Indian Wells Masters preview and predictions

A whole host of top players missed last year’s BNP Paribas Open, and Novak Djokovic might as well have been absent. This time around, the majority of the best in the business are on hand in the desert—minus defending champion Juan Martin Del Potro. Thus begins the annual Masters 1000 swing through California and Florida, starting with an Indian Wells event that features Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer on the same side of the draw.

BNP Paribas Open

Where: Indian Wells, Calif.
Surface: Hard
Points: 1000
Prize money: $8,359,455

Top seed: Novak Djokovic
2018 champion: Juan Martin Del Potro (not playing)

Draw analysis: Djokovic skipped the February swing, meaning he has not played a match since winning a third consecutive Grand Slam at the Australian Open. The top-ranked Serb hit a low point during the 2018 Indian Wells-Miami “Sunshine Double” last year, but he storms into March this season as the obvious best player in the world. He will kick off his fortnight against either Bjorn Fratangelo or Elias Ymer before possibly running into Acapulco champion Nick Kyrgios in third round. An in-form Gael Monfils is a potential opponent in round four, while Dominic Thiem and Borna Coric are possible quarterfinal adversaries.

Alexander Zverev has not quite gotten going as he tries to build on his Nitto ATP Finals triumph last fall, although he at least managed to reach the Acapulco final this past week. Zverev awaits either his brother or Martin Klizan in his Indian Wells opener, while Milos Raonic and a red-hot Stefanos Tsitsipas loom large in the German’s section.

In the other half, Federer’s Indian Wells draw appears to be a friendly one aside from a likely all-Swiss affair with Stan Wawrinka in the third round. Kei Nishikori and Marin Cilic are potential semifinal foes; neither one is playing especially great tennis at the moment.

Is a Federer-Nadal semifinal in the cards? Federer’s bid for a third straight Aussie Open title was a disappointing one, but he restored order with a title last week in Dubai. Nadal has also been solid but unspectacular in 2019. The second-ranked Spaniard returned from his latest injury woes with a runner-up performance in Melbourne and a second-round exit from Acapulco (lost to Kyrgios after leading 6-3 in a final-set tiebreaker). Nadal’s road through the desert could feature a confident Daniil Medvedev in the last 16 and John Isner in the quarters.

First-round contests to watch include Wawrinka vs. Daniel Evans, Philipp Kohlschreiber vs. Pierre-Hugues Herbert, Cameron Norrie vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime, Steve Johnson vs. Taylor Fritz, John Millman vs. Jan-Lennard Struff, and Tomas Berdych vs. Feliciano Lopez.

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Seeds at risk of losing their first match:

(12) Karen Khachanov: Khachanov has been a disaster so far this year and Berdych is perhaps the most dangerous unseeded player in the field.

(22) Kyle Edmund: Edmund won the Indian Wells Challenger last week, but the jury remains out on his form and Frances Tiafoe would be a tough second-round opponent.

(26) Grigor Dimitrov: Both Millman and Struff wield upset potential against Dimitrov, who has not been the same since winning the 2017 Nitto ATP Finals.

(28) Lucas Pouille: A struggling Pouille awaits either Donald Young (who beat him back-to-back in Indian Wells and Miami two years ago) or Hubert Hurkacz (who stunned Nishikori in Dubai).

(29) Marton Fucsovics: Don’t mind the seed; in reality Fucsovics would be an underdog against Stan Wawrinka in round two.

(30) Laslo Djere: Djere wouldn’t have even made the main draw without his shocking title in Rio de Janeiro. He is extremely vulnerable now that he is no longer playing on clay.

(31) Nick Kyrgios: Is Kyrgios satisfied with his Acapulco success, or will he remain motivated? Either way, Kohlschreiber or Herbert could be difficult.

(32) Guido Pella: Pella is coming off his first career title on the clay courts of Sao Paulo. Making a quick turnaround to hard courts may be a problem both physically and mentally.

Hot: Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Daniil Medvedev, Marco Cecchinato, Gael Monfils, Roberto Bautista Agut, Laslo Djere, Nick Kyrgios, Guido Pella, Reilly Opelka, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Hubert Hurkacz, Mackenzie McDonald, Radu Albot, Daniel Evans, Ugo Humbert, Alexei Popyrin

Cold: Kevin Anderson, Dominic Thiem, Pablo Carreno Busta, David Goffin, Kyle Edmund, Grigor Dimitrov, Philipp Kohlschreiber, Mischa Zverev, Donald Young, Joao Sousa, Jared Donaldson, Denis Istomin, Tatsuma Ito

Quarterfinal predictions: Novak Djokovic over Nikoloz Basilashvili, Stefanos Tsitsipas over Alexander Zverev, Roger Federer over Denis Shapovalov, and Daniil Medvedev over Tomas Berdych

Semifinals: Djokovic over Tsitsipas and Federer over Medvedev

Final: Djokovic over Federer

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