Indian Wells R3 previews and predictions: Federer vs. Wawrinka, Nadal vs. Schwartzman

It will be another all-Swiss affair between Roger Federer and Stan Wawrinka when the two veterans meet again in Indian Wells on Tuesday. Rafael Nadal is also in third-round action, as he takes the court against Diego Schwartzman.

Stan Wawrinka vs. (4) Roger Federer

Federer and Wawrinka will be facing each other for the 25th time in their careers when they clash in round three of the BNP Paribas Open on Thursday. The head-to-head series stands at a dominant 21-3 in favor of Federer, and Wawrinka has never defeated his fellow Swiss on anything other than clay (twice in Monte-Carlo and once at the French Open). Federer has taken their last five encounters dating back to the 2015 U.S. Open, including a 6-4, 7-5 victory in the final of this same Indian Wells event two years ago.

Wawrinka almost didn’t get another shot at the 20-time Grand Slam champion in the desert. The 33-year-old went up against Marton Fucsovics on Sunday night and a three-hour and 24-minute thriller ensured, with Wawrinka finally prevailing 6-4, 6-7(5), 7-5. He preceded that triumph with a 6-7(3), 6-3, 6-3 defeat of Daniel Evans, while Federer followed up an opening bye by beating Peter Gojowyczk 6-1, 7-5. With a full gas tank, the world No. 4 should be able to wear down Wawrinka and continue his mastery of this matchup.

Pick: Federer in 2

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(25) Diego Schwartzman vs. (2) Rafael Nadal

Prior to arriving in Indian Wells, Nadal had played just two matches since finishing runner-up at the Australian Open. But these conditions are just what the doctor ordered for the second-ranked Spaniard, who should be able to dictate things more in the desert than he could in Acapulco (lost to eventual champion Nick Kyrgios in the second round). Nadal is 51-10 lifetime at this tournament with three titles, and he blasted Jared Donaldson 6-1, 6-1 on Sunday.

Up next for the 32-year-old is a seventh career contest against Schwartzman, who is 0-6 lifetime in the head-to-head series. Schwartzman has twice taken a set–first at the 2018 Australian and again in more surprising fashion a few months later at the French Open (lost 4-6, 6-3, 6-2, 6-2). The 26th-ranked Argentine has been struggling of late, with a 1-3 record in his last four matches prior to defeating Roberto Carballes Baena 6-3, 6-1 in his Indian Wells opener. A healthy, well-rested Nadal has every reason to continue his thorough domination of an opponent who does not have the necessary firepower to seriously compete in this matchup.

Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 5-7 games

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13 Comments on Indian Wells R3 previews and predictions: Federer vs. Wawrinka, Nadal vs. Schwartzman

  1. I thought Rafa came out playing much better, especially his serve. He looked very focused. Schwartzman did not play as well as he has against Rafa in the past. The first set looked like it might be another slugfest, but Rafa took over in the second set.

    Nice job from Rafa!

  2. So happy that Rafa didn’t need to spend too much time and energy beating Schwartz this time. I know Schwartz is such a tough opponent for anyone, a great competitor and most of the time, he would drag his opponent into grinding battles with his offence plus defence game. I hope he stays far away from Rafa in the draws!

  3. Fed looking extremely sharp in this match. His BH seems to have improved, or maybe it’s that this slow court suits it well. He’s hitting it at least as hard as Stan’s, which is unusual. Not hitting a high pct. of 1st serves, but everything else looks very good. It would be nice for him to take this is straights.

  4. Rafa is playing way better yes. Love it when his shots go deeper and he is hitting much harder. I still prefer he runs around a little lesser but thats just me.

    • PK, Rafa is born to run, so don’t expect him to stand there and serve big and plays three shots tennis all the time; he’ll soon lose interest in playing tennis!

      Rafa will always be the counterpuncher, it’s deeply ingrained in him – the counterpunching mindset, ever since his success on clay as a teenager. His more offensive and dictating game when he’s sixteen/seventeen had been left behind; he’s now trying to play that way again but has difficulty in blending more offensive play with his baseline game, ie he’s a bit confused when to be offensive and when not to.

      He said he’s too aggressive at some points during the match and so he slowed down and changed the rhythm a bit. I guess he needs to practice more to get the balance right. When he was younger, he had his offensive game played so naturally as if he didn’t even need to think; after so many years of grinding and counterpunching, he’s having a hard time getting his offensive game right and not overdoing it.

      When Fedal get ‘old’, they revert back to the game which they played when they were just starting out in the main tour – Fed back to his net rushing game, and Rafa back to his more aggressive and offensive game; that show us they’re adapting all the time during their career.

      • Lucky, Very interesting. Its nice to have a different perspective of looking at things. So thanks for that. I think I get it. He needs to be playing his kind of tennis and be in the moment and be battle-hardened I guess. And yeah saw what he said about having to slow down a bit.

        I do not have any problems when his groundstrokes go deeper. I dont see anyone beating him easy when that happens. And short angles are ok but kinda exposes him a bit when he has to be on the defensive and not getting the time for his swing. Gets him running side to side and I start wondering he should be the one doing that early on to the opponent.

        I was quite surprised Hantuchova said there is not anyone that can challenge him at the moment. I hope that is true. I hope he mixes it right in the next few rounds and as long as he keeps winning, thats all that matters to me. Would bring a big deal of confidence that he needs if he won on a hard court prior to clay.

  5. Rafa has been playing well since the start of the season. He had 3 match points against Kyrgios and hardly put a foot wrong until the final in Australia where he seemed deflated for some reason. Jared was aggressive and Rafa just donated 2 games in the whole match. Diego couldn’t keep up with Rafa shortening the points yesterday.

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