….anyone else have Thiem 7-5 20/1 last set? 😂😂😂
Thiem 7-5 last set was 20/1 😂😂😂🎉🎊
It’s so difficult to win a Masters title, even for a player of Fed’s calibre and even when he’s not meeting Rafa or Djoko along the way. It makes me appreciate what Rafa and Djoko have done at the Masters, winning 33 and 32 Masters titles respectively, in this competitive era.
In the last decade, Fed had won 16 Masters, Rafa 15 and Djoko 5. In this decade, Djoko alone has already won 27 Masters so far, and we still have 8 more Masters to go before the end of this decade. He has won 27 out of 82 Masters played in this decade, ie 33%, simply incredible. Rafa has 18, ie 22% and Fed 11, ie 13%.
Isn’t it funny that Fed trails Rafa and Novak in all stats save for weeks at #1 and number of slams won, basically helped by being on the tour longer, yet he’s trumpeted as the greatest player of all time? That accolade is soooooo out of date and undeserved.
Rafa’s numbers would have been even higher had he not been sidelined for months most years with injury. It’s a constant cycle of injury and recuperation for Rafa. Since 2012, he’s hardly played a full season.
Not undeserved at all Nadline.
That’s disrespectful towards him, and not because it’s coming from a Rafa fan, but in general.
Why don’t you give any credits for the ability to stay on tour longer? It means sacrificing a lot of things at that age, playing aggressively in order to save body energy, tiredness, adapting to a game style that is less prone to injuries etc
Eugene, none of the above makes a player the GOAT.
Federer is far out in front of Novak and Rafa in the GOAT stakes, leading them in many categories as you can see if you care to look. Nadal may have lost his chance to overtake Novak for #2; I also think it is likely at this point that Novak will finish with at least as many slams as Rafa.
But they are the three GOATs compared to the rest.
https://www.ultimatetennisstatistics.com/goatList
You haven’t really factored in the lack of grass Masters there, or Federer’s lead in overall titles.
Nadal may have been unlucky with injuries, but they also can’t be neatly extricated from his overall playing style.
Fedr has not dominated grass anything close to Rafa’s domination of clay. In his first 4 Wimbledons, Federer made three 1st rounds and one QF. In 20 years of playing Wimbledon, Fedr has won it only 8 times, less than 50% of the time which doesn’t suggest to me that he would have won almost all the grass Masters if they existed.
Nadline is right; Fed couldn’t dominate on grass the way Rafa could on clay, so dont expect Fed to dominate the grass Masters the way Rafa could the clay Masters. Also, if Rafa and Djoko had more chances to play on grass, they might even get better on grass and so might win even more on grass.
I never compared his dominance on grass to Rafa’s records on clay, or said he would dominate the grass masters. I’m just saying that it would clearly be to his advantage to have them.
It may not be, as Djoko (and Rafa during 2007-2010) would also benefit from playing more on grass. Fed’s advantage might be during 2003-2007, thereafter, he would have first Rafa and then Djoko to deal with.
The surface still advantages him more than any other, imo it would make a significant difference, even more so if you replaced existing clay/HC Masters with grass.
Other than last year, Rafa has not been much of a factor on grass for several years. Djokovic is fine on it, but grass is to Fed’s advantage more than it is his.
Read again, as I’d said earlier on, Fed’s advantage was most likely during 2003-2007, Rafa would be able to win some during 2007-2010 and Djoko from 2011 onwards.
Also, if they replace the HC masters with grass, then Fed’s overall tally would not differ much as some of the HC masters won would be replaced by the grass ones.
Much as I rate Djokovic, I don’t feel like he really had it over Fed on grass till Fed was physically a lesser player (2013 onwards). He would no doubt win a few of 2013-16, but he’d be more vulnerable to other players in the draw than on a HC.
When someone puts up numbers like Rafa’s on clay, but on every surface, I’ll be happy to declare him the GOAT of mens’ tennis. Until then, the GOAT is a mythical beast, seen only in dreams.
Exactly, Ramara.
I’m not saying we should him Goat. He is one of them on that elite list.
Of course, Fedr is one of the elite players ever, no one is disputing that.
That’s why I call Nadal the clay GOAT and Federer the off-clay GOAT. Djokovic may yet wrest the latter mantle from Fed, but no one will ever surpass Nadal on clay.
