It will be a surprising BNP Paribas Open final between two players currently outside the top 10 when Holger Rune and Jack Draper collide on Sunday afternoon. But one of them–and maybe both–will be in the top 10 on Monday.
Draper clinched his debut in the top 10 by upsetting Carlos Alcaraz 6-1, 0-6, 6-4 in the semifinals on Saturday. The 23-year-old will find himself at No. 8 in the world next week if he lifts the trophy and No. 9–behind Rune–if he loses.
It has been a fantastic fortnight Draper, and really his entire season has been outstanding so far. The British left-hander is sporting an 12-2 record and he has lost only one completed match (he retired against Alcaraz in the Australian Open fourth round). Draper has advanced to a first-ever Masters 1000 final with victories over Joao Fonseca, Jenson Brooksby, Taylor Fritz, Ben Shelton, and Alcaraz.
Rune peaked as high as No. 4 late in 2023 but has since fallen to No. 13. The 21-year-old struggled for much of last season and won only half of his first 12 matches in this 2025 campaign. However, it has all turned around for him in the desert. Rune is through to his fourth Masters 1000 final (1-2 record) after defeating Corentin Moutet, Ugo Humbert, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Tallon Griekspoor, and Daniil Medvedev.
The only previous meeting between Rune and Draper came at last summer’s Cincinnati Masters, where the Dane cruised 6-4, 6-2. However, that was the day after Draper beat Felix Auger-Aliassime in an extremely controversial three-set thriller. He was totally out of it mentally against Rune.
Draper is most definitely locked in now, and he also appears to be in better physical shape than at any other point in his career. Relatively warm, sunny conditions in the mid-afternoon with little to no wind should also be advantageous for the world No. 14, who–unlike Medvedev, for example–can win a lot of free points on serve and with first-strike tennis from the back of the court.
The biggest title of Draper’s career could be incoming.
Pick: Draper in 2
WWW?
Alcaraz was bad today. Rune to peak and take his 2nd masters
Draper is playing well. But he won against an erratic alcaraz who struggled to beat a clay courter (Cerundolo) yesterday. But Rune won against a peak or near peak playing medvedev and has maintained his high level this whole tournament. So did draper too but holger is at a slightly higher level especially his defense and counterpunching skills. Holger +3.5 is a STEAL. Rune should be the FAV instead of Draper in my opinion. But that is how the bookies play. Hide the real winner and put them as underdogs! But this should be a tight close match be it a 2 set or 3 sets and a thriller! OVER should easily win! Rune and Draper may turn out to be like FEDERER and NADAL and their rivalry will be cherished in many more big tournaments!
Simply not sure.
Draper in 3, but it could come down to one fluky third-set moment.
P. S. Rune/Draper like Roger/Rafa? I truly don’t see that.