Indian Wells final preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Raonic

Novak Djokovic and Milos Raonic will be squaring off for the sixth time in their careers when they battle for the BNP Paribas Open title on Sunday afternoon.

Djokovic is sweeping the head-to-head series 5-0 and he is 13-1 in total sets against Raonic. They have not faced each other since the quarterfinals of the 2015 Australian Open, in which Djokovic prevailed 7-6(5), 6-4, 6-2. Raonic took the first set from the Serb on the clay courts of Rome in 2014 before eventually succumbing 6-7(5), 7-6(4), 6-3.

The two-time defending champion in Indian Wells, Djokovic has made a return trip to the final with victories over Bjorn Fratangelo, Philipp Kohlschreiber, Feliciano Lopez, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and Rafael Nadal. The top-ranked Serb dropped his opening set of the fortnight to Fratangelo but has since gone unblemished.
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Raonic’s run to a third career Masters 1000 title match has come as a surprise, but only because he missed all of February with an adductor injury. The 14th-ranked Canadian had previously been in outstanding form, with a title in Brisbane and a semifinal performance at the Aussie Open. His first tournament since the layoff has featured defeats of Inigo Cervantes, Bernard Tomic, Tomas Berdych, Gael Monfils, and David Goffin. Only the Belgian managed to snag a set on Saturday but he ultimately went down 6-3, 3-6, 6-3.

“It’s a difficult matchup,” Raonic commented. “I think that I have added good things to my tennis that can help me in that aspect. It’s going to be important to control the center of the court; obviously be the one that’s moving less.

“I think if I can play with a forceful attitude like I did in the third (against Goffin), I can have my opportunities. I think for me my game-plan is simple: it’s about dictating. I don’t think it’s so much about who’s on the other side of the net.”

“Milos is probably playing the best tennis that he has ever played,” Djokovic praised. “I think looking at his performances this year…it’s quite impressive. His serve was phenomenal before the start of this season, but this season it seems like he has improved even more, especially the second serve…. We are playing [in the final], so I’ll try to also use the experience that I have had playing in many Masters Series finals in this tournament.”

Experience may be a factor, but the bottom line is that this is simply not a good matchup for Raonic–and it’s not for anyone else right now, either. Djokovic is returning better than every other player in the game, so the underdog will have to be prepared for his serve to come back more often than usual. The surface is not a bad one for Raonic, but he would prefer to face Djokovic on either grass or a lightning-fast indoor hard court.

Pick: Djokovic in 2 with at least one tiebreaker

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58 Comments on Indian Wells final preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Raonic

  1. Nole in straights with at least one breaker though he may win without one. And it could go the other way with two tiebreak sets if Raonic is serving super well. If he’s serving lights out he could take a set and maybe the match but I don’t see him bringing an out of this world performance. Novak to claim an amazing sixth title in the desert of Indian Wells.

    • LOL! Not likely!

      I actually think that Roanic can make a match of this. Novak hasn’t been at his best and he didn’t need to be against Rafa. But Raonic has shown mental strength and toughness. If he comes out there with belief that he can win, then things could be interesting.

  2. Hoping Milos wins..but thats just the heart ..Am okay with anyone to beat Novak..I mean anyone on tour to dent his confidence and bring him back to earth 🙂

    • Good point…let’s see how he fares against other top guys..I think he will take care of Fed in 2 sets… Fed will be rusty and rafa is improving…In fact, even if fed were playing well, would still give the edge to Rafa.

      • vamosrafa,

        I agree. I would love to see how Rafa does against Fed, Murray and Stan in Miami.

        The thing that concerns me is Rafa being outside the top four. He got a break with Fed being out and moving up to #4. But he will be back to #5 in Miami. He could still face Novak in the quarterfinals. We just have to hope it doesn’t happen.

  3. Yes if Rafa can handle the other top 10 apart from Novak, he can get lucky by avoiding being in Novaks part of draw and hoping someone else to take him out

  4. Already we see that Novak has come out playing so much better in the final.

    Raonic and his big serve was still broken by Novak in his first service game. We see how Novak paces himself in the earlier rounds, doing just enough to win.

    How many times have we seen Novak raise his level of play in the final of a tournament? He knows exactly what he has to do. I thought that Raonic might make this interesting, but right now it’s not looking too good.

  5. Okay, what happened there? I could not watch.

    I picked Milos for the first time and THIS happened..LOL LOL

    how can Milos win only two service games??

    • I stopped watching after the first set. Then I checked back to see Brad Gilbert interviewing Novak. He said that Raonic told him that he reunited that groin muscle. So Novak said that he was not at 100%.

      • NNY: There’s no need to keep apologising. We can usually guess what people said before autocorrect interfereed. lol

        I fell asleep ‘waiting for the paint to dry’ – just checked in to find out how it ended. Disjointed groin muscle or not, the outcome would have been much the same albeit slightly less lopsided.

        • ed,

          Thanks for understanding. I never used to post on my iPhone, so I didn’t have this problem.

          Sometimes I don’t always catch the mistakes. I guess it happens to all of us!

          I just sensed that the match was not competitive and decided to change the channel.

          I do think that Raonic would have held serve more if he was completely healthy. But Novak really stepped it up today.

          I just really hope that Rafa can keep playing well. We really need him back.

  6. A pity that Rafa didnt win the first set of the SF. Who knows, had he won that he might have a chance to reach the final and capitalized on Raonic’s injury and subpar performance! Such were the missed opportunities of Rafa, had he won some of those close encounters last and this year, his confidence would be back by now. His team wasnt doing a good job to help tackle his problem, waited for too long when damage was already done.

      • Yes, I can agree with those sentiments. I do think it could have made a difference if Rafa had managed to win that first set. With all of the recent defeats against Novak, Rafa needed that first set to give him belief and a boost of confidence.

        I also believe that Novak not looking that good in the first set had everything to do with Rafa. Rafa was going toe to toe with him, using his forehand so well and being aggressive. It’s been said that maybe Rafa doesn’t get enough credit in matches. In this case, I think Rafa took Novak out of his comfort zone with some of his tactics.

        Now he just has to try and maintain that level of play for more than a set and a half.

        I did find myself thinking about how Rafa’s team waited too long to deal with his problems.

        I just hope that Rafa takes positives out of this tournament. We need him back in this sport.

        • —I did find myself thinking about how Rafa’s team waited too long to deal with his problems.—
          ===
          .
          I wonder what problems.

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