Rafa would disagree with you there, Joe. He always says “If I did it someone else can do it.” (To which I say “maybe, but not soon”)
#recordsaremadetobebroken
That’s just Rafa’s humility, but even he can’t deny that he is the clay GOAT until someone surpasses him.
Maybe, but I would put Nadal’s 11 RG titles as top of the list of open-era tennis records that will never be broken.
Nah, Fed may be just the Goat on grass; Djoko may win a few more HC slams and a few more WTF to surpass Fed on the HCs. He already has more HC masters than Fed now.
No one in the history of tennis has come close to Rafa’s dominance on clay on any other surface. He won 81 straight matches on clay and not only does he have 11 RG titles he’s also got 11 Monte Carlo and Barcelona titles, plus 8 in Rome. No one else dominates any surface to this extent.
Interesting to do the stats:
Fed has 9 Halle, 8 Wimbledon.
He also has 8 Dubai, 7 Cincy, 9 Basel, 6 AO, 6 WTF, 5 USO and 5 IW, mighty impressive on two surfaces.
Djoko has 7 AOs, 6 Miami, 6 Beijing, 5 IWs, 5 WTFs and 4 each of Canada/Shanghai/Paris, mighty impressive too.
On the HCs, Fed has 11 slams, 21 Masters and 6 WTFs;
Djoko has 10 slams, 24 Masters and 5 WTFs. They are very close on the HCs, and I won’t be surprised that Djoko may surpass Fed on the HCs one day, as he’s six years younger than Fed.
Just the GOAT on grass , what about the GOAT Wimby -US Open double ?
Djokovic does of course have the Djoko Slam, and on course for another.That would be some achievement !
How about Djoko the slow hard court GOAT, and Fed the fast ?
Indoor GOAT: Not sure !
Nah, how can Fed be the fast court goat when there are/were Sampras, Connors etc who played and won on really fast surfaces??
People just forget about the past legends so easily when they’re quick and eager to anoint Fed or Djoko as Goat. They’re not the goat on indoor surfaces too, go and check how many indoor titles the past greats and legends won on them, esp on carpet.
If you want to go into specifics, how about winning the channel slams, or winning on three different surfaces at the slams within the same calendar year??
And, that reminds me of how great Rafa is on clay, that he has won the most titles among all on clay, and won the most number of slams on clay; I think to call him the greatest on clay is indisputable.
Borg was the undisputed GOAT of the Channel Slam.
Connors maybe the overall hard court GOAT because of his longevity
Its all about records, since standards change so much , in technology, training etc.
No, Connors is the Goat on carpet, not the HCs. He has won 40+ titles on carpet, about 40% of his overall titles. He has about 54 titles on indoor surfaces ( carpet plus HCs) so he’s the indoor Goat!
He has fewer HC titles than Fed and Djoko, fewer HC slams too, so no, he’s not the HC Goat. I’ve to say Connors is really something, he has won many titles indoor and outdoor, and across all surfaces too – 45 on carpet ( ie indoors), 43 on HCs (including 10 on indoor HCs), 9 on grass and 12 on clay, he’s simply amazing!
I’d say Connors is the US Open GOAT, also.
Here, here, Ramara! How could we possibly choose one of them as objective “greater” than the other when they have accomplished such extraordinary heights in their own 3 totally unique ways?
A nice analysis of what went wrong for Fed in his match yesterday, focusing on the BH return of serve:
https://www.atptour.com/en/news/federer-thiem-indian-wells-2019-brain-game
Interesting, Joe. Love the Brain Game guy. I wonder if Fed’s backhand didn’t just wear down under Thiem’s constant attack. Age can’t help with that, good as Fed still looks out there. Big strong guy, high bounce out there in the desert, gotta be fatiguing.
Fed’s improved BH is like Rafa’s improved serve; ie it couldn’t sustain and when under pressure, more often then not, it would break down.
Fed should regret not getting a great SHBH from young, just like Rafa not getting a great serve from young. If I’m not wrong, Djoko used to have a not so great FH, but somehow he improved on that and from 2011 onwards, his FH hardly breaks down. He’s now so lethal at both wings, maybe his FH wasn’t that ‘bad’ to start with.
The commentator said conditions were perfect for Federer, but Id say they were a lot nearer perfect for Thiem , even with Feds titles here.
Roger will win lol
Be a very long time if ever before anybody surpasses Rafa and wins 12 FOs, doubt that will happen in my lifetime anyway ….