February was all about quantity. March is all about quality. A move from one month to the next not only marks a significant change in the weather but also a drastic transition on the professional tennis circuit. In February there were tournaments left and right week after week; in March there are just two: Indian Wells and Miami.
The Sunshine Double kicks off this week with the BNP Paribas Open, where both Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal have returned after missing last year’s festivities. They are part of an absolutely jam-packed ATP field that features every single one of the top 35 players in the world.
Here is a breakdown of the bracket and my predictions.
BNP Paribas Open
Where: Palm Springs, California
Surface: Hard
Points: 1000
Prize money: $9,495,555
Top seed: Novak Djokovic
Defending champion: Carlos Alcaraz
Draw analysis: Until Jannik Sinner loses a match in 2024 (he is a perfect 12-0 so far), it’s hard to justify getting off the bandwagon. The 22-year-old won both the Australian Open and Rotterdam, propelling him to No. 3 in the rankings. Sinner’s Indian Wells draw is decent (he is on the opposite side from Djokovic, for example), but things could get difficult starting in week two. Ben Shelton is a potential fourth-round opponent for Sinner, after which the Italian could face Andrey Rublev in the quarterfinals and Carlos Alcaraz in the semis.
Alcaraz is the defending champion in the desert but he is stumbling into his title defense having not won a tournament since Wimbledon last summer. No, his Netflix Slam victory over Nadal is not going to suddenly restore his confidence (even though it was a good match by exhibition standards!). The second-ranked Spaniard may have to be in top gear right away at the season’s first Masters 1000 event because his first opponent will probably be an in-form Matteo Arnaldi. Alcaraz could run into Doha champion Karen Khachanov in the last 16 and Acapulco winner Alex de Minaur in the quarters. De Minaur and Alexander Zverev, both of whom have realistic title aspirations, are on a collision course for round four.
At the top of the bracket, Djokovic is on course to meet Marseille and Dubai champ Ugo Humbert in the fourth round. Hubert Hurkacz is a possible quarterfinal foe for the top-ranked Serb. Hurkacz may not be completely on fire at the moment, but he is guy you never want to see on the other side of the net since he can take the racket out of just about anyone’s hands.
Of course, the biggest story of the Indian Wells draw ceremony was always going to Nadal’s placement. Obviously unseeded at No. 652 in the rankings, the 37-year-old Spaniard landed in the Daniil Medvedev-Holger Rune section of the bracket and will begin his latest comeback to tennis against Milos Raonic on Thursday night. Nadal will face Rune if he wins, after which potential opponents include Lorenzo Musetti (third round) and Taylor Fritz (fourth round).
In addition to Nadal vs. Raonic, first-round matchups to watch include Denis Shapovalov vs. Botic van de Zandschulp, Gael Monfils vs. Max Purcell, and Stan Wawrinka vs. Tomas Machac.
Hot: Jannik Sinner, Alex de Minaur, Grigor Dimitrov, Ugo Humbert, Tommy Paul, Sebastian Baez, Adrian Mannarino, Tallon Griekspoor, Alex Michelsen, Patrick Kypson, Flavio Cobolli, Tomas Machac, Alejandro Tabilo, Jakub Mensik, Marcos Giron, Jordan Thompson, Matteo Arnaldi
Cold: Holger Rune, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Frances Tiafoe, Francisco Cerundolo, Lorenzo Musetti, Fabio Fognini, Bernabe Zapata Miralles, Botic Van de Zandschulp, Denis Shapovalov, Milos Raonic, Rafael Nadal, Pedro Cachin, J.J. Wolf
Quarterfinal predictions: Hubert Hurkacz over Novak Djokovic, Taylor Fritz over Grigor Dimitrov, Jannik Sinner over Andrey Rublev, and Alex de Minaur over Carlos Alcaraz
Semifinals: Fritz over Hurkacz and Sinner over De Minaur
Final: Sinner over Fritz
